Ag Weather Forum

Yet another big March storm system is forecast to move through the country this weekend. This will be the fourth large storm this month. Like its predecessors, this storm will bring bouts of heavy rain and snow as well as severe weather. But while winds will be strong in some areas, this system is not forecast to come with the incredibly strong winds that have recently brought dust storms and damage to the Plains.

The setup to this system is a lot like the previous ones, but with some differences. An upper-level ridge is moving through and increasing temperatures east of the Rockies this week. Some summer-like heat with temperatures in the 70s and 80s Fahrenheit will make it as far north as southeastern South Dakota, southern Minnesota and southern Wisconsin this Friday.

Meanwhile, temperatures in the 30s F will lurk north of the border into Canada. The vast difference in temperatures will help to fuel a larger storm system that will move through in a couple of pieces.

The first portion of the storm will move across the northern border region Thursday night and Friday. Snow is expected in Canada, while showers and some thunderstorms are expected to form along the edge of the warm air in the Midwest. Some of these thunderstorms could be stronger, but severe weather is generally not expected at this time.

The second piece to the system will move into the Central Plains on Saturday. Partly due to the system ahead of it, this one will have better access to moisture being drawn up from the Gulf. Heavy thunderstorms are expected across the Lower Mississippi River Valley and a band of rain and snow will form on the northern edge of the low-pressure track as it moves from the Central Plains through the Great Lakes.

A third piece of energy may extend some precipitation back across the Plains on March 30 and finally push the cold front to the system through the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley. The system continues through the Northeast for March 31 with the front dragging across the Gulf and East Coasts with more showers and thunderstorms.

With essentially three storm systems moving through in a series of four days, the exact impacts to the system are a bit tricky to forecast and there is plenty of uncertainty. Timing, locations, and amounts of rain and snow are tough to pin down and your local forecast may change significantly over the coming days.

However, the general idea is that we should see a band of snow develop from about Nebraska through Wisconsin, an area that has seen a band of snow developing with each of the previous systems. That could be heavy and result in more than 6 inches in some spots. Models are not in agreement on where this may set up, though, with the second piece of energy moving through on Saturday.

There will probably be another burst of snow moving through on Sunday, but this is most likely to be across Wyoming, Nebraska and into Iowa. The uncertainty with the Saturday piece leads to greater uncertainty with the Sunday piece, however, and we could see snow extending farther east across the Midwest as well. Heavy rain should be focused on a band that moves generally west to east from the Central Plains through the Midwest, and down south through the Gulf Coast states. Rainfall amounts over an inch are expected in many areas, which could lead to some flooding.

The cold front moving across the South should lead to some severe weather. The bursts of smaller pieces of energy may make this severe weather event less potent than the previous storms, but we are still going to see some significant thunderstorm clusters and lines moving across the southeastern quadrant of the country. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is already targeting the Lower Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys for Sunday, and the Gulf Coast and Southeast on Monday. When the SPC puts outlooks out this far in advance, they are fairly certain that severe weather will be in play.

The one ingredient missing will be extremely strong winds. No doubt, breezy winds will occur in some areas, and the Central and Southern Plains into the southwestern Midwest look like good areas to see breezy conditions on Friday, but gusts look to be more manageable in the 35-45 mph range and the gusts behind the cold front are currently forecast to remain below 40 mph. That would mean a very low chance for any blizzard conditions, dust storms, or wind damage from this series of systems.

This group of systems will reignite an active storm track through the country going into early April. Though the details of each subsequent system are much more uncertain than this weekend, expect additional storms to roll through in the middle of next week in the Tuesday to Thursday timeframe, April 1-3, and again over the weekend, around April 5-7. These two could also be strong spring systems with multiple impacts, including more heavy rain and snow as well as severe weather and strong winds.

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John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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