DTN Ag Weather Brief
DTN Ag Weather Brief
There is a trough in the Central and East, and a ridge in Alaska that will be shifting into the West this weekend and strengthening.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:The two features will battle for the middle of the country next week, but the pattern will not change much. The ridge will remain stout in the West while the trough sees clippers providing reinforcements in the East.
The U.S. and European models are similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.
The ridge will push the colder air to the East in the middle of next week, bringing warmth back to the Central. But a clipper moving through the Great Lakes will likely push some colder air back through the Central late next week.
That may be short-lived with warmth spreading through the Central next weekend but we could see another system bring colder air early next week as well.
NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:HIGH THU...87 AT FLORIDA CITY, FL AND OCHOPEE, FL
LOW THU...28 BELOW ZERO AT PETER SINKS, UT
24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT THURSDAY...PORTLAND, ME 1.21 INCHES
US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:There is a trough in the Central and East and a ridge in Alaska that will be shifting into the West this weekend and strengthening. The two features will battle for the middle of the country next week, but the pattern will not change much. The ridge will remain stout while the trough sees clippers providing reinforcements.
The U.S. and European models are similar. I will use a blend but favor the European.
The ridge will push the colder air to the East in the middle of next week, bringing warmth back to the Central. But a clipper moving through the Great Lakes will likely push some colder air back through the Central late next week.
That may be short-lived with warmth spreading through the Central next weekend but we could see another system bring colder air early next week as well.
MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): A couple of small clippers will bring down colder air and some light snow from the Canadian Prairies through the weekend. Temperatures remain very cold but will moderate on Tuesday. Additional clippers coming down from Canada may bring some showers through the region, but also waffle temperatures around quite a bit in both directions.
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): Colder air will stick around through the weekend, but temperatures will rise next week. Clippers moving through to the north will not bring much precipitation to the region, but could result in wild swings in temperatures. The best chance for any rain will be in Texas with showers coming off of the Gulf of Mexico at the tail end of fronts.
MIDWEST (WINTER WHEAT): Cold air has spread through the region and will continue the lake-effect snow machine through probably Tuesday. A couple of weak clippers may bring some streaks of light snow into the region over the weekend. A larger clipper is likely to produce more widespread snow in the middle of next week. Temperatures may briefly rise ahead of it, but will fall well below normal again behind it. Several clippers moving through later next week into the following week could continue the potential for showers and large swings in temperatures.
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (TRANSPORTATION): Water levels on the Mississippi River are still above the low mark due to recent heavy rain across the Plains and Midwest, but are still falling. A slight bump from the midweek storm is not forecast to make much difference. With the forecast turning much drier into mid-December, the slow fall of water levels is likely to continue.
BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): Showers returned to being scattered in central Brazil after being isolated for most of the last week. Southern areas got heavier rain from a front that moved up from Argentina the last two days. Another front will move through southern areas Sunday and Monday, stalling over central Brazil with even more rainfall. With fronts continuing to move up from Argentina at a fairly regular pace, it is hard to find poor growing conditions for corn and soybeans.
ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front brought heavier rain to northern areas earlier this week and isolated showers have continued behind it.
Another front will move through on Sunday with widespread rain in the forecast.
Southern areas have been a bit drier than elsewhere and would be the spot to watch if this front disappoints. Otherwise, overall good growing conditions continue for corn and soybeans. The threat of heat and dryness due to the building La Nina may be a threat later in the season as well.
EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): A system moved through central and eastern Europe over the last couple of days and continues to produce showers for needed areas in the southeast into the weekend. Several fronts and systems are forecast to move through next week with widespread precipitation, particularly in France and the UK, where soils are still fairly wet and do not need to see any more rain for a while. Wheat continues to go dormant from north to south in mostly good condition, though some wet spots are not all that favorable.
BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Precipitation had picked up in the east recently, helping to build some soil moisture as wheat continues to go dormant in mostly poor condition there. The region will hope for good precipitation over the winter to get a good start when the crop comes out of dormancy in the spring.
AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/COTTON/SORGHUM): A system continues to produce areas of heavy rain in the east into the weekend. Another system will move through eastern areas early next week with more rain and we could see another system late next week there as well. The rain is unfavorable for fieldwork and winter wheat and canola harvest, but good for cotton and sorghum planting and establishment. Soil moisture is improving in many areas, though the pattern looks a little drier next week for western areas.
EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)
Summary:
West: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to below normal.
East: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.
Forecast:
West: Mostly dry Friday. Isolated snow Saturday-Sunday. Mostly dry Monday.
Isolated showers Tuesday. Temperatures below to well below normal through Tuesday.
East: Lake-effect snow through Tuesday. Scattered showers Tuesday night.
Temperatures below to well below normal through Tuesday.
6- to 10-day outlook: Scattered showers Wednesday. Lake-effect snow Thursday-Friday. Isolated showers Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures above normal west and below normal east Wednesday, below normal Thursday-Saturday, near to below normal Sunday.
Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)
Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to below normal.
Forecast: Mostly dry Friday. Isolated showers northeast Saturday-Sunday. Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday. Temperatures near to below normal through Monday, near to above normal Tuesday.
6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Wednesday-Sunday. Temperatures above normal Wednesday-Thursday, variable Friday-Sunday.
Brazil Soybeans and Corn...
Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...
Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.
Forecast: Isolated showers through Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday, north Monday-Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday, near to below normal Monday-Tuesday.
Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...
Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.
Forecast: Scattered showers through Tuesday. Temperatures near normal through Tuesday.
John Baranick can be reached at John.Baranick@dtn.com
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