Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Continued wet weather across the south, frost potential in Brazil, and patches of dryness in Europe, the Black Sea region, China, and Australia are the weather factors driving the markets Wednesday.

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE MIDWEST

A system will continue to pinwheel through the Midwest this week with areas of isolated to scattered showers through Friday and some more may drop over western areas this weekend with another disturbance. Soil moisture is certainly higher in most areas, which is good news for many that have already planted. But there are some areas, particularly across the south, that haven't had very good conditions for planting yet and it is starting to get very late. Showers this week will be more of a nuisance and are not expected to be heavy for too many areas. Cooler temperatures remain in place for most of the week, but should be rising starting on Friday and continuing into the weekend and early June. Heavier rain will be possible next week as at least a pair of systems moves through. Models disagree about the coverage of precipitation in the region, though.

MORE HEAVY RAIN IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Recent heavy rainfall was beneficial for some dry areas in the Central and Southern Plains, but also brought heavy rain to some areas that didn't necessarily need it across eastern Oklahoma and Texas. This system continues to produce showers through Thursday before the region goes on a drier trend. Systems will favor the Northern Plains next week, leaving the region with spotty showers and higher temperatures. Some stretch of drier weather can be dealt with because of the recent rain. But this may be the start of a drier trend that is forecast to increase throughout the month of June.

SHOWERS INCREASING NEXT WEEK FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Recent precipitation has been beneficial for increasing soil moisture and reducing drought throughout most of the Northern Plains. Some showers will remain possible on Wednesday, but much of the week should be drier and beneficial for additional fieldwork. Some isolated showers may develop over the weekend as well. A bigger system should move through the region Monday night and Tuesday, bringing widespread showers through the rest of the week. Temperatures will be on the rise this week, but fall behind next week's system.

SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE DELTA

Scattered showers continue in the Delta through Friday and could have potential for severe weather as well as some heavier rain. There have only been limited dry days across the region all spring, which has built in a lot of soil moisture, but also caused ponding and flooding for extended periods as well. Temperatures are mostly below normal this week, which may also lead to disease pressure in areas that cannot dry out. Temperatures should rise next week.

DRIER STRETCH FOR CANADIAN PRAIRIES, WIDESPREAD SHOWERS RETURN NEXT WEEK

Drier weather in the Canadian Prairies this week should allow for most producers to finish planting either on schedule or ahead of it after some really good rain previously. A disturbance may bring showers Thursday night and Friday, and the pattern is setting up to favor additional moderate or even heavy rain starting on Sunday. That would be highly favorable after the good planting pace.

FROST POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL

A front produced heavy rain over southern Brazil on Tuesday, with showers waning as the front gets into central Brazil on Wednesday. That will be beneficial for southern safrinha corn areas that may still be filling. Safrinha corn harvest has started, though at a slow pace. That pace will pick up in about two weeks. Colder air will move in behind the front and could produce some patchy frosts as far north as Parana over the next couple of mornings. If that occurs, that could affect safrinha corn in some areas.

NORTHERN EUROPE GETTING NEEDED RAINFALL

Scattered showers continue to move over northern Europe this week, but amounts have not and continue to not be particularly heavy for very many areas which needed it. The driest areas in France, the UK, and Germany may be the target for additional heavy rainfall next week, though. That would be preferred as many of these areas have fallen behind significantly in precipitation deficits over the last few months.

EASTERN BLACK SEA REGION IN ANOTHER DRY STRETCH

Heavy rain continued to fall over western areas of the Black Sea region over the long holiday weekend. The system responsible will be slow to move this week. It may spread showers farther east through Ukraine, but will be very spotty going through western Russia later this week and weekend. Though showers have been more frequent, long-term rainfall deficits continue to be very large for much of the region, making for a lot of concern if and when conditions turn hotter and drier.

LIMITED RAINFALL FOR AUSTRALIA

Though some showers moved through over the last week, dryness and drought continue to develop over some important areas of the Australia's wheat belt. A couple of systems will bring showers to the country for the end of the month and early June, but rainfall is largely below normal for this time of year, unfavorable for winter wheat and canola establishment.

CENTRAL CHINA STAYING MOSTLY DRY

Central and northeast China continue to be very dry, unfavorable for crop development. Very little rainfall is forecast over the next two weeks, which will favor northeastern areas a bit more, which are in much better shape in terms of soil moisture. Filling wheat on the North China Plain have had harsher conditions to end their season and could see additional stress before harvest begins in mid-June.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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