Commodities Market Impact Weather

Caveats to a Hot, Dry August Forecast

John Baranick
By  John Baranick , DTN Meteorologist

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Though hot and dry conditions are forecast for August, small disturbances bringing scattered showers should be on traders' minds Monday.

MIDWEST HOTTER BUT WITH RAIN CHANCES

Scattered showers went through far southern and western areas of the Midwest over the weekend while it was dry elsewhere. A few fronts will be moving through the region over the next couple of weeks, bringing some showers and thunderstorms through, but likely being widely scattered instead of persistent and widespread. Some areas will receive beneficial precipitation while others will be left out. When showers miss, the heat will increase, causing stress.

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS HOT AND DRY AGAIN

Scattered showers went through the Southern Plains over the weekend and a stripe of heavier rain fell from the Texas Panhandle through northern Oklahoma. With a ridge in the region for the next couple of weeks, hotter and drier conditions can be expected, putting stress on both plants and animals.

HEAT WITH LIMITED RAIN IN NORTHERN PLAINS

Isolated showers moved through the Northern Plains over the weekend and will continue to do so for the next couple of weeks while disturbances ride the top of the ridge through Canada. When fronts and showers are not moving through, temperatures will be above normal and stress to crops will be more likely with declining soil moisture.

STRESS REDUCTION MAY NOT LAST FOR DELTA

A stalled front caused widespread showers and thunderstorms in the Delta over the weekend, easing stress from recent hot and dry conditions. While some showers may be possible throughout the week, it is more likely that the region stays dry. If dryness does occur, heat will increase, causing further stress to the region.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST COOLING OFF

Hot and dry conditions in the Pacific Northwest over the weekend will relax early this week as several troughs pass through the region. While temperatures should come back toward normal, precipitation chances are lower than we might expect given the more active storm track. Soil moisture continues to decline, causing crop conditions to drop for the rest of the season even though they are mostly excellent currently. Conditions are favorable for winter wheat harvest, however.

STORM TRACK CONTINUING THROUGH CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Scattered showers went through the Canadian Prairies over the weekend. Though not all areas were hit, showers did roll through some of the drier areas in southern Alberta and central Saskatchewan. With the storm track continuing through the region through early next week, multiple chances for showers and mixed temperatures will be beneficial for filling out wheat and canola.

FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHERN BRAZIL WHEAT

A front will bring scattered showers to southern Brazil Thursday through the middle of next week, keeping soil moisture high as wheat continues to develop and approach reproduction. The showers may get into the states of Parana and Mato Grosso do Sul, which could disrupt the remaining corn harvest in these areas.

ARGENTINA WHEAT LACKING SOIL MOISTURE

A system will bring showers to northern Argentina Tuesday and Wednesday but miss the primary wheat areas which are more in need. Southern areas may get another needed drink of water next week with a system developing in the region.

SHOWERS CONTINUING IN THE BLACK SEA

A ridge is settling over the region but is being impinged on the western end by a system moving through. That system will split into two with one piece traveling into the northern Black Sea, bringing scattered showers all week long to eastern Ukraine and southwestern Russia. The showers will continue to benefit developing to reproductive corn and sunflowers but make conditions more difficult for wheat harvest. Where showers do not occur, temperatures will be higher, hastening crop development.

HEATWAVE IN EUROPE BUILDING THIS WEEK

Scattered showers went through central and eastern Europe over the weekend. With that system departing, heat will be building up across much of the continent this week, though a cold front will bring temperatures down for northern areas at the end of the week going into the weekend. Heat and a lack of showers will stress some corn areas, though wheat will continue to have more favorable harvest conditions.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

John Baranick