Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Cold air flowing into the U.S. Plains, a storm system that continues early this week, and a stalled front in central Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Monday.

BIG STORM WORKING THROUGH MIDWEST

A big spring storm moved into the Midwest over the weekend and is bringing heavy snow to the northwest with showers and thunderstorms farther south and east through Tuesday. Some thunderstorms could be severe. Cold air will fill in behind the storm for a few days with the coldest air over the deeper snowpack across Minnesota. The rest of the region will warm up ahead of the next disturbance later this week. Some showers may fall because of that system this weekend. Another system that may stay to the south may bring a renewed shot of colder temperatures for early April. Precipitation from the more active pattern should benefit soil moisture ahead of spring planting.

COLD FLOWING INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A system built in over the weekend with scattered showers Sunday and continues to impact the region Monday with rain changing over to snow from the Panhandles northeast. With breezy winds in the region, that could mean blizzard conditions in some areas. Though precipitation is more limited in this region, some heavier rain fell in Nebraska. Cold air will build in for a few days behind this system, which will bring lows in the 10s through much of HRW territory that could cause damage. The cold relents by late week with more showers possible this weekend before another system goes through early next week. That storm track looks farther south, which would bring more widespread precipitation to the region if it continues on that track.

COLD CONTINUES IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Cold air led to a burst of snow moving into the Northern Plains over the weekend and a storm system brought moderate winds that produced some blizzard conditions in spots as well. The snow has shifted to the eastern Dakotas for Monday before it exits early Tuesday. Some additional showers may move through later this week and weekend, but models are not consistent with any of the details to the system moving through.

SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE FOR DELTA

A cold front will bring a line of showers and thunderstorms through the Delta on Monday, potentially with some severe weather. Another storm will move through early next week with more rainfall. Soils are in good shape across most of the region and big enough breaks between storms could lead to some early planting where it is not too wet. Cooler and wetter conditions may limit planting in most places, though.

FRONT CONTINUES IN CENTRAL BRAZIL

A front settled into central Brazil over the weekend where it produced good showers for safrinha corn. The front will remain stalled almost all week, promising to build in some decent subsoil moisture where reserves have been more limited. At the same time, areas to the south will be much drier and have to rely on that built up soil moisture earlier than normal, which may be harmful if levels get too low too quickly. A little system moving through early next week may provide at least a few showers.

DRIER IN ARGENTINA

A front exited Argentina late last week and brought in cooler and drier conditions over the weekend. Outside of a small disturbance with a few showers for southern areas Tuesday and Wednesday, it should be dry this week, which is not ideal for filling corn and soybeans but will allow for some of the wetter areas to dry out a bit. A system should bring showers through this weekend.

WHEAT GETTING TOO DRY IN BLACK SEA

A system will move through the Black Sea region early this week with some areas of showers, but won't be widespread and some areas of eastern Ukraine and southwestern Russia have been too dry over the last few weeks. Other systems going through Europe will likely escape around the region, which brings in warm air instead. That favors developing winter wheat, but also dries out soils which are going to hope for a slightly more active period next week.

FRANCE AND UK STILL WET IN ACTIVE EUROPEAN PATTERN

A system moved through much of Europe over the weekend with scattered showers. Another big storm will close in on the UK early this week, sending several waves of showers through the continent throughout this week and probably portions of next week as well. Precipitation will be heavier in the west, which favors Spain but not the UK or France, which continue to be too wet.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com.

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