DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a trough in the Central with another in northern Canada. A ridge is developing behind them in the West with another trough in the Pacific. The Canadian trough will deepen in Hudson Bay this week while most of the U.S. trough will shift east. Part of it will be left behind around northern Mexico this week. The Pacific trough will move into the West late week and deepen. It will force the Mexican trough through the East late this week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The pattern will be somewhat complicated this weekend through next week, but in general looks like a ridge in western Canada with a trough in Hudson Bay and parts of the U.S.

The U.S. and European models show the same sort of pattern, but are different in the details. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

For the outlook period, the upper-level pattern supports a warmer West and cooler Central and East, though there could be some variation in that. A system may form off of a cold front this weekend and push east across the country. We will have to watch for a clipper system to follow it next week.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...88 AT MILES CITY, FL AND SUNNILAND, FL

LOW MON...3 AT MOUNT WASHINGTON, NH

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CT MONDAY...WEST PALM BEACH, FL 1.34 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

There is a trough in the Central with another in northern Canada. A ridge is developing behind them in the West with another trough in the Pacific. The Canadian trough will deepen in Hudson Bay this week while most of the U.S. trough will shift east. Part of it will be left behind around northern Mexico this week. The Pacific trough will move into the West late week and deepen. It will force the Mexican trough through the East late this week. The pattern will be somewhat complicated this weekend through next week, but in general looks like a ridge in western Canada with a trough in Hudson Bay and parts of the U.S.

The U.S. and European models show the same sort of pattern, but are different in the details. I will use a blend but favor the European.

For the outlook period, the upper-level pattern supports a warmer West and cooler Central and East, though there could be some variation in that. A system may form off a cold front this weekend and push east across the country. We will have to watch for a clipper system to follow it next week.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A cold front will sag south through the region on Wednesday, bringing snow to western areas and a sharp drop in temperatures below normal. A reinforcing shot of colder air is possible this weekend into next week.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): A system brought scattered showers to mostly eastern sections of the region over the last few days. Those showers largely missed drier western wheat areas, unfavorable for wheat there.

Another system may bring showers to Texas Thursday and a cold front dropping south could bring highland snow and a burst of much colder air into the weekend. A system may form along that front and push eastward over the weekend.

Drier areas in the southwest may pick up some precipitation out of this, mostly in the form of snow, but otherwise helpful.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A system continues to bring widespread rain through the region on Tuesday, easing drought in some areas, but delaying the remaining harvest and fieldwork. A stronger cold front will move through later this week with a burst of colder air. More showers may move through this weekend but are forecast to be light.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): A system brought widespread moderate to locally heavy rain on Monday that will produce limited benefits to drought. The rain farther north will help with water levels on the Mississippi River, but it is still very dry and the river will run low for a while yet.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): Heavy rain, more typical of the wet season showers in central Brazil, will continue all week long. Deficits are large here and will take more than a week's worth of normal rainfall to turn around, but will be beneficial for developing soybeans. Showers do look to become more isolated for next week. Another round of heavier rain will move back into southern Brazil for Wednesday and Thursday, with potential for more this weekend. Any breaks from the wet pattern are looking to be short across the south, unfavorable for developing corn and soybeans.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A front will move through Tuesday and Wednesday with scattered showers but then be drier again until next week.

Though the dryness is not welcome, soil conditions are more favorable than they were earlier season or in previous years, a good turn around in conditions. As long as the drier weather does not last too long, the overall favorable conditions continue. Rain is forecast to move back through early-to-mid next week.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): Scattered showers continued over much of the continent again this weekend, keeping soil moisture high for most areas outside of Spain, where dryness is starting to creep in again. Showers continue across southern areas early this week while a system will go through the northeast later this week and bring down temperatures across most of the continent. A somewhat active pattern continues across the continent next week. Some areas could use a break to allow for more planting and sunlight, but conditions continue to be overall very favorable for winter wheat establishment.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): A system moved through with scattered showers this weekend, which included snow in some areas. Colder air will continue to be more common than not, edging winter wheat toward dormancy but in mostly good condition.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): It was mostly dry over the weekend. A system will move through midweek with a burst of colder air again as winter wheat and canola edge toward dormancy in mostly good condition. Winter precipitation will be important for building up irrigation come spring time.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/COTTON/SORGHUM): Scattered showers fell over eastern areas over the weekend, helping to ease extremely dry conditions in a lot of this part of the country. These showers continue all this week. It is too late for wheat and canola, but will help cotton and sorghum.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures above to well above normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated showers Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal through Thursday, near to below normal Friday-Saturday.

East: Scattered showers Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal through Thursday, below normal Friday-Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Sunday-Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday-Thursday. Temperatures below normal Sunday-Thursday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures above to well above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Tuesday-Wednesday. Isolated showers south Thursday.

Scattered showers Friday-Saturday, heavy snow possible west. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday, above normal north and below normal south Wednesday-Thursday, below normal Friday-Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday. Mostly dry Monday-Thursday. Temperatures below normal Sunday-Thursday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers north. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday-Thursday, north Friday-Saturday. Temperatures above normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday, near to below normal Friday-Saturday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday.

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