DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

There is a trough moving through the Gulf of Mexico, another in Canada, and a larger one off the West Coast. The troughs in the Gulf and Canada will move east over the next few days while the one off the West Coast will intensify as it moves onshore and combines with the polar vortex.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

In the 6-10 day period, the vortex will send a couple of pieces of energy through the rest of the country late this week through next week.

The U.S. and European models are in fair agreement with the upper-level pattern, but develop each trough and disturbance a little differently. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Saturday will be below normal in the Northwest and above normal in the Southeast. That pattern will continue through into next week with some variation across the middle of the country. A system will move out of the West and through the Plains and Midwest over the weekend with scattered showers. The system should leave a front across the middle of the country that will remain active as another system or two forms along it next week.

John Baranick

DTN Ag Meteorologist

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH SUN...90 AT PALM BEACH GARDENS FL

LOW SUN...14 BELOW ZERO AT PETER SINKS UT

24 HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 6PM CT SUNDAY... SALEM OR 1.87 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

There is a trough moving through the Gulf of Mexico, another in Canada, and a larger one off the West Coast. The troughs in the Gulf and Canada will move east over the next few days while the one off the West Coast will intensify as it moves onshore and combines with the polar vortex. The vortex will send a couple of pieces of energy through the rest of the country late this week through next week.

The U.S. and European models are in fair agreement with the upper-level pattern, but develop each trough and disturbance a little differently. I will use a blend but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Saturday will be below normal in the Northwest and above normal in the Southeast. That pattern will continue through into next week with some variation across the middle of the country. A system will move out of the West and through the Plains and Midwest over the weekend with scattered showers. The system should leave a front across the middle of the country that will remain active as another system or two forms along it next week.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK): Isolated showers moved through over the weekend, with a small area of heavy snow along the South Dakota-North Dakota border on Friday. A system will move through with light to moderate snow over the north Monday-Tuesday. A more potent storm should move through late week with scattered showers as well. Cold air from the Arctic will spill into the region next week.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT) A stalled front brought scattered showers to southeastern areas Friday into Saturday with some localized flooding in eastern Oklahoma. Meanwhile, the west has remained dry with declining conditions for wheat and increasing drought. Despite an active pattern with systems moving through, chances for precipitation through the end of the year are low, especially in the west that needs it most.

MIDWEST (WINTER WHEAT): Scattered showers fell across southeastern areas over the weekend with some flooding in southern Missouri. An active pattern will bring a few storm systems through the region over the next 10 days.

Precipitation may be limited until a system goes through Friday into Saturday and another goes through next week.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST (WINTER WHEAT): Scattered showers went through over the weekend. An active upper-air pattern will produce periods of showers throughout the next 10 days, helping to increase moisture for dormant wheat.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers continued over central and northern areas over the weekend while southern areas were dry. A few isolated showers will move through southern areas early this week but dryness returns and amounts are forecast to be low. Conditions for corn and soybeans will continue to decline in the south. Conditions for reproductive to filling soybeans in central and northern areas continue to be very favorable.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): A few isolated showers developed over southern areas this weekend and will spread northward for the next few days. Amounts and coverage will be limited, however, and dryness is likely to settle in across the country going through the middle of next week outside of a couple of isolated showers over eastern areas this weekend. Overall crop conditions are expected to decline.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): Isolated showers fell across eastern areas this weekend, with drier conditions favoring winter wheat development across the south. A system will bring some showers to Spain early this week and then eventually through the rest of the continent later in the week. The pattern will turn active again this weekend through next week.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/COTTON/SORGHUM): Some isolated showers fell across eastern areas this weekend, but most areas saw good harvest weather for wheat and canola. More isolated showers will develop throughout the week but for the most part are not concerning. Conditions are good for developing cotton and sorghum as well.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers north, heavy rain south. Temperatures near to above normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry Monday. Scattered showers north Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday.

Isolated showers north Thursday. Scattered showers Friday. Temperatures near to above normal through Wednesday, above normal Thursday-Friday.

East: Mostly dry Monday. Scattered showers north Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday.

Isolated showers north Thursday. Scattered showers Friday. Temperatures near to above normal through Thursday, above normal Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday-Tuesday.

Mostly dry Wednesday. Temperatures above normal Saturday-Sunday, near to above normal Monday-Wednesday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers southeast. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers southeast Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday-Friday.

Temperatures near to above normal Monday-Tuesday, above normal Wednesday-Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Saturday-Monday. Isolated showers Tuesday.

Mostly dry Wednesday. Temperatures above normal Saturday-Monday, near to below normal northwest and above normal southeast Tuesday-Wednesday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers through Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday.

Temperatures near to above normal through Wednesday, near normal Thursday-Friday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near normal through Friday.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers Monday-Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Thursday.

Isolated showers east Friday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday.

La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers Monday-Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Thursday.

Isolated showers east Friday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday.

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