DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

A ridge has retreated to the West and Plains while a trough has moved into the East with another over the Canadian Prairies and another in the North Pacific. The ridge will be stuck while troughs move north of it for the next few days. The ridge will make its way back to the East this weekend while the Pacific trough moves into the Canadian Prairies. A struggle between the two is forecast and the ridge will likely win, deflecting the trough into Hudson Bay.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Another trough will challenge the ridge early next week and probably fail as well, staying north.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend.

A system will be moving through the Corn Belt over the weekend with widespread showers and thunderstorms. Another does something similar early-to-mid next week. Cooler air will drift into the northwestern Corn Belt behind both systems, but models do not have this translating south or east, instead keeping temperatures mild to hot going into July.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH SUN...121 AT DEATH VALLEY, CA AND STOVEPIPE WELLS, CA

LOW SUN...30 AT PETER SINKS, UT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT SUNDAY...ROCKFORD, IL 1.83 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

A ridge has retreated to the West and Plains while a trough has moved into the East with another over the Canadian Prairies and another in the North Pacific. The ridge will be stuck while troughs move north of it for the next few days. The ridge will make its way back to the East this weekend while the Pacific trough moves into the Canadian Prairies. A struggle between the two is forecast and the ridge will likely win, deflecting the trough into Hudson Bay.

Another trough will challenge the ridge early next week and probably fail as well, staying north.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend.

A system will be moving through the Corn Belt over the weekend with widespread showers and thunderstorms. Another does something similar early-to-mid next week. Cooler air will drift into the northwestern Corn Belt behind both systems, but models do not have this translating south or east, instead keeping temperatures mild to hot going into July.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers went through over the weekend and heavy rain was flooding southeastern South Dakota. A couple of systems will bring scattered showers through the region this week, but heavy flooding rain is not in the forecast until a system goes through early next week. Heat has developed into the region but temperatures will waffle around as systems come and go. Much colder temperatures are forecast for the weekend.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Heavy rain went through a patch of Nebraska over the weekend, but showers were spotty and most places stayed dry. Temperatures rose and will remain hot for the next few days, especially south. A front will move through with chances for thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday and another will move through Friday through the weekend with more and some cooler air, especially north. The active storm track is favoring northern and western areas with rain while southeastern areas are getting drier after flooding rains in May and early June. The heat will be stressful to crops when it exists, but those across the north are seeing better precipitation and mostly good conditions for developing corn and soybeans.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Heavy rain continued across the northwest over the weekend, causing flooding along the Minnesota-Iowa border through southern Wisconsin. Flood damage is likely widespread in this area. Even those areas that did not receive heavy rains this weekend to the north of this zone have seen a lot of rain in recent weeks, which has caused ponding and flooding of its own. Several more storm systems will move through the region going into next week, providing some better shower chances for those in the east that have been very hot and dry for the last week or two. The rain should help with flash drought conditions that are developing there, but amounts are not forecast to be very heavy outside of the Upper Midwest, more like light to moderate rainfall. But if rain can continue with this sort of frequency, that could be beneficial even if lighter. The pattern stays active well into July, a favorable look to the forecast, or at least not a terrible outlook for those in the east. Northwestern areas would like to see a break.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): It was quiet over the weekend with increasing heat. A front will move through on Wednesday and Thursday with widespread showers and thunderstorms forecast and some milder temperatures, a break the region needs.

But the break from the heat is brief, with temperatures rising again to end the week. Models are forecasting occasional fronts to drift into the region going into July, but not with heavy precipitation, which may be stressful with the higher temperatures.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): Scattered showers went through over the weekend and multiple systems that will move through over the next couple of weeks will continue that trend. Rainfall amounts do not look overly heavy for too many areas, though thunderstorms could produce some patchy areas of it.

Overall, good soil moisture is likely to be maintained, though eastern areas could still use some drier conditions as soggy soils are more widespread there.

Temperatures will be variable, but trend cooler late this week and weekend.

Some limited frost will be possible, but unlikely to be widespread.

BRAZIL (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): A front moved back into the region over the weekend, but the forecast for heavy rain has diminished. Some rain will get into southern safrinha corn areas, but the lack of heavy rain will allow harvest to continue. Another front will go through Friday and Saturday with more scattered showers but also a burst of colder air. Though some frosts will be possible, it will be unlikely to have an affect on either mature corn or germinating winter wheat. Heavy rain from last month and last week continue to limit wheat planting, however.

ARGENTINA (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): Isolated showers went through the country over the weekend, but were light and spotty. Rainfall deficits continue to build up and soil moisture is low for winter wheat establishment. Some more isolated showers will go through this week and a front later this week will bring in a burst of colder temperatures that will produce some frosts for a couple of days.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A system brought scattered showers through most of Europe over the weekend. The system has moved into the Mediterranean, where showers will continue for Italy and the southeast for much of the week, favorable for increasing soil moisture for drought areas in the southeast.

Another couple of systems will move through the continent later this week and weekend, but models have backed off on the heavy rainfall potential for France and Germany, which need an extended break from the rain.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SUNFLOWERS): A few showers went through over the weekend but most areas stayed unfavorably dry. A couple of fronts and systems will bring some limited showers through the region this week and next, but deficits continue to be large throughout most of the region and will have an adverse effect on developing corn and sunflowers. Temperatures will not be overly hot, but should trend more above normal by later this week.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Limited showers moved through over the weekend, but most areas stayed dry. Another system will move through western areas midweek and through eastern areas late this week and weekend. Widespread rainfall, though only light in some areas, should be favorable for wheat and canola establishment.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Heavy rain north, isolated showers south. Temperatures near normal north and above normal south.

East: Heavy rain north, scattered showers south. Temperatures above to well above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures above normal Monday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Thursday, above normal Friday.

East: Mostly dry Monday. Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Wednesday.

Mostly dry Thursday. Scattered showers Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday, above normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near normal Thursday, above normal Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Wednesday.

Temperatures near to above normal Saturday, near to below normal Sunday-Monday, near to above normal Tuesday-Wednesday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers north and west. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures above normal Monday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Wednesday.

Temperatures below normal north and above normal south Saturday-Sunday, near to above normal Monday-Wednesday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers south. Temperatures above to well above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Scattered showers Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday, below normal south and above normal north Tuesday-Thursday, near to above normal Friday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Dry. Temperatures above to well above normal.

Forecast: Dry through Friday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Friday.

John Baranick can be reached at John.Baranick@dtn.com

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