Ag Weather Forum

Wheat Market Sees Lower Russia Supplies Due to Last Year's Drought

Bryce Anderson
By  Bryce Anderson , Ag Meteorologist Emeritus
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The satellite-derived Evaporative Stress Index (ESI) for Southern Russia during June 4-Aug. 26, 2024, showed severe crop stress due to excessive heat and limited soil moisture reserves. (USDA graphic by NASA/USGS)

Early 2025 brings further details of damage to Russia's grain crops from heat and drought during the summer of 2024. A report from the Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT) issued this week, and cited in the Moscow Times, noted, "Production of key field crops declined to approximately 125 million [metric] tons (mmt), down 14% from an all-time record harvest of 153-155 mmt of grain in 2023. Wheat output fell to 82 mmt, a 16% decrease, while other crops, including maize, barley and sugar beets, recorded drops of around 20%. Potato production was down by 10%."

Drought began in the spring of 2024 in Russia's primary wheat areas and continued through the summer. Dryness stress was compounded by excessive heat. USDA's Weekly World Weather and Crop Bulletin of July 23, 2024, highlighted the out-of-bounds heat in European Russia, which has some of the country's most productive farmland.

"As of July 20...Rostov, 17 days with highs greater than 35 degrees Celsius (95 deg Fahrenheit) since July 1, with a peak temperature of 41.0 deg C (105.8 deg F) during the past week; Krasnodar, 18 days over 35 deg C (95 deg F), weekly maximum value of 39.4 deg C (102.9 deg F); and Stavropol, 15 days over 35 deg C (95 deg F) in July, with a peak value of 40.2 deg C (104.4 deg F).

"Monthly average temperatures as of July 21 were the highest of the past 30 years -- by far -- over most of the Black Sea Region," the report said.

The heat and drought impact added to damage from a harsh spring freeze across southern and central Russia. Low temperatures during the week of May 5-11 dropped to or below -2.0 deg C (28.4 deg F) and were colder than -4 deg C (24.8 deg F) in many locations. The freeze stunted developing wheat and made it even more vulnerable to the impact of hot, dry conditions later on.

And with the drop in production comes a corresponding drop in grain that Russia has available for export. The Bank of Finland report observes that Russia's wheat offering to the world market is down more than 60% from a year ago. "The (Russia) wheat export quota for spring 2025 is set at less than 11 mmt, a sharp reduction from 29 mmt in 2024...," the report said.

The reduced 2024 Russia wheat crop places more importance on how the dormant 2025 crop will fare during the rest of this growing cycle. Limited snow cover leaves the crop vulnerable to possible damage in the event of a strong cold wave. The question, of course, is whether this still-dormant wheat crop can even meet its early estimates of no more than 80 mmt, about the same as the actual harvest from this past year.

A look at the Russia drought during its developing stages last summer is available here from DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick: https://www.dtnpf.com/…

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

Bryce Anderson

Bryce Anderson
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