Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Up-and-down temperatures and occasional precipitation in the U.S., improved rain for Argentina, heavy rain returning to southern Brazil, and dryness in central Brazil are the weather factors driving Tuesday's markets.

VARIABLE TEMPERATURES, LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR MIDWEST

Scattered showers moved through northern areas of the Midwest Sunday night and Monday, slowing progress for fieldwork. Temperatures have risen and will be warm this week until another front moves through Wednesday and Thursday. That front will bring more showers through the region and put temperatures back down to normal but any chilly air will not last long with warmer temperatures building again next week. The up-and-down temperature pattern and occasional precipitation will make the remaining fieldwork difficult in some cases, especially across the north, but could help with water levels on the Mississippi River.

RAIN COMING FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A front will move through the Central Plains the next few days but be mostly dry until Thursday when a disturbance develops, bringing showers to the Southern Plains which should be helpful for winter wheat. Temperatures will be mostly near or above normal for the next couple of weeks, making moisture important for root development before wheat goes dormant for winter.

MIXED SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Temperatures rose significantly in the Northern Plains this weekend and melted a lot of the snowpack, though some remains over northeast North Dakota where fieldwork will be slow. A few disturbances will move through this week, with mixed precipitation and continued difficulties in accomplishing the remaining fieldwork.

SHOWERS FORECAST FOR THE DELTA

It was dry in the Delta over the weekend. A front will come through late this week with scattered showers. It will only slightly ease drought but precipitation farther north could continue to aid water levels on the Lower Mississippi River, which has seen good rises over the last week, but far from normal flow. Drought continues to be a heavy influence as well.

CENTRAL BRAZIL DRIER, SOUTHERN BRAZIL WET AGAIN

Southern Brazil finally got a break from the heavy rain this weekend, but it will not last long as another system moves in later this week and weekend with the potential for more heavy rain that will exacerbate flooding and wetness issues for the remaining wheat harvest as well as corn and soybean planting. Central areas got a nice boost in precipitation coverage last week, but that has moved north for this week. Occasional showers through the weekend will be well below normal in coverage and intensity, causing a return to more concerns for the soybean crop where planting is slow. This may lead to issues with the safrinha crop later this season.

SHOWERS INCREASE FOR ARGENTINA

A system will move through Argentina with scattered showers on Tuesday and Wednesday, while another system will move through Friday through this weekend. Rainfall should be beneficial for most areas as the weather continues to take a positive turn for corn and soybeans.

MORE WAVES OF SHOWERS FOR EUROPE

Wave after wave of showers have moved through Europe over the last couple of weeks, which has largely eliminated any areas of drought outside of the far southeast, but those areas have also had some beneficial rainfall as well. Above-normal temperatures have also been positive for winter wheat establishment. The same pattern continues all this week and next week as well.

WARMTH AND OCCASIONAL RAIN FOR THE BLACK SEA

Areas of showers will move across the Black Sea region through next week, which should be beneficial. With temperatures continuing to stay above normal, all rainfall will be helpful for winter wheat establishment before the crop goes dormant later this month.

SHOWERS FOR EASTERN AUSTRALIA

Scattered showers and areas of heavy rain continue in eastern Australia for most of the week as the hot and dry El Nino pattern takes a break. The rain is too late for winter wheat and canola and will hamper harvest instead. In contrast, the rain will benefit cotton and sorghum planting and establishment. Dryness elsewhere is unfavorable for all crops.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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