Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A front will continue to provide scattered showers and storms to the Midwest. Rain chances return to Argentina later this week with conditions drying out in southern Brazil. Drier conditions return to northwest Europe throughout the week with a few showers possible in southeast Europe. These are the weather factors driving the markets for Monday.

SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE MIDWEST THROUGH MIDWEEK

Parts of the eastern Midwest missed some of the needed rainfall from remnants of Hurricane Beryl last week and the western Midwest received damaging storms over the weekend. Widespread showers and storms are likely through the first half of this week with conditions trending drier for most by Thursday as a cold front sags south, and high pressure returns. Cooler temperatures will arrive by the middle of this week and expand across much of the region by Friday. Overall, conditions are mostly favorable for developing crops, but southeastern areas could use more rainfall and severe storms are creating swaths of crop damage.

BETTER RAIN CHANCES FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT

The Southeast Plains are still cleaning up from remnants of Hurricane Beryl. Some areas across Kansas and Oklahoma could use more moisture, which may arrive midweek. As a cold front shifts south later in the week, isolated to scattered showers and storms return to the Southern Plains and temperatures are expected to cool down behind the front. Below normal temperatures are expected for much of the Central Plains by Wednesday.

COOLER TEMPERATURES ON THE WAY FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Systems from the Northern Rockies and southern Canada moved through the Northern Plains this past weekend and provided damaging winds and large hail, leading to some swaths of crop damage. Scattered showers and storms remain possible early this week with drier conditions returning later in the week. Temperatures trended above normal this past weekend, but this week will be cooler. Conditions are fair for crops, but severe storms have not been favorable as corn starts to silk and soybeans start setting pods.

SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DELTA THIS WEEK

Remnants of Hurricane Beryl relieved some drought last week across the Delta with areas of heavy rainfall. An active pattern is likely for this week with showers favoring northern areas early in the week before showers shift south during the second half of the week. The active pattern could lead to some fields of soybeans being too wet as beans continue to set pods. Temperatures are favored to be above normal early this week with a cool down by Thursday or Friday.

SHOWERS BECOME MORE ISOLATED FOR THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Warmer conditions last week were favorable for developing wheat and canola. Scattered showers and storms over the weekend were beneficial to dry areas. Showers this week will be much more isolated with some areas likely remaining mostly dry. Temperatures are also expected to be above normal for western areas this week, which could lead to drought expanding if they missed showers this past weekend.

SOUTHERN BRAZIL DRIES OUT THIS WEEK

With areas in southern Brazil recovering from recent heavy rainfall last week, winter wheat planting and development are behind. After a few lingering showers on Monday, drier conditions will return across southern Brazil through the rest of this week and possibly into this weekend. Central Brazil has been making steady progress on safrinha corn harvest and this will likely continue this week with mild and dry conditions. Southern Brazil will likely make more progress on safrinha corn harvest this week as compared to the last few weeks.

WARMER FOR ARGENTINA WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING LATER IN THE WEEK

Frosts and mostly dry conditions were unfavorable for developing wheat last week across central and northern Argentina. More soil moisture is needed for the developing crop. Rainfall chances won't increase until late this week or this weekend with remnants of a cold front moving across northern Argentina. There is still some uncertainty in how widespread the showers will be late in the week. Temperatures will become more seasonable this week after the well below normal temperatures last week.

STILL WARM AND DRY IN SOUTHEAST EUROPE AND WETTER IN THE NORTHWEST

Northwest Europe has been dealing with wet conditions, making it difficult for wheat harvest. More showers are expected for the northwest on Monday, but conditions will trend drier through the rest of the week, which is favorable for harvest. A few showers are expected to impact southeast areas from the middle to end of the week and temperatures will remain above normal. Precipitation remains below normal in the southeast and above normal temperatures may cause drought to expand for some.

SHOWERS FAVOR WESTERN BLACK SEA BY MID-WEEK

Rainfall largely remained north of the Black Sea region last week and temperatures were well above normal, leaving more opportunities for drought to expand. Toward the middle of this week, a cold front could provide some scattered showers to western areas. Precipitation may largely miss southern and northeast areas and temperatures are expected to be above normal. Dry conditions are favorable for wheat harvest but unfavorable for maturing corn.

COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN EASTERN AUSTRALIA

Scattered showers moved through last week, benefiting maturing wheat. Cooler temperatures will linger in eastern areas through the midweek and low temperatures could approach freezing, lending to a risk for frost in parts of New South Wales. Another front will move into Western Australia by the middle of the week and provide widespread showers. The front will eventually swing through southern Australia towards the end of the week. Overall, crops and soil moisture are in fair condition, but the periodic showers will need to be maintained for maturing small grain.

Teresa Wells can be reached at teresa.wells@dtn.com

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