Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Wetter conditions continuing in the northwestern Corn Belt but hot and dry conditions elsewhere, dry conditions in central Brazil, and a heat wave in Europe are the weather factors holding the market's attention Tuesday.

PLANTING WINDOWS BRIEFLY OPEN FOR MUCH OF MIDWEST

A front is stalled out in the northwest corner of the Midwest through much of the week, offering chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms. Heat and dryness to the south and east are likely to promote rapid planting progress. The front will move eastward this weekend into next week, cutting temperatures back and offering occasional showers. It is unclear if the upcoming spreading of showers will be enough to limit planting, but it could be a nuisance for some. More showers will be possible later next week.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS

Hot temperatures and occasional rain and thunderstorms will move through the Southern Plains throughout the course of the week. All areas will have chances for brief showers, including the west. Drought remains a mainstay in the southwest, which continues to have negative impacts for developing wheat. Showers this week will only have limited benefits.

COLD AND WET IN PACIFIC NORTHWEST

A cold trough and several disturbances within it will keep temperatures cooler and showers popping up through the weekend. Showers are unlikely to produce widespread issues for remaining planting or decrease drought in the region. Colder temperatures will limit wheat growth, however. More showers will be possible next week with another trough moving in.

WET WEATHER CONTINUES FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

The Northern Plains will be on the edge of warm and cold weather through the week, as systems will move through the region with scattered showers through Saturday before drying out. Limited planting is likely through the week. Showers will still be possible at times next week, but planting is more likely to increase anyway.

PLANTING WINDOWS OPEN IN DELTA

A frontal boundary will remain parked well to the west of the Delta this week, bringing in hot and dry conditions. This should promote additional spring planting. The frontal boundary will eventually move through the region this weekend, bringing in some showers. If the front gets held up in the region next week, we could see several more rounds of showers.

SOIL MOISTURE CRITICAL IN CENTRAL BRAZIL

Soil moisture continues to decline in central Brazil as corn continues to go through pollination and grain-fill with critical amounts of available moisture. Southern Brazil will see a couple of opportunities for some showers over the next week, which will be helpful for some of the crop, and keep soils from getting too dry overall. We will have to watch temperatures behind a system next week, as there could be some localized frosts in some areas.

DRYNESS NOT YET CONCERNING FOR ARGENTINA WHEAT

Dry weather will continue for most of Argentina throughout the week. Despite a couple of systems moving through, showers are likely to be limited to the far south wheat areas and northwestern corn and soybean areas. Showers are unlikely to add to the soil moisture profile for wheat development or hinder much of the corn and soybean harvest. Colder temperatures this weekend into next week could mean localized frosts again.

OCCASIONAL SHOWERS IN BLACK SEA

Conditions are favorable for winter wheat development and are fair for corn planting in the Black Sea region. A couple of storm systems moving through this week should add to soil moisture in some areas but will miss others as well. Overall, conditions are fair.

HEAT WAVE BUILDING IN WESTERN EUROPE

More showers are needed across northern Europe as they have turned drier recently. Shower activity will come through occasionally this week, but not consistently as needed. Scattered showers may make it to France and Italy while missing others. A two-week heat wave building into the continent will stress those areas that are drier for both reproductive winter crops and developing spring crops. Western areas will be on the receiving end of the hottest temperatures which look to occur next week.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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