Commodities Market Impact Weather

Forecast Changes for Next Week

John Baranick
By  John Baranick , DTN Meteorologist

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A change in the weather pattern for next week in North America and a heatwave in Europe are the weather factors holding the market's attention Tuesday.

LIMITED SHOWERS WITH HEAT FOR MIDWEST

Widespread showers moved through the Midwest over the weekend, favoring many areas and bringing relief to dry and drought-stressed areas, especially in central Indiana. A system moving along the Canadian border this week will keep showers over northern areas while temperatures rise above normal going into the weekend. More isolated showers are expected over the weekend and models have just started to grab onto the possibility of a stronger cold front next week. That would bring temperatures down further as well as give much of the region a shot of rainfall that would be very helpful should it occur.

FORECAST CHANGES FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A few showers moved through the Central Plains over the weekend but so did higher temperatures. Few areas of the region have good soil moisture and the heat in the region will stress crops and increase the need for irrigation. Some showers may move through northern areas over the weekend, but most areas will remain dry as drought and stresses continue to mount this week. Models just grabbed onto the possibility of a stronger cold front next week that could bring temperatures down for much of the region, along with needed showers.

NOT AS HOT FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers are moving along the Canada border with a potent little system. Some strong wind gusts are occurring Tuesday on its backside and temperatures are falling at least a little bit. Showers will move through again this weekend but will be spottier. Soil moisture is still favorable for most of the region, though there are some dry spots showing up where showers have been missing more. Wheat is in overall good shape, but corn and soybeans are going to need additional showers. A stronger cold front may move through early next week with scattered showers and cooler temperatures for several days, but models are just grabbing onto this possibility.

ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR DELTA

A few showers fell in the Delta over the last couple of days, but most areas remained dry. A few showers may move through this week, especially across the south. Heat will be widespread in the region when showers do not occur, increasing stress for soybeans and cotton.

HOT AND DRY FOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST

Soil moisture continues to decline in portions of the Pacific Northwest due to heat and a lack of rainfall recently, especially in Idaho. No significant showers are forecast for the next couple of weeks, putting crop conditions on more of a downward trajectory for the end of the season, especially for spring wheat.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES SEEING FORECAST CHANGES

A system is bringing moderate to heavy rain through southern portions of the Canadian Prairies, helping to reduce or eliminate the remaining drought. Models have just grabbed onto a stronger system for early next week that would bring much cooler temperatures to the region and another shot of significant rainfall. Overall, crops in the region are setup for to end the season well.

FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHERN BRAZIL WHEAT

Favorable weather continues for both remaining corn harvest and wheat development in Brazil. More showers are expected in the south for vegetative spring wheat early this week. While showers should dry up later in the week, soil moisture is in very good shape and temperatures will be well above normal, helping wheat develop faster.

SHOWERS COMING FOR ARGENTINA WHEAT

Waves of colder temperatures and limited showers have had a significantly negative impact on winter wheat establishment in southern Argentina this winter while the window for planting has largely closed. Dry conditions continue this week as temperatures increase, stressing the dry areas. Scattered showers are forecast to occur with a system next week and are going to be helpful should the forecast pan out.

FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN THE BLACK SEA

Scattered showers moved through the Black Sea Region around an upper-level low over the weekend. The showers continue at times through the week but will likely be spottier. Temperatures will continue to be milder so drier areas should not feel as much stress. Temperatures will increase next week though, and showers will turn isolated or absent, which could affect corn and sunflowers as they continue to go through reproductive stages of development.

HEATWAVE CONTINUES ACROSS EUROPE

A few showers went through eastern areas over the weekend, but most areas remained dry. A ridge is bringing intense, record-breaking heat across the continent this week. While the northern edge of it will remain active with a couple of storm systems moving through, showers will be limited. Areas that get missed will see more stress developing for spring grains and corn.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

John Baranick