Commodities Market Impact Weather

Strong Mid-Late Week System

John Baranick
By  John Baranick , DTN Meteorologist

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A large storm that will move through the United States and mostly favorable conditions in South America are the weather factors holding the market's attention Monday.

STORM SYSTEM COMING TO MIDWEST

Warm and dry conditions in the Midwest during the weekend helped soils to drain and favored the remaining harvest. There will be some isolated showers that move through the region late Monday and Tuesday. Mostly light showers are expected but there could be a string of moderate showers across northern Indiana and Ohio that could cause some localized issues. But the real storm comes a day later as widespread showers will move through the region Wednesday and Thursday. Snow is likely to wrap around the backside of the system around Minnesota with potential accumulation that could affect the remaining corn harvest. Winds will also be an issue with the system and some showers may continue into the weekend near the Great Lakes.

SOUTHERN PLAINS SEEING RAIN IN THE EAST

Hot and dry conditions in the Southern Plains during the weekend continued to draw moisture out of the soil and negatively affected winter wheat establishment in the west. A system will move through on Wednesday, bringing scattered showers through, but mostly to eastern areas while western areas remain dry. Strong winds may also develop, helping to further dry out soils. There is a small chance for showers across western areas late in the week, but overall conditions continue to be unfavorable for winter wheat.

POTENTIAL BLIZZARD FOR NORTHERN PLAINS LATE WEEK

A system will move through the Northern Plains Wednesday mostly with scattered moderate rain. The system should wrap up over Minnesota on Thursday, then bring snow to the region Thursday night into Friday. There is still uncertainty with this system. Strong winds may also coincide with the snow, causing blizzard conditions and significantly affecting the remaining corn harvest.

BRIEF CHANCE FOR RAIN IN DELTA

Warm and dry conditions in the Delta during the weekend favored harvest. A system will bring scattered showers through the area Wednesday night into Thursday, benefiting winter wheat establishment but could affect the remaining harvest.

DRY THEN WET FOR SOUTHEAST

Scattered showers moved through portions of the Southeast Friday into Saturday and were heavy in spots, affecting cotton harvest. Dry weather is expected for the next few days but a front will slowly move through late this week with scattered showers possibly into the weekend that could affect the harvest some more.

WAVES OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR PNW

Some showers moved through the Pacific Northwest during the weekend but mostly occurred in the mountains. Several waves will move through during the next week, each bringing potential for helpful showers. But most areas are likely to only see light precipitation and lower temperatures through the week will also slow growth on wheat.

BRIEF SHOWERS FOR BLACK SEA

Some showers went through Ukraine and northern Russia during the weekend, but most areas remained unfavorably dry. A front moving through the region will be somewhat active early this week with some showers, but dryness will follow for the rest of the week. The incoming rainfall will be somewhat helpful but likely not enough before wheat goes dormant.

SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS BRAZIL

Daily scattered showers will continue across central Brazil for the next week. Dryness over Rio Grande do Sul is expected this week as it is the only area with detrimental conditions for the foreseeable future. The dryness will help with the remaining wheat harvest. But scattered showers are likely to move through southern areas during the coming weekend.

ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR ARGENTINA THIS WEEK

A front moved through Argentina late last week and put an end to the good rainfall pattern. However, isolated showers will still pop up through the week, especially for the drier western areas. A system should push through the country during the weekend and bring widespread scattered showers, which would be favorable for corn and soybean planting and early growth.

WET HARVEST CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN AUSTRALIA

Scattered showers moved through Australia during the weekend, maintaining mostly good moisture supplies for summer cotton and sorghum, but putting some pressure on wheat and canola harvest. A couple more systems moving through this week are likely to create more harvest and some quality issues.

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Get a full rundown on the 2022 outlook for weather affecting U.S. and international crop areas during the DTN Ag Summit, Dec. 5-7, in Chicago. Visit www.dtn.com/agsummit for more details about the summit and to register. Register before Nov. 26 for the early bird rate.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

John Baranick