DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the Canadian Prairies with troughs in the East, California, and the North Pacific. All features will progress eastward throughout the weekend at varying speeds, but will keep an overall active pattern in place.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The ridge will try to re-establish itself back in the West next week, leaving an overall trough across the Central and East. This may be a little more of a stagnant pattern through mid-July.

The U.S. and European models are relatively similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A system that moves through the Midwest over the weekend could have its front stall out in the region for early next week or push a little farther south into the Southeast. Models are unsure. Additional disturbances will move through early, mid, and late next week across the north, keeping the showers going there. A tropical storm may develop this weekend from an old stalled boundary near the Gulf or Southeast coasts that will need monitoring as well.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...118 AT STOVEPIPE WELLS, CA

LOW TUE...31 AT PETER SINKS, UT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT TUESDAY...BROWNSVILLE, TX 4.74 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the Canadian Prairies with troughs in the East, California, and the North Pacific. All features will progress eastward throughout the weekend at varying speeds, but will keep an overall active pattern in place. The ridge will try to re-establish itself back in the West next week, leaving an overall trough across the Central and East. This may be a little more of a stagnant pattern through mid-July.

The U.S. and European models are relatively similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A system that moves through the Midwest over the weekend could have its front stall out in the region for early next week or push a little farther south into the Southeast. Models are unsure. Additional disturbances will move through early, mid, and late next week across the north, keeping the showers going there. A tropical storm may develop this weekend from an old stalled boundary near the Gulf or Southeast coasts that will need monitoring as well.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Isolated showers will be possible over the next couple of days. A system will move into the region on Thursday night and is likely to produce widespread showers and thunderstorms for Friday and Saturday. Overall, active weather continues next week as well with multiple disturbances moving through. Though some drought exists and more rain is needed, precipitation is generally coming at a good pace for the region, with drought concerns likely to ebb and flow between which areas get hit and which get missed over the next few weeks.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Wetness is still an issue for winter wheat harvest in some areas, though the rainfall has been largely favorable for corn and soybean development where severe weather and flooding have not occurred. A front is stalled near the Red River, where showers continue for the next couple of days as well as farther south throughout Texas. Another system will move into the region on Friday with more widespread showers and thunderstorms likely into next week. Additional disturbances will follow it with more showers and storms likely as well.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Limited northern showers and increasing temperatures are expected the next few days. The drier trend will not last though as another system moves through over the weekend with a very slow-moving front likely to linger into next week. Another system is likely to move through in the middle of next week and another disturbance probably moves through over the weekend. Overall, mostly favorable conditions continue in many areas, though there is a mixture of wetter and drier areas throughout the region.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): A front pushed through the region on Tuesday, though the tail end of it may bring isolated showers into the region for the next several days. We will also have to watch the potential for a tropical storm to develop in the Gulf later this weekend; a feature not captured well by models. Another front is likely to slide into the region early next week with more rainfall. Many areas are still wet and in need of some drier weather, but that has been hard to come by. That could continue to have a negative effect on crop conditions.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (WHEAT/CANOLA): Several more systems and disturbances are forecast to move through the region through next week, but will only bring through scattered areas of showers and thunderstorms, causing many areas to be missed. If that is for those across the south and east, that could be a larger concern for developing to reproductive wheat and canola.

BRAZIL (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): Some areas in southern Brazil have had a lot of rain over the last few weeks with fronts somewhat stalling or moving through at a frequent pace. Those fronts have also brought through some significantly cold air as well, producing areas of frost. Corn is mostly mature with harvest increasing and frost has likely not been much of a concern for winter wheat in the south either. But specialty crops will have taken on some damage from last week. Colder temperatures this week should be south of the main specialty crop areas. Generally dry conditions are expected through next week, allowing some wet areas to recover.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Colder temperatures have been producing widespread frosts and freezes over the last week or two with more occurring this week as well. However, that has likely had little to no significant impact on the remaining corn and soybean harvests or winter wheat establishment.

Though drier conditions will continue to promote harvest, rainfall is needed for winter wheat establishment. Very little is forecast until a front moves through this weekend, but even that is forecast to have little precipitation, too. A better chance may occur next week.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Hotter and drier conditions over the last two weeks have been favorable for dry down of winter crops and harvest, but are stressing some of the drier corn areas scattered throughout the continent. A system will move through northern areas Wednesday and Thursday with some showers along its front. But a bigger system is forecast for this weekend into next week with more widespread showers, at least for northern areas. This system should also bring in more seasonable temperatures. Though the rainfall will be welcomed, much more will be needed for spring-sewn crops.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Areas of isolated showers continue this week, mostly in southwestern Russia. Systems moving through Europe are likely to produce more showers for western areas next week. With winter wheat maturing, drier conditions would be preferred for harvest, though corn and sunflower areas would enjoy more rainfall as soil moisture is still low in many areas.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Many areas remain too dry as winter wheat and canola try to build roots over the winter. A system off the East Coast produced much of its rainfall over coastal areas and not the inland wheat belt. Several systems will move through the country over the next couple of weeks. Models have been increasing the forecast rainfall, and that will be critical as wheat and canola get into their reproductive stages in the next month or two.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/CORN/SOYBEANS): The pattern stays active in central China with more areas of showers and thunderstorms throughout the week and possibly into next week. That should improve conditions for developing corn and soybeans. Overall favorable conditions are found elsewhere throughout the country.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

East: Isolated showers southeast. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated showers north Wednesday-Thursday. Isolated to scattered showers Friday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday, above normal Thursday-Saturday, near to above normal Sunday.

East: Isolated showers north Wednesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday, above normal Thursday-Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday-Friday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers north and south. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Thursday, mostly south.

Isolated to scattered showers Friday-Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal through Sunday, warmer north.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Monday-Friday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures below to well below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Sunday. Temperatures below to well below normal Wednesday, below normal Thursday-Sunday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal north and below normal south.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Sunday. Temperatures below normal south and near to above normal north through Saturday, near normal Sunday.

John Baranick can be reached at John.Baranick@dtn.com

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