Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Cold air building in Canada that will dip into the U.S., a major storm over the weekend into next week, and a stalled front in central Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

CLIPPER CONTINUES FRIDAY, THEN BIG STORM FOR MIDWEST

A clipper is moving through the Midwest Friday with a burst of snow across the north and some rain for the south. But the big story will be a major spring storm system that will have multiple effects this weekend through the middle of next week including heavy snow, freezing rain, strong winds and severe storm potential. Colder air will flow into the region behind that system as well, though it may not last long outside of areas covered in snow across the north. Another system is forecast to move through later next week as well. The more active pattern should help drought areas to increase soil moisture ahead of spring planting.

BIG STORM FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers and thunderstorms went through the Southern Plains over the last couple of days. A strong system will move through this weekend and early next week that at least has a chance for meaningful precipitation across the southwestern wheat areas, even if that occurs as snow. A burst of arctic air will likely flow down through the region for a couple of days behind that system next week, which could be damaging for some wheat. Another system is forecast for late next week, at least keeping up the chances for meaningful precipitation. Building soil moisture will be a good thing for much of the region.

COLD AND POTENTIAL BLIZZARD FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Cold air will likely last in the Northern Plains through most of next week. A system went through on Thursday with some moderate snow in some places. A larger storm will produce more widespread snow starting Saturday evening and continuing into Tuesday across the eastern Dakotas. With strong winds likely to be around as well, blizzard conditions are expected for a time. Another system is likely to move through later next week with showers as well. The more active pattern should help to build in some soil moisture over the warm ground and ease the drought that has been slowly building in a lot of the region.

MORE ROUNDS OF GOOD SHOWERS FOR DELTA

A system moving through the Delta on Friday and another early next week should continue to maintain good soil moisture in much of the region. Wetter and cooler conditions may put the brakes on thoughts of early planting in some areas, especially north.

FRONT SETTLING INTO CENTRAL BRAZIL

A strong front is settling into central Brazil on Friday, where it will enhance showers through next week. That should leave some good rain for much of the safrinha corn that has had very little over the last week, building subsoil moisture that is lacking in the region. It will be drier behind the front across the south, which is not exactly a good thing for immature crops there, but it has been raining recently so the effects may not be all that bad. However, subsoil moisture here is limited as well and could use more rain.

DRIER AND COOLER IN ARGENTINA

A strong front moved through Argentina with a round of good showers over the last couple of days. It will be drier behind it through at least the weekend. A burst of cooler temperatures will reduce stress, though. We may see a disturbance bring some showers to southern areas Tuesday and Wednesday. Otherwise, it will have to wait until later in the week. The dryness is not a concern and could be beneficial to some areas that have had too much rain lately, helping them to dry out.

WHEAT IN GOOD CONDITION IN BLACK SEA

An upper-low in the Black Sea will keep some showers going across southwestern Russia through Saturday. A front should move into the Black Sea region next week with the potential for more showers, followed by another system later next week. Wheat conditions are in good shape as the crop continues to green up early. Rainfall has been more limited lately, and more would be preferred, so the chances for rain in the forecast will offer some benefit.

FRANCE STILL WET IN ACTIVE EUROPEAN PATTERN

A larger system dives down through Europe this weekend with widespread showers and next week looks active as well with another system moving into western Europe that may get stuck with consistent showers in the west. Eastern areas will get some precipitation but will be more limited. Overall, conditions are favorable for winter wheat in most areas, but still too wet in France and the UK, and a bit too dry in the southeast.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com.

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