Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Relatively quiet weather is expected in the United States Thursday, but models are still hinting at the potential for widespread showers in Argentina and southern Brazil this weekend. These are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

BRIEF WARM UP FOR THE MIDWEST THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE THE COLD RETURNS

Temperatures rise on Thursday and Friday, especially across the northwest. But a system moving through this weekend should bring through a burst of showers as a mix of rain and snow and will be followed by a burst of extremely cold air through most of next week. The cold will keep lake-effect snow going for several days as well. A slight warming trend may not return until the end of next week.

ARCTIC AIR BRINGS A RISK FOR WINTER KILL IN THE SOUTHWEST PLAINS NEXT WEEK

A front and system will move through Friday and Saturday, bringing limited showers, but also another burst of very cold air. Exposed wheat areas may see some winter kill from this burst of cold that should last well into next week. A system may form early next week in the cold air, bringing potential widespread wintry prospects across the south.

LIGHT SHOWERS AND PLUMMETING TEMPERATURES FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS

A front moves through on Friday, bringing scattered light snow and a burst of very cold air for a few days. While some moderation will be possible for the second half of next week, more cold air is likely to flow in next weekend. Another clipper system from Canada will dip south during the middle of next week, but snowfall could be light.

UPPER MISSISSIPPI IN NEED OF MORE PRECIPITATION

Water levels remain above the low-water mark in most of the Mississippi and Ohio River systems, making for mostly easy transportation. Northern areas of the Mississippi Basin are getting drier though, and could use some precipitation to keep water levels up. A system moving through this weekend could help somewhat, though the forecast is drier for most of the region through next week. Any above-average precipitation next week will favor far southern areas with potential wintry precipitation moving through early in the week.

HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL THIS WEEKEND

Widespread wet season showers continue in central and northern Brazil, favorable for filling soybeans, but hampering the very early harvest. The main harvest period does not start for another week, so the rain is overall favorable, but becoming less so. If rainfall continues to be heavy for the end of January and into February, it may have more of an impact on harvesting soybeans and planting safrinha corn. Showers across the south have been much less frequent, which has been a problem for filling soybeans in Mato Grosso do Sul and Parana and pollinating to filling corn in Rio Grande do Sul. A front moving through this weekend is looking to bring more widespread precipitation, but could be followed by another period of dryness.

SHOWER COVERAGE UNCERTAIN ACROSS ARGENTINA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS

Soil moisture is falling in many areas of Argentina with very little showers and temperatures well above normal in the 90s and 100s, leading to declining crop conditions. We should see a burst of showers moving through over the next few days, but any heavy amounts may be limited. Models disagree on the amount of precipitation that is expected to fall, but dry conditions are expected to follow well into next week, especially across critical central production areas.

WARM BUT DRY NEAR THE BLACK SEA

Wheat went dormant in good condition in the west, but poor condition in the east, particularly in southwestern Russia. Scattered showers have been more prevalent since crops went dormant, but not enough to provide adequate snow cover or boost soil moisture in a significant way just yet. Systems will continue to provide periodic, but mostly light showers through the end of January. Amounts do not look heavy though, and a lot of rain and snow are needed before wheat breaks dormancy this spring. There are no risks of significant cold for the next couple of weeks that would be a large concern for winter kill on exposed wheat.

WESTERN AUSTRALIA DRIER AND WARMER AFTER SHOWERS PASS THURSDAY

Scattered showers have been going through eastern areas recently, offering some help for developing cotton and sorghum. Dry areas in the west and south are not getting as lucky with only limited showers and declining soil moisture in these areas. Well above-average temperatures are also not favorable for the dry western areas as any relief in these temperatures is unlikely next week.

Teresa Wells can be reached at teresa.wells@dtn.com

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