DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a trough in the East, another moving down the Rockies, and another in the Gulf of Alaska. The eastern trough won't move much until later this week. The Rockies trough will move down into the Southern Plains Tuesday, then east across the Southeast. The Alaska trough will move into the North-Central U.S. later this week in a couple of pieces.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The pattern favors an eastern trough going into early May, a colder outlook for much of the country. Meanwhile, a western ridge may develop later this week, favoring rising temperatures there. That ridge will drift eastward later next week.

The U.S. and European models are similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Sunday will be below normal east of the Rockies and above normal in the West. This pattern will generally continue into early May. A system will still be working through eastern areas this weekend, but should be drier to the West.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...100 AT DEATH VALLEY, CA

LOW MON...3 AT PETER SINKS, UT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CT MONDAY...PORTLAND, ME 1.61 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

There is a trough in the East, another moving down the Rockies, and another in the Gulf of Alaska. The eastern trough won't move much until later this week. The Rockies trough will move down into the Southern Plains Tuesday, then east across the Southeast. The Alaska trough will move into the North-Central U.S. later this week in a couple of pieces. All three will maintain an eastern trough going into early May, a colder outlook for much of the country.

Meanwhile, a western ridge will develop later this week, favoring rising temperatures there.

The U.S. and European models are similar. I will use a blend but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures Sunday will be below normal east of the Rockies and above normal in the West. This pattern will generally continue into early May. A system will still be working through eastern areas this weekend but should be drier to the West.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Below-normal temperatures continue for the next week, but will still be warm enough to continue melting the snowpack in the region. A system moving through later this week will bring in scattered showers, mostly in the form of rain despite the cooler temperatures. Rain should not be heavy enough to increase pressure on the ongoing flooding across the Red River by too much, but the colder temperatures will slow the drying process, limiting fieldwork and planting.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WHEAT/LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system will bring widespread showers to the drought areas over the next few days, and could be substantial in some areas. That will help to reduce the impact of the drought but will not make much of a dent in it. Additional showers could be possible late this week with another system. Wheat may not benefit from the rain too much due to poor conditions, but the increased soil moisture would favor corn and soybean planting and establishment.

MIDWEST (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Cold air produced frosts and freezes over the last few mornings. Additional frosts continue this week. The cold air may cause damage to more-developed wheat and emergent corn and soybeans. Showers will be limited for most of the week, but a system will come through late week and weekend with widespread showers, mostly in the form of rain. Cooler temperatures will generally be in place into early May, unfavorable for planting and somewhat dangerous for additional frosts.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): Scattered showers are expected with a couple of systems this week. Many areas of the region are wet, limiting spring planting.

Areas that have been able to plant will find good conditions for germination and early growth, though temperatures will be on the cooler end of normal through the end of the month. Northern areas may catch a frost as well.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): Below-normal temperatures continues to limit melting of the heavy snowpack across the east. Western areas with less snow cover should see higher temperatures, but only slightly. The overall cooler nature will continue to limit or prohibit fieldwork and seeding across the east, but western areas may see a window opening. Some showers will move through with a system this week, being a mix of rain and snow, but should dry out afterward.

BRAZIL (CORN): A system will move through southern areas with some showers over the next few days while northern areas catch the end of isolated wet season showers at times. Overall, corn conditions are good for the time-being, with an eye toward additional rain for the next couple of weeks and potential frosts through June.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A system brought some showers to northern areas over the last couple of days. Most of the agricultural areas missed out and conditions are favorable for harvesting a severely damaged crop.

Winter wheat areas are in need of more moisture as the crop will start to be planted in the next week or two. A system moving through Sunday and Monday may provide some of that needed moisture.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A couple of systems will spread showers through most of the continent over the next week. Spain is in drought and in need of more rain for both winter and summer crops, but will largely stay dry.

Conditions across most of the rest of the continent are in good shape.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): More showers are expected with another system that will slowly move through this week. Some chilly air may move into Ukraine this weekend, but conditions continue to be mostly favorable for winter wheat development and corn planting.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/OILSEEDS/CORN/SOYBEANS): Drier conditions have been in place for a while across the North China Plain into the northeast. Irrigation has been needed for developing winter wheat and oilseeds. Some periods of showers will move through over the next week, but do not look to be that widespread. This could be a slow start for corn and soybean planting.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Weather conditions over the summer and fall season have been favorable to keep soil moisture abundant prior to winter grain and oilseed planting, which should be starting up. A system will move through with showers this week, but overall, conditions are good for winter crop planting. The likely occurrence of El Nino in the next couple of months should have a detrimental effect on precipitation across eastern Australia at some point, but conditions are good for now.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers. Temperatures below to well below normal.

East: Isolated showers. Temperatures below to well below normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated showers Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday-Saturday. Temperatures below normal through Wednesday, near normal Thursday, below normal Friday-Saturday.

East: Isolated showers Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday-Saturday. Temperatures below normal through Thursday, near normal Friday, near to below normal Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Temperatures below normal Sunday-Thursday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures below to well below normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures below normal through Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Sunday-Monday. Isolated showers Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Thursday. Temperatures below normal Sunday-Wednesday, near normal Thursday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Saturday.

Temperatures near normal through Saturday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias.

Summary: Isolated showers south. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers through Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday.

Temperatures near normal through Saturday.

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