DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge across the Eastern U.S. with a trough in the West and moving into the Plains. This trough will move eastward in a couple of pieces through the weekend, creating a big storm system. A ridge will develop right behind it and build across the U.S. for early next week, but another trough will swing through the country mid-late next week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Another trough will follow for late next week with yet another for the weekend as the pattern stays progressive and troughs and ridges flow through North America rather easily.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend but favor the European.

Another big system is forecast to move through the country during the middle of next week and should produce widespread showers and a band of heavy snow. A couple of smaller systems will follow it for late next week and weekend.

Temperatures will fall briefly behind the midweek system, but only for a day or so before popping right back up above normal again. Though temperatures will bounce around because of the systems moving through, the general trend is for mild or warm temperatures to close out March.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...100 AT FAITH RANCH, TX

LOW THU...14 BELOW ZERO AT ESTCOURT STATION, ME

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CST THURSDAY...FRESNO, CA 1.61 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

There is a ridge across the Eastern U.S. with a trough in the West and moving into the Plains. This trough will move eastward in a couple of pieces through the weekend, creating a big storm system. A ridge will develop right behind it and build across the U.S. for early next week, but another trough will swing through the country mid-late next week. Another trough will follow behind it for late next week with yet another for the weekend as the pattern stays progressive and troughs and ridges flow through North America rather easily.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend but favor the European.

Another big system is forecast to move through the country during the middle of next week and should produce widespread showers and a band of heavy snow. A couple of smaller systems will follow it for late next week and weekend.

Temperatures will fall briefly behind the midweek system, but only for a day or so before popping right back up above normal again. Though temperatures will bounce around because of the systems moving through, the general trend is for mild or warm temperatures to close out March.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): A system that moves through on Friday and Saturday will bring scattered showers to the far eastern Dakotas, including heavy snow and blizzard conditions. With the drought continuing to be an issue heading into spring with no snowpack, this storm would be helpful for building up some soil moisture, but only limited areas are going to see that. Much more is needed. A couple of rounds of showers are forecast for next week, but with limited impact. Southeastern areas will get a shot at heavier precipitation from another big storm in the middle of next week.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): Drought still covers a large portion of the region and some areas are getting worse. A massive storm system is moving into the region on Friday and is likely to produce precipitation.

However, areas to the north and east are more likely to receive substantial amounts while this region will see strong winds and wind damage from the storm instead. An overall lack of precipitation, above-normal temperatures, and strong winds will lead to lowering soil moisture for greening winter wheat and forages. There is a better chance for precipitation in needed areas in the middle of next week, though it is unlikely to hit all areas.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): Drought continues to have a grip on much of the region. But a massive storm system will move through Friday and Saturday, producing widespread showers and thunderstorms, some severe weather, northwestern snow, and strong winds that could create blizzard conditions where the snow falls. Additional systems are expected to move through behind it next week, which will probably include a band of heavy snow during the middle of next week. The forecast precipitation may help with the drought situation in some areas.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Water levels continue to fall along the Mississippi and most of the tributaries and some areas are drying out enough for early planting. A massive storm system moving through the country is likely to produce lines and clusters of thunderstorms for Friday and Saturday, which may be severe. Another system in the middle of next week could also add water to the region. If areas get enough rain, it could slow down early planting intentions.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): A front stalled across the south-central will only drift slightly northward over the next couple days. Scattered showers that are occurring are much-needed, but east-central Brazil is not forecast to see much rainfall for the next week and safrinha corn is suffering in hot and dry conditions there. The southern state of Rio Grande do Sul, which is a big producer of full-season corn and soybeans, is filling its crops with poor conditions. West-central states continue to see scattered wet-season showers and overall fair conditions.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Overall dry conditions are expected for the next week, though a few spots will see showers across the south. Temperatures are milder the next couple of days, but could be stressful next week for areas that have been drier, particularly across the north. Southern and central areas can handle some drier conditions after the recent heavy rainfall. Much of the crop is either filling or maturing and weather is starting to become less of a factor for production as even recent heavy rains have not been able to improve crop conditions.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): A series of systems continues to move across the southern end of the continent through this weekend, producing scattered showers. Recent warm temperatures have allowed more of the wheat crop to break dormancy, doing so in fairly good condition in most areas. Temperatures rise again next week in overall drier conditions. We will see storms moving back into western areas by late next week, which should hit northwestern areas with some rain that might actually be favorable after a drier stretch of weather recently. Spain should continue to see beneficial rainfall as well.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): An active pattern over Europe is only producing streaks of precipitation across Ukraine and southwestern Russia going into next week and some areas are being unfavorably missed. Very warm temperatures this week have allowed more of the crop to break from dormancy, but in poor condition without much soil moisture. Temperatures rise again later next week but with very little moisture to work with through the end of March.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON/SORGHUM): Eastern areas have been recovering this week from Tropical Cyclone Alfred and its flooding rain around Brisbane. Cotton and sorghum areas farther inland saw scattered showers and areas of heavy rainfall earlier this week, and could have seen enough rain to drop quality and push back harvest. Drier conditions going into next week should be more favorable for recovery, maturing crops, and harvest.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures well above normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures well above normal.

Forecast:

West: Scattered showers Friday-Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Monday. Isolated showers Tuesday. Temperatures well above normal through Saturday, near to below normal Sunday, above to well above normal Monday-Tuesday.

East: Scattered showers and thunderstorms Friday night-Sunday. Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday. Temperatures well above normal through Saturday, near to above normal Sunday-Monday, above to well above normal Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Scattered showers Wednesday-Sunday. Temperatures above to well above normal Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday-Friday, near to above normal Saturday-Sunday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures well above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Monday.

Scattered showers Tuesday night. Temperatures above to well above normal Friday, near to below normal Saturday, near to above normal Sunday, above to well above normal Monday-Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Scattered showers Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday.

Isolated showers Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures falling Wednesday, below normal Thursday, near to above normal Friday, above normal Saturday-Sunday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers north. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers north through Tuesday. Temperatures near to below normal through Saturday, near to above normal Sunday-Tuesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal through Tuesday.

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