DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

A ridge is popping up in western Canada and will get into Alaska a bit as well this week and weekend. That will drive several clipper systems through North America this week and weekend with some cooler air at times. A semi-permanent trough will be the result near Hudson Bay. At the same time, troughs continue to move through Mexico and the South over the next two weeks which adds more potential for storms but also floods the country with milder Pacific air.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The active pattern will continue through next week but predictions of storms will be difficult and changing with both jet streams, one north and one south, being active over North America.

The U.S. and European models are having trouble with all the impulses and potential storm systems moving through the country and cannot settle on temperature or precipitation patterns at all. This makes for a difficult forecast, even within the next day or two.

For the outlook period, the active but uncertain pattern will continue next week. Temperatures may fluctuate wildly between systems and a few are likely to move through the country.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH SUN...88 AT PLANT CITY, FL AND BASSVILLE PARK, FL

LOW SUN...25 BELOW ZERO AT PETER SINKS, UT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CT SUNDAY...MONTGOMERY, AL 2.57 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

A ridge is popping up in western Canada and will get into Alaska a bit as well this week and weekend. That will drive several clipper systems through North America this week and weekend with some cooler air at times. A semi-permanent trough will be the result near Hudson Bay. At the same time, troughs continue to move through Mexico and the South over the next two weeks which adds more potential for storms but also floods the country with milder Pacific air. The two thoughts will be competing with each other, though the stormier pattern looks like it'll win out either way.

The U.S. and European models are having trouble with all the impulses and potential storm systems moving through the country and cannot settle on temperature or precipitation patterns at all. This makes for a difficult forecast, even within the next day or two.

For the outlook period, the active but uncertain pattern will continue next week. Temperatures may fluctuate wildly between systems and a few are likely to move through the country.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Some isolated snow showers flew around over the weekend, but most areas stayed dry. Several small systems will move through over the next couple of weeks. They may not bring much precipitation, though some streaks of heavier snow will be possible. But they will also have a tendency to bring down some colder air starting on Wednesday.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): A system developed over the weekend and brought some moderate to heavy snow across the south and west.

Precipitation ends early Monday. A clipper will move off to the north on Wednesday and could bring some showers to northern areas. Another could do something similar on Thursday and Friday. But that one may be able to tap into more moisture from the south going into the weekend. Clippers are likely to move through the area next week as well. Temperatures could vary wildly between these systems.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A band of showers and thunderstorms went across the southern end of the region over the weekend and another storm is going to bring more showers to the south Monday into early Tuesday. It may be just cold enough for some snow in some sections. A clipper will move through Wednesday and Thursday and bring more scattered showers but also some colder air. Clippers will be common then through next week and temperatures could vary significantly from day to day as systems come and go.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Heavy rain and thunderstorms went through over the weekend and continue in northern areas on Monday, which includes some accumulating snow. The heavy rain continues to ease drought conditions and flooding has been more significant recently. Another system will come through on Friday and Saturday with more potential for rain.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers continued across central Brazil over the weekend while being very isolated across the south. This week that will flip as showers become isolated in central Brazil and fronts moving north from Argentina bring heavier rain to southern areas. The south has been too dry for several weeks and needs the rain. By the weekend, showers are forecast to be widespread and heavy for much of the country, beneficial for everything but fieldwork as soybeans are still being harvest and safrinha corn is still being planted. Southern areas will not be wet for long as it gets unfavorably dry again next week.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Heavy rain fell last week and continued over the weekend as well, putting an end to the hot and dry conditions that caused corn and soybeans to suffer from mid-January. Another front will move through Monday into Tuesday with another round of widespread heavy rain. Another system is forecast to move into the country next weekend, keeping the moisture coming that could turn conditions back around and make them favorable again.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): Scattered showers went through most of the continent over the weekend, including southern areas that have been that had been dry.

Showers continue in the south on Monday but the main storm track will be farther north for most of this week, though some showers may go through southeastern areas and Italy this weekend. While crops are vulnerable to winterkill with no significant snow cover, there are no risks of arctic freeze.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON/SORGHUM): Some isolated showers went through Queensland over the weekend, but many areas stayed dry. Eastern areas will catch some showers moving through this week, but most of these will be isolated. Heat across the west and southeast could be detrimental for cotton and sorghum.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures above to well above normal.

East: Isolated showers south. Temperatures above to well above normal.

Forecast:

West: Scattered showers far south Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Scattered showers Friday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Thursday, near to below normal Friday.

East: Scattered showers south Monday, ending early Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Thursday, near to above normal Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Tuesday.

Isolated showers Wednesday. Temperatures near to below normal Saturday, near to above normal Sunday-Wednesday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers, heavier south. Temperatures below normal west and above normal east.

Forecast: Showers ending southeast early Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday. Isolated showers north Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures below normal south and above normal north Monday-Tuesday, above normal Wednesday-Thursday, near to below normal north and above normal south Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Isolated showers Monday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to below normal Saturday, near to above normal Sunday-Wednesday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers south. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers Monday. Scattered showers Tuesday-Friday.

Temperatures above normal through Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Friday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers Monday. Isolated showers Tuesday-Friday.

Temperatures near to above normal through Friday.

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