Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Warmth across the U.S., continued good weather in most of Brazil, and drier conditions in Argentina are the weather factors driving the markets Monday.

WARM FOR MIDWEST

Warm temperatures and rain have eaten away at a lot of the snowpack in the Midwest over the last week. The warmth will continue this week and next, though some eastern areas could see some milder temperatures this weekend and early next week. Some flooding will be possible where the combination of snowmelt and rainfall has been the most intense, especially in Illinois. Weak systems will move through Tuesday and Thursday with limited showers, but most areas should stay dry.

STORM COMING FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Heavier rain that moved through the Central and Southern Plains late last week helped with some of the drought in the region. It will be largely warm this week with a system moving through Friday and Saturday with heavy rain and potential snow in Colorado and western Nebraska. Another round of good precipitation would be helpful for dormant wheat.

VERY WARM FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

It was warm and dry in the Northern Plains this weekend. These conditions will largely continue for the next week, though there may be some showers in spots this weekend, particularly in Montana. The warm and dry conditions will keep demand low for livestock but could be increasing dryness and drought in the region.

MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT PASSABLE LEVELS

Heavy rain over the last week has improved soil moisture and water levels along the Mississippi River and local rivers, increasing transportation and reducing drought effects. The region will be drier this week but will see another system moving through with showers this weekend.

SHOWERS EXPANDING ACROSS BRAZIL

Scattered, heavy rain showers moved into northern Brazil this weekend but will be expanding southward throughout the week, getting as far south as Parana by the weekend. The break in the rain could help with fieldwork, the progress of which has slowed down in recent weeks a bit. The pace of harvest and planting is still on a near-average pace at this point in the season.

WORSENING CONDITIONS FOR ARGENTINA

Another week of dry conditions in Argentina threatens to reduce crop conditions again and could quickly turn these good ratings around when combined with the coming higher temperatures, which could eclipse the 100-degree mark on several days for the next week across the west and south especially. Soil moisture is still good, but the increased stress will not be for the portion of the crop in reproductive and filling stages, which is sizable for both. Models are indicating better chances for precipitation in the country sometime next week.

DRIER FOR SOUTHERN EUROPE

Precipitation continues to be limited across Spain and Italy for vegetative wheat as the storm track remains over northern Europe. Temperatures are expected to be above normal across much of the continent through next week.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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