Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Warmth across the U.S. but a major system moving through, continued good weather in most of Brazil, and hot and dry conditions in Argentina are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

NEAR-RECORD WARM FOR MIDWEST

Warm temperatures continue to eat away at the snowpack in the Midwest and the warmth will continue through next week. A storm system will likely go around the region this weekend but may clip southwestern areas with rain. Otherwise, the region will wait until later next week for the next significant chance for precipitation.

STORM COMING FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A system will move through the Central and Southern Plains Friday through the weekend with areas of heavy rain and some potential snow in Colorado and western Nebraska. Another round of good precipitation would be helpful for dormant wheat. The region may see some additional precipitation with a system later next week.

VERY WARM FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers are forecast to return to the Northern Plains this weekend, with snow west and rain east. Additional precipitation is expected by the middle of next week, likely as a mix of rain and snow as well. The precipitation should help with some of the recent dryness in the region. Temperatures will continue to run above normal through next week.

SIGNIFICANT DROUGHT REDUCTION IN DELTA

Heavy rain in the Delta last week improved soil moisture and taken a significant step toward eliminating drought in the region. Water levels along the Mississippi River and local rivers are also much higher, increasing transportation. The region will see another system moving through with heavy rain this weekend.

SHOWERS EXPANDING ACROSS BRAZIL

Scattered rain showers are expanding southward through Brazil for the next several days, getting as far south as Parana by the weekend. The recent break in the rain could be helping with fieldwork, the progress of which has slowed down in recent weeks a bit. Northern areas could see a bit too much rain, which may slow fieldwork progress a bit in some areas. The pace of harvest and planting is still at a near-average pace at this point in the season.

VERY HOT AND DRY FOR ARGENTINA

It continues to be hot and dry in Argentina through the weekend, threatening to reduce crop conditions and could quickly turn these good ratings around. Temperatures have been eclipsing the 100-degree mark on several days across the west and south this week and the heat should last into next week. Soil moisture is declining and is not good for the portion of the crop in the reproductive and filling stages, which is sizable for both. Models are indicating better chances for precipitation in the country sometime next week but disagree on the timing.

DRYNESS CONTINUES FOR SOUTHERN EUROPE

Precipitation continues to be limited across Spain and Italy for vegetative wheat as the storm track remains over northern Europe. Temperatures are above normal across much of the continent through next week. The next best chance for rain across the south comes late next week.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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