Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Dryness returning to the southwestern Plains, wet and stormy weather through the Corn Belt, and patches of dryness in Europe, China, and Australia are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

STORMS ROLLING THROUGH THE MIDWEST FRIDAY

A system moving through the Midwest brought widespread showers and thunderstorms across the north on Thursday. It should produce another round of strong to severe thunderstorms for the Ohio Valley on Friday into Saturday. Another system will roll through early-mid next week with more widespread rainfall potential. Temperatures are falling across the region and will be on the cool side for much of the remainder of the month.

ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS NEXT WEEK

A larger system moving across the Northern Plains brought some heavy thunderstorms to parts of Nebraska over the last couple of days, which was sorely needed, but did not cover the whole state. A better system should move through Sunday through Tuesday with a much better chance at more widespread showers across the region, which would include Nebraska again. Southwestern areas have not minded a break in the rainfall but could start to dry out if next week's system misses as forecast.

HEAVY RAIN, STRONG WINDS, AND COOLER FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

A large system brought heavy rainfall over the last couple of days, with showers waning on Friday across the Dakotas. Strong winds have developed across the region as well. The heavy rain was certainly needed after the recent hot and dry conditions had sapped soil moisture but allowed fantastic planting conditions. However, colder temperatures moving into the region will continue through next week and may cause some patchy frost in some areas. There will be more rain that follows this weekend and next week as well.

DELTA CONTINUES TO BE WET

A front will settle into the Delta on Friday that should bring showers through the weekend as well as some severe weather. Breaks have not been very long between showers, which has left the region very wet and is likely causing some issues, including flooding on the Lower Mississippi River that has been very slow to fall. Several disturbances moving through next week could bring additional showers, but an overall drying trend is expected next week.

HEAVY RAIN FOR EASTERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES

A system is wrapping up in the Northern Plains, which has brought some heavy rain to the eastern Canadian Prairies over the last couple of days. That ends on Friday. Temperatures are trending colder, and frosts may return by the weekend in some areas. The weather pattern looks to stay active next week with multiple chances for scattered showers as well. Western Saskatchewan has been missing out on a lot of the precipitation and could use some more. It will have better chances next week. The recent and forecast rain could slow down the planting progress, which is already ahead of schedule, but is helpful to build some moisture in for the newly planted crops.

FRONT MOVING INTO SOUTHERN BRAZIL NEXT WEEK

With the wet season over, Brazil relies on fronts coming up from Argentina to supply southern areas with some rainfall, which would be favorable for winter wheat planting and establishment. Corn will largely draw upon built up soil moisture from the wet season to fill kernels. A front will move into southern areas early next week with some showers.

NORTHERN EUROPE TOO DRY

A low in the Atlantic continued showers across Spain on Thursday and has been beneficial for western areas this week. A system is dropping showers through eastern areas and continues them into next week. Another low or two could move through southern portions of the continent next week with scattered showers. Much of northwestern Europe is now being left between systems and fronts and is trending drier and could use some rain. Chances may increase for needed rain toward the end of the month.

MORE RAIN FOR BLACK SEA REGION

Bands of showers continue to move through the Black Sea region as the weather pattern tries to reverse the drought in the region. It is a slow process, however. Though some areas have been a little left out, the pattern has been much more favorable for getting some needed precipitation into dry areas. It is also coming with colder air, which may produce patchy frost in some areas across the north and west and slow growth. This pattern should last through next week as well.

LITTLE RAINFALL FOR AUSTRALIA

Despite some streaky showers in eastern Australia through Friday, the forecast continues to call for below-normal rainfall for most of the wheat belt, which will continue to be stressful for wheat and canola establishment.

LIMITED RAINFALL OPPORTUNITIES IN CHINA

Despite some recent rain, drier conditions in central portions of China are stressing wheat and canola that are in reproductive to filling stages. It may also stress some corn and soybean areas that have just been planted as well. A couple of fronts will come through over the next two weeks, but with limited precipitation. Northern areas, largely corn and soybean areas, are in better shape. But they will be on a much cooler streak into next week. Frosts are generally not forecast but could be possible in some locations.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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