DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...95 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE, TX

LOW WED...20 BELOW ZERO AT CHOTEAU, MT

24 HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 6PM CT WEDNESDAY...MIAMI BEACH, FL 1.85 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

There is a ridge in the east and a trough in the West with another ridge up near Alaska. The trough will push eastward through the country over the next few days. The trough will be reinforced by several pieces of energy over Hudson Bay this weekend through next week as part of a pattern change. The subtropical jet will remain active next week, bringing several disturbances through the U.S. into next weekend.

The U.S. and European models are fairly close. I will use a blend but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Tuesday will be below normal across most of the U.S. and continue that way for most of next week. A couple of shots of reinforcing cold air will move through next week. Some light precipitation is expected with each one, but there is some potential to get heavier precipitation across the southern half of the country early to mid-next week with one of the disturbances.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): Heavy snow is falling in the region this morning which will continue into Friday morning before clearing out. Some areas are likely to see over 12 inches of accumulation in the Dakotas. With strong winds developing, blizzard conditions will be possible Thursday into Friday. Very cold air is moving in behind the system, lasting through next week with a couple of reinforcing shots of arctic air and some light snow.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (CORN/SOYBEANS/WHEAT/LIVESTOCK): A strong storm system to the north is sweeping a cold front through the region Thursday. A line of showers is moving through with the front, but is very weak as drought continues to build across western areas. Gusty winds are coming with the system as well, which continues to dry out soils. Much colder air follows the system, with colder air lasting through next week. This could start to turn wheat dormant in poor condition. Another cold front will push through early next week with some additional showers and potential for accumulating snow across southern areas.

There is some limited potential for precipitation over southwestern areas, mostly in the Texas Panhandle.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A stronger storm will push through Thursday and Friday with strong winds and potential for heavier showers across the north and a push of colder air. Some snow will be possible in Minnesota.

The colder air will last through next week with a couple of reinforcing shots that may also bring some showers, mostly in the form of snow.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): Some isolated showers may develop along a front on Friday, but dryness continues through the weekend. Water levels are forecast to remain largely unchanged or with a slight boost higher for the next week due to some better precipitation farther north. A system may bring showers to the region early next week.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS/WHEAT): Isolated showers are returning to the country, filling into southern areas on Friday. The showers will not last long over southern areas as another front clears out the area on Monday. If showers disappoint, soil moisture in southern areas will decline, starting to impact corn and to a lesser extent, soybeans. Showers next week may still be possible for southern areas, but unlikely. Central areas should fare better with showers continuing.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WHEAT): Isolated showers are moving back into the country, but will be cleared out on Sunday. A long period of dryness has had a significant effect on filling wheat as well as corn and soybean planting and establishment. Showers may still go through late next week with a weaker cold front, but will likely be isolated. If showers disappoint over the next few days, the drought will likely start to damage corn and soybeans, as well as push back planting even further.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): A system brought scattered showers through the continent this week. The system is getting cut off across the south where showers will move back west through Italy over the weekend. The southeast has been drier and missing the rains lately, otherwise conditions are mostly favorable for winter wheat establishment outside of some dry pockets from France to the southeast. A few fronts will go through next week with showers as well, mostly for western areas.

BLACK SEA (CORN/SUNFLOWERS/WINTER WHEAT): Drier conditions are likely into next week with some showers possible in Russia this weekend. Warmer air has kept wheat active and avoiding dormancy, beneficial for root development. Some colder air will start to move in next week.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/SORGHUM/COTTON): Recent heavy rainfall has caused a decrease in crop quality and flood damage. Some showers may pop up at times over the next two days, but will be spotty. A system should bring more organized rain through the eastern half of the country this weekend, which would be unfavorable. It does dry out for several days behind the system.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers north. Temperatures well above normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures well above normal.

Forecast:

West: Scattered showers Thursday. Isolated snow north Friday-Sunday. Scattered showers Monday. Temperatures above to well above normal Thursday, below to well below normal Friday-Monday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Mostly dry Monday.

Temperatures well above normal Thursday, near to above normal Friday, below normal Saturday-Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Saturday.

Temperatures below to well below normal Tuesday-Saturday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers north. Temperatures well above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Sunday. Scattered showers Monday, mostly south. Temperatures below normal northwest and well above normal southeast Thursday, below to well below normal Friday-Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Tuesday-Saturday. Temperatures below to well below normal Tuesday-Saturday.

Mississippi Delta (winter wheat/soybeans/cotton)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures well above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Thursday. Isolated showers Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Scattered showers Monday. Temperatures well above normal Thursday, near normal Friday, below to well below normal Saturday-Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Scattered showers Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Saturday.

Temperatures below to well below normal Tuesday-Saturday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Thursday. Scattered showers Friday-Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Monday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated showers north. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures near normal through Monday.

John Baranick can be reached at John.Baranick@dtn.com

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