Commodities Market Impact Weather

Heat Increasing With Limited Rains

John Baranick
By  John Baranick , DTN Meteorologist

GRAND ISLAND, Neb. (DTN) -- Rising temperatures in the U.S. with limited rains and mixed conditions in South America are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

NORTHERN MIDWEST EXPECTING SHOWERS

Temperatures in the Midwest will rise well above normal going into the weekend and continue into most of next week, which should help push crops toward maturity. Scattered showers will be possible over northern areas into next week while the southeast stays much drier. There may be some late benefit to late-planted corn and soybeans in the area, but not much.

LIMITED RAINS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Drought continues to have a strong hold on the Central and Southern Plains while producers are thinking about winter wheat planting. Pieces of energy will move through the Northern Plains for the next week but may be enough to produce some limited areas of rain. The larger wheat areas and pastures are not forecast to see much coverage or intensity while temperatures rise well above normal. The region will await potential for a cold front to become stalled in the region next week, which could bring rounds of heavier rain, but models are uncertain if this will occur or not.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN PLAINS

Several disturbances will move through the Northern Plains through the middle of next week, resulting in periods of showers. Rains may have some late benefit to filling soybeans, but not likely for corn. Temperatures may waffle but be mostly above normal until possibly the middle of next week when a cooler shot may occur.

DRY IN THE DELTA

In the Delta, dry conditions and rising temperatures over the next week should help crops toward maturity and improve quality for some of the wetter areas.

SHOWERS FOR CANADIAN PRAIRIES HARVEST

Fairly good harvest conditions in the Canadian Prairies over the last week or two have turned into a more-active pattern this week as periods of isolated to scattered showers move through. Delays to harvest may occur into the middle of next week but are likely to be followed by good conditions.

BENEFICIAL RAINS IN BRAZIL

A stalled front will continue to produce periods of showers and thunderstorms across southern Brazil Thursday, but not in Rio Grande do Sul, which will help with wheat harvest. Some showers have made it into central Brazil this week, and more could be possible this weekend into next week. But that should not be the start of the wet season, which typically comes at the end of the month. Models are forecasting that to mostly be on time this season, unusual for La Nina conditions.

CONTINUED DRYNESS AND TURNING COLD AGAIN IN ARGENTINA

Dryness in Argentina this week is unfavorable as soil moisture is limited prior to the first round of corn planting, which is going to see some delays this year. Showers may come at the end of the weekend, which would help, but will be followed by another round of cold air. Additional frosts may be damaging to wheat.

MORE FAVORABLE RAIN FOR BLACK SEA WHEAT PLANTING

Periods of showers will be in the Black Sea region going through next week, boosting soil moisture for winter wheat planting. Cooler air will settle in this weekend and next week, which may result in frosts in some areas. If it does, that would put an end to any corn or sunflowers that are still filling, and limit winter wheat establishment some.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

John Baranick