Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Rising temperatures in the U.S., increasing showers in central Brazil and heavy rain forecast for southern Argentina are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

TEMPERATURES RISING IN THE MIDWEST

Cold air is moving out of the Midwest and temperatures will rise this weekend. Above-normal readings are forecast for next week in most areas. Clippers moving through Canada may bring some occasional precipitation and a storm system in the middle of next week might bring some widespread rain with potential for snow. Colder air will filter in behind that system for late next week, and behind a clipper that goes through next weekend.

INCREASING TEMPERATURES IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Dangerously cold air in the Central and Southern Plains this week has threatened livestock and winter wheat with winterkill. Snow that fell earlier this week may have helped to protect some of the crop, but many areas are uncovered and vulnerable. Temperatures are rising into this weekend and warmer air is forecast for next week, melting the snow. The next system moves through toward the middle of next week, though much of the region is likely to be missed.

GETTING WARM IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Temperatures continue to rise quickly across the Northern Plains and will be above normal over the weekend, flipping dramatically from earlier this week. Clippers moving through Canada may produce some limited showers into next week, but not a lot of help is expected for the drought, which continues to be a major concern heading into the growing season. March and April weather will be relied upon for producing better precipitation in the region.

WATER LEVELS REMAIN HIGH ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER

Barge traffic may be slower with the recent heavy precipitation that has led to higher water levels and flooding along the Mississippi and its tributaries. The pattern is a little slower for the region through early next week, allowing areas to recover some, though another system will move through in the middle of next week with more rain.

RAIN CLOSING GOOD FIELDWORK WINDOW FOR CENTRAL BRAZIL NEXT WEEK

Wet season showers in central Brazil have been very isolated this week and have allowed for fieldwork to continue. Any safrinha corn planted after today is now considered late and progress reports out of Mato Grosso will be watched closely Friday afternoon. The states of Parana, Mato Grosso do Sul and Sao Paulo had some precipitation this week, however, limiting progress there. Wet season showers fill back in over central Brazil this weekend and continue next week, unfavorable for fieldwork, but favoring the newly planted corn crop.

HEAVY RAIN FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN ARGENTINA NEXT WEEK

Drier weather and hot temperatures in Argentina this week led to more stress for those areas with limited soil moisture. A front moves back into southern states on Sunday with needed rain there for several days, which will be helpful. The front is forecast to move north late next week and weekend, wiping out the heat.

PRECIPITATION SPREADING THROUGH EUROPE NEXT WEEK

Drier conditions have been noted across most of Europe this week, though western areas will see a front move through Friday and Saturday with needed rain across Spain and unneeded rain for the UK and France. Eastern areas could use more precipitation before the crop awakens from dormancy. The pattern gets a little more active for more of the continent next week. Colder air in eastern sections of the continent this week have not been a large concern for winterkill for winter wheat, though some areas may be affected. Temperatures will rise going into next week.

COLD AIR IN THE BLACK SEA THREATENS WINTER WHEAT

Wheat went dormant in good condition in the western Black Sea region, but poor condition in the east, particularly in southwestern Russia. Some light precipitation has been moving through over the winter, but much more is needed to relieve drought. Bursts of light snow into next week won't cut it. Cold air that has moved in could be a concern for some areas that are uncovered by snow, especially around the Caucuses. Temperatures will rise later next week.

DRIER IN AUSTRALIA

Only limited showers are forecast in Australia through next week with systems generally missing most of the country to the south. Immature cotton and sorghum areas that are a little too dry could be stressed with temperatures generally increasing into next week.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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