Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A broad cold front will continue to work across the Plains and western Midwest today before shifting east by Friday. Scattered showers and a few marginally severe storms will accompany the front. Cooler temperatures will also develop behind the front. A system will move through Argentina and southern Brazil late this week into this weekend along with another shot of cooler air. However, limited showers return next week. These are the weather factors driving the markets for Thursday.

WESTERN MIDWEST HAS A RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY

Thunderstorms earlier this week developed over a wider area than maybe was forecast, which was good news for some in the north and west. Drier conditions continued in the drier sections of the south and east, though. Another front pushes through the Midwest Thursday into Saturday. That will bring more sweeping cooler temperatures through the region along with needed showers. Cooler and drier conditions will follow it through most of next week.

COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE THIS WEEK

Isolated showers continue to move through the region, but the heat is taking its toll on many areas that have been drier lately. A stronger front will come sweeping through the region Thursday and Friday with scattered showers, settling down into the south for the weekend where showers may continue. Temperatures behind the front will be much more comfortable for livestock and filling crops. Those across the north that do not see rainfall from the front could be drier through next week and that may take the top off of some yields without much rain in the forecast until maybe late next week with another front moving through. Soil moisture improvements would be preferred before winter wheat planting starts next month.

DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS IN STORE FOR NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND

Recent showers and severe storms may have caused quality problems and delays for the wheat harvest. A front continues to push through on Thursday with scattered showers, but it should be drier behind it through much of next week before another front moves through late week. Temperatures will go on a sort of roller coaster ride over the next couple of weeks.

COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH DELTA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY

Warm and dry conditions have been an unfavorable combination for filling cotton and soybeans. Some isolated showers may develop ahead of a cold front that will go through the region Friday and Saturday. The front will get stuck across the south this weekend, where it may produce showers into next week. Models are mixed on that prospect. Milder temperatures follow behind the front, though they will still be warm and stressful for filling crops where showers do not occur.

STRONG FRONT WILL EXIT CANADIAN PRAIRIES TODAY

A strong front and system will move across the region through Thursday with scattered showers and potential strong winds that could be damaging to mature wheat, canola, and other crops waiting to be harvested. Conditions trend drier for the weekend into early next week while temperatures will be on the rise again. Another front will move through in the middle of next week with potential showers and some elevated winds as well.

SOUTHERN BRAZIL COULD SEE RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND BUT DRY ELSEWHERE

Extremely dry conditions exist in northern and central areas, and they would enjoy some rain before the wet season rains come in about a month. Southern areas also saw very cold temperatures move into the region recently, creating some areas of frost that could have been damaging to wheat. Warmer temperatures will arrive for the rest of the week. Another front will come through Friday through the weekend. It may not bring much precipitation, but it could drop temperatures again. However, it should not be cold enough to produce widespread frosts this time around.

FROST RISK REDUCED IN ARGENTINA BUT RAIN IS ON THE WAY

Recent widespread frosts and freezes may have been damaging to wheat, or at least slowed down its development. Another burst of cool air will move through at the end of the week behind another front. The front is forecast to produce some rain into the weekend. Fronts have been frequent, but rain has not. The country remains very dry and could use some rain ahead of spring corn planting, which will start up next month.

PERIODIC SHOWERS BUT WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FOR EUROPE

Temperatures continue to be very warm for most areas and will rise in western areas over the next couple of days as well. Another front may move in with limited showers for western areas late this week, but it likely stays hot and dry through next week, a poor combination in most areas for filling corn in many areas. Areas near the Mediterranean may see some isolated showers and showers may continue in the west at times through next week.

BLACK SEA STILL STRUGGLING WITH DROUGHT

A small system in the Black Sea may bring a few spotty showers to southern areas for the next couple of days. Otherwise, it will be hot and dry through next week. Drought continues to expand and damage filling corn and sunflowers.

PERIODIC SHOWERS FOR SOUTHERN AUSTRALIA WITH DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS FARTHER NORTH

Recent scattered showers supported good growing conditions for winter wheat and canola. Systems moving through the Southern Ocean will continue to produce some showers across the south but will not penetrate farther north where it has been drier lately. A brief dry period will return to southern areas late this weekend into early next week with the return of high pressure. Temperatures will continue to be very warm except near the coast, which will cause quicker development of winter crops.

Teresa Wells can be reached at teresa.wells@dtn.com

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