Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Massive drought reduction in the southeastern Corn Belt and Southeast, but a dry forecast going forward. The prospect of a big storm rolling through Argentina and central Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

DRIER FOR THE MIDWEST

Last week's heavy rain from the remnants of Helene has helped ease the drought situation in the south, increase water levels for the Mississippi River system, and moisten soils for winter wheat planting, but may have caused damage due to flooding and winds. At least two fronts will be moving through over the next several days, but they are not forecast to produce much in the way of precipitation, favorable for drying out soils for fieldwork but causing drought to increase. Though fronts will be moving through, they do not have access to much cool air, and temperatures should remain rather warm on most days, getting pushed back toward normal after a front goes through, but then rising above normal a day or two later.

CONTINUED DRYNESS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Warm to hot temperatures and dry conditions continue in the Central and Southern Plains through next week, favorable for harvest, but not for winter wheat establishment or the increasing drought. The next chance for rain would be next weekend at the earliest, but even that looks scarce.

DRY IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Fronts keep moving through the Northern Plains but are not bringing any precipitation. Winds have been elevated though, increasing the risk of wildfires and a few have developed. Temperatures continue to be above normal despite the fronts moving through. One front moves through Saturday with strong winds and another late next week or weekend.

DELTA DRY AGAIN

In the Delta, last week's heavy rain from Helene brought reductions of drought and increased water levels on the Mississippi River, but also caused some flooding and potential quality reductions to mature crops. Dry conditions are forecast through next week, which should be helpful for harvest, but not for any winter crop establishment or water levels on the Mississippi River.

SOUTHEAST CONTINUES TO DRY OUT AFTER HELENE

The heavy rain from Hurricane Helene late last week has significantly reduced drought in the Southeast, though it caused a host of flood damage for Georgia through the Carolinas. Some showers may move through on Friday with a front passing through, but most areas will stay dry through next week. We will be watching a potential tropical system moving into the Gulf of Mexico, but the current forecast is to keep its heavy rain and other impacts over Florida.

CENTRAL BRAZIL HOPING FOR SYSTEM NEXT WEEK

Wet season showers continue in central Brazil, but they are spotty into next week. The late start of significant rain is causing a slow start to soybean planting, which will have a more significant impact for the coming safrinha corn and cotton crops that will be planted in early 2025. Southern Brazil has had more opportunities to pick up good rainfall over recent weeks, which continued this week. Another front is forecast for next week which may be more promising for rainfall in central Brazil later next week. That could be the kicker the region needs to start widespread planting.

SYSTEM WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR ARGENTINA

A front moved through Argentina with limited showers this week, but most areas have stayed dry, continuing the trend of dry conditions that has significantly delayed corn planting for western areas and caused some to abandon their winter wheat due to poor conditions and limited or no rainfall. Far southern and eastern areas have fared better. A more promising system will move in on Sunday with showers for northern areas, but could produce more widespread rain early next week. Models have been backing off on heavier rain for western areas that are in the deepest drought, but this system would not reverse the outstanding drought anyway. More rain is going to be needed soon to stave off the significant late plantings and increase soil moisture for the limited crop that has already been planted. Soybean planting starts in November and delays to that crop could come there if rain doesn't come this month either.

SYSTEMS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH EUROPE

A system dipped down into the Mediterranean on Wednesday and is producing better rainfall from Italy into southeastern Europe for the next few days. More systems are lining to move through the continent for next week as well. Soil moisture is overall pretty high, though some areas have dealt with wetness and flooding that have caused issues for winter wheat planting and corn harvesting.

UNRELENTING DROUGHT IN THE BLACK SEA REGION

Western areas of the Black Sea region have seen precipitation over the last couple of weeks, but Eastern Ukraine and western Russia have been very dry for months and the systems moving through Europe are not bringing the needed rainfall there for winter wheat planting. This continues to be the case for later this week and weekend with showers moving into western areas only to dry out before getting eastward. Though temperatures have been and continue to be quite warm, the risk of frost will increase throughout October, giving a very limited window for getting rainfall into the region for winter wheat to grow roots before the stronger freezes move in.

NEEDED RAIN MOVING THROUGH AUSTRALIA, BUT TURNING DRIER AGAIN

A system is moving through Australia this week, which has produced good rainfall for western areas. Showers may not be all that widespread across the east late this week, though, and some dryness concerns still exist. Drier conditions are forecast for next week.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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