DTN Ag Weather Brief

DTN Ag Weather Brief

John Baranick
By  John Baranick , DTN Meteorologist
NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...97 AT ZAPATA TX AND FALCON LAKE TX

LOW WED...3 BELOW ZERO AT MACKAY ID

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7PM WEDNESDAY...DES MOINES IA 1.43 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

There is a strong ridge in eastern Canada down through the eastern U.S., a portion of the western trough moving into central Canada, and a reinforcing trough deepening in the West. The western trough will push east through the country through this weekend while a ridge will build in behind it into next week. One trough will move through Canada and the northern U.S. early-to-mid next week in the midst of the ridge, deepening across the East late next week while the ridge remains over central portions of the country and another trough builds off the West Coast.

The U.S. and European models are in fair agreement through the middle of next week but start to diverge with the pattern late next week and weekend. I will use a blend but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Tuesday will be near to above normal for most of the country and near to below normal in the Northern Plains and northern Rockies. Below normal anomalies may follow a weak system as it crosses the U.S. next week and weekend but will rise across the Rockies and eventually the Plains. A system will move through the U.S. next week and could bring a few showers across the Corn Belt around midweek. Another piece of energy could bring showers to southern areas late week and weekend.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): A strong system brought widespread moderate to heavy rainfall across the Dakotas with snow in eastern Montana, Wyoming and the far western Dakotas as well. Strong winds Wednesday eclipsed 60 mph in a few spots, but most areas saw wind gusts in the 35 to 45 mph range. Lower temperatures settling in will only stick around for a couple of days before higher temperatures come back into the region over the weekend. Temperatures could go back below normal in the middle of next week, but not to any great extent. It may take a while for soils to recover and allow equipment back into the fields to continue harvest.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A cold front has gotten stuck across southeastern areas where some heavy rainfall and flooding has occurred. That continues through Thursday before a system pushes the front eastward on Friday. Rainfall has been fairly good for winter wheat areas except for these areas of flooding from central Texas to southern Missouri.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Scattered showers and thunderstorms moved through on Wednesday and a front to the week's system is going to slow down and stall just north of the Ohio River through Friday before a system moves along it and sweeps precipitation out of the region. More moderate rain will be possible across the southern half of the region until it does. Widespread moderate rain recently has caused delays for corn and soybean harvest for a few days while soils drain out.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON/WINTER WHEAT): A front will bring showers on Friday that could cause some delays in the cotton and soybean harvest but provide good moisture for winter wheat establishment. Otherwise, conditions are mostly favorable for harvest and winter wheat establishment.

SOUTHEAST (COTTON/LIVESTOCK): Dry weather continues for the next few days, favoring drying soils and harvest. Some showers will move through with a front on Saturday, but the favorable conditions will continue.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST (WINTER WHEAT): Scattered showers moved through Idaho this week, but Washington and Oregon were left mostly dry. Lower temperatures are also expected for most of the week before rising this weekend. Overall, conditions are still limiting for winter wheat establishment. A system that comes through Sunday into Monday may provide better precipitation, but that is not guaranteed.

BRAZIL (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers continue for the next week over central areas and over southern areas through early next week, overall good for full-season corn and soybean planting and establishment. Some drier weather would actually be favorable for maturing and harvest of winter wheat, which look to come next week.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): There remains some rather dry spots in portions of the country that could use more moisture for corn and soybean planting, even with scattered showers that moved through on Wednesday. Winter wheat areas are still doing alright but with soil moisture drying up here as well. A system will bring more scattered showers Thursday into Friday, but the country will go fairly dry afterward with the next best chance for rain coming at the end of next week.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): One system is leaving southeastern areas, but another will bring some isolated showers to northeastern areas of the continent for the next couple of days, but most areas will remain dry through the weekend. Overall, conditions continue to be favorable for winter wheat planting and establishment and are improving for harvest as well.

UKRAINE/SOUTHWEST RUSSIA (WHEAT/CORN/SUNFLOWERS): A system moved through Ukraine and northwest Russia with scattered showers Wednesday, but southwestern Russia does not see much in terms of coverage or amounts where it is needed more. Only small, isolated chances for showers continue through next week. Time is running out before cold weather settles in for the year and wheat goes dormant.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/COTTON/SORGHUM): A system with more widespread showers is moving through eastern areas for the next couple of days, helping to increase moisture for some of the drier areas of the country. Mostly favorable conditions continue for reproductive to filling winter wheat and canola along with providing beneficial soil moisture for cotton and sorghum planting.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WHEAT/CANOLA): Conditions have been mostly favorable for corn and soybeans this season. Occasional showers on the North China Plain are prepping soils as winter wheat and canola planting increases.

INDIA (COTTON/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Monsoon showers are waning over central India, as is typical for the monsoon to end over the region. They may come back this weekend into early next week, but that will only be temporary. Moisture should be good for the rest of filling cotton and soybeans.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures above to well above normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures well above normal.

Forecast:

West: Scattered showers south Thursday and Friday. Mostly dry Saturday through Monday. Temperatures near to above normal Thursday, near normal Friday, near to below normal Saturday, near to above normal Sunday and Monday.

East: Scattered showers through early Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday and Monday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Friday, near to above normal Saturday through Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday through Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday and Wednesday, near normal Thursday through Saturday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers southeast. Temperatures near to below normal west and above normal east.

Forecast: Scattered showers south Thursday-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday through Monday. Temperatures near to below normal west and near to above normal east Thursday, near to below normal Friday and Saturday, near to above normal Sunday and Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday through Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday through Friday, near to above normal Saturday.

Mississippi Delta (soybeans/cotton)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures well above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers Thursday and Friday. Mostly dry Saturday through Monday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Friday, near to below normal Saturday through Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Tuesday and Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday and Saturday. Temperatures near normal Tuesday through Saturday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday, near to below normal Saturday, below normal Sunday and Monday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures near normal through Saturday, near to below normal Sunday and Monday.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday through Monday. Temperatures near to below normal Thursday, below normal Friday through Monday.

La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday through Monday. Temperatures near to below normal Thursday, below normal Friday through Monday.

John Baranick