Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A continued active pattern for the U.S. and Canada, wet weather in western Europe, continued dryness in the Black Sea, dryness in central Brazil and flooding rain in southern Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Monday.

SYSTEM AFTER SYSTEM FOR MIDWEST

A couple rounds of scattered showers went through the Midwest over the weekend, although rainfall was overall pretty light in most areas. Planters likely rolled well where conditions weren't too wet. A system will move across the region with more widespread precipitation Monday and Tuesday, hitting wetter areas with more rain. Several more systems are waiting in the pipeline to move through the region through next week. While each may not bring a ton of rainfall on its own, the potential for thunderstorms and heavier rain has increased from last week, which may keep planting slower than normal in some areas. For those with seed in the ground, the consistent rains should be favorable

MULTIPLE SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers went through the Central and Southern Plains over the weekend, including some needed rain in portions of southwestern Kansas and other dry/drought areas. The system continues across the east on Monday. Several more systems will move through the region this week and weekend. Chances are better away from the southwest, but there is potential for at least some there.

SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Some isolated showers moved across the Northern Plains over the weekend, but most areas stayed dry. Several systems will move through over the next week. Some areas of heavy rain are forecast, but others will see little or none. Planting windows should be open for most areas, but others may find some difficulty, especially those that saw heavy rain last week. Temperatures will waffle around as well, but the trend is cooler than normal starting this weekend.

ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES FOR DELTA

Scattered showers went through southern areas of the Delta over the weekend and several systems going through this week and next are likely to move through with widespread showers and thunderstorms as well. The rain is keeping soils moist for newly planted crops, but making it a bit more difficult for those that haven't. However, the region has seen good planting progress in the face of the wetter conditions so far this spring.

MULTIPLE SYSTEMS FOR CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Isolated showers moved into the Canadian Prairies over the weekend, but most areas were favorably dry, allowing wet soils to drain and planters to roll. The storm track is busy through the region, though the path from the northwest will mean more isolated to scattered showers and less widespread heavy rain. Still, it may be enough to produce delays should some areas get hit multiple times. Temperatures will start to trend below normal starting Friday and likely going through next week.

FRONT CREATING MORE FLOODING IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL

A front moved back into southern Brazil last week and produced more heavy rain this weekend over northern Rio Grande do Sul, exacerbating flooding. That front continues with rainfall there Monday but shifts a touch farther north into the southern portions of safrinha corn territory with some showers for Tuesday. Another front reloads over Rio Grande do Sul with heavy rain on Thursday and Friday, with that front shifting north again for the weekend. Central Brazil continues to be hot and dry though, and crop conditions continue to fall there.

WIDESPREAD FROST IN ARGENTINA

Cold and dry conditions over Argentina continue through next week, though far northern areas will catch some rain at times. Overall, the potential for increases in harvest progress continues, though the colder conditions have been producing frosts, which isn't welcome for late-developing crops or newly planted winter wheat.

ANOTHER STORM KEEPING WESTERN EUROPE WET

Another system is moving into Western Europe and be in the area all week, keeping wetter conditions going for the UK and France. The system pushes east over the weekend with plenty of widespread rain. It may turn drier in western Europe for a bit, which would be helpful after this week's heavier rain.

SHOWERS FOR BLACK SEA

Scattered showers ended up falling in far southwestern Russia over the weekend, helping to ease the building drought there. A system in the Black Sea will keep showers there and in southeastern Ukraine for much of the week, a helpful sign for the drier soils there. Colder temperatures have meant frost in central Russia and have been close in eastern Ukraine and southern Russia as well, which may have produced some limited damage. The cooler air continues in the region this week but will rise this weekend.

QUIETER WEATHER IN AUSTRALIA

Scattered showers went through New South Wales in eastern Australia this weekend, which will help with winter wheat and canola establishment. Dry conditions are in place for most areas this week, though. While planting conditions have been pretty smooth, establishment weather hasn't been all that great outside of New South Wales. The hope for better soil moisture will grow as El Nino fades and La Nina takes over in the next couple of months.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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