Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A hot August forecast for the U.S. Corn Belt but a cool break next week and drier conditions for the Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies are the weather factors driving the markets Wednesday.

SEVERE STORM CHANCES CONTINUE FOR THE MIDWEST THIS WEEK

A front will slowly move across the Midwest through Friday, bringing scattered clusters of showers and thunderstorms, some of which may be severe. Despite the front, temperatures will continue to be hot. Though showers could limit the overall highs, overnight lows will continue to be mostly in the upper 60s and 70s. A cold front will drop into far northern areas this weekend with milder air and will be pushed through the region next week. Showers will occur along this front as well. Despite all the chances for showers, it will come in clusters and many areas are going to be missed. Those that are missed will see declining soil moisture and crop conditions.

TRIPLE-DIGIT HEAT IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

With a couple of fronts moving through this week, some showers have been moving through, but coverage has been quite low for the Central and Southern Plains. That is likely to continue through the weekend. Despite the fronts, temperatures should continue to be hot and stressful, with 100-degree readings reducing soil moisture and crop health. A front will get pushed through much of the region next week, bringing a burst of mild air into the region to help reduce the stress. Showers and thunderstorms will develop along the front as well.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers continue with another front moving through the Northern Plains Wednesday, though mostly in the Dakotas. Another front drops into the region over the weekend and will be pushed through early next week with some showers. Temperatures continue to be above normal for the next few days, creating stress for those who do not see much rainfall. Cooler conditions develop behind the front moving through next week, reducing the stress.

HOT AND DRY IN THE DELTA

Fronts moving through the Corn Belt are unlikely to bring showers through the Delta through this weekend. Instead, temperatures should be high and stressful. Soil moisture is currently favorable in much of the region that could help sustain crops through the heat, but it will be declining. A stronger cold front is forecast to move through the region in the middle of next week, which should bring some relief to the temperatures and potential for more widespread showers.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Despite some fronts moving through the Canadian Prairies this week, showers have been very isolated and light, a trend that continues into the weekend. Temperatures are warmer, though potential for extreme heat is low with the fronts passing through. Soil moisture continues to decline and is becoming critical for wheat and canola in their critical stages of reproduction and fill. Milder air will move in behind a cold front this weekend and another burst of mild air moves across next week. The system that pushes the front south early next week could bring a burst of better rainfall, mostly to Alberta, but again should miss some areas.

ARGENTINA MAY BE LOOKING WETTER NEXT WEEK

Dryness continues to be a concern for winter wheat in Argentina in the short term and for the coming corn and soybean crops in the long term. A front moves through Friday into the weekend but forecast rainfall will be patchy and lighter than the country needs. Another system could help out with that in the middle of next week as it is forecast to settle over the country for a few days.

BURST OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH EUROPE

Southeastern Europe continues to deal with heat and dryness concerns for small grains and cotton despite some irregular precipitation over the last few weeks. Spain and Italy have also been unfavorably dry for their summer crop prospects. A small disturbance will move through central Europe very slowly over the next few days, getting some rain into needed areas but also more rain into France and Germany that do not need it. Several more fronts are lining up to move through this weekend and next week, with the focus for showers occurring mostly in the northwest that does not need more rain.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR BLACK SEA DROUGHT

Very limited showers have moved through the Black Sea region early this week but were light if they occurred at all and coverage has been very low. A disturbance moving through Europe will bring some additional showers this weekend into early next week. Rain may occur for some lucky areas, but will not be the widespread heavy rain that the region needs. Temperatures continue to be warm and cause drought and stress.

DRIER IN NORTHEAST AUSTRALIA

Soil moisture in much of Queensland has been falling and rain is needed here, but none is in the forecast for next week. A couple of fronts have gone through western areas with scattered showers this week. One of these fronts will bring showers to far southern areas later this week but will leave much of the eastern wheat belt dry.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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