DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

There is a ridge in the eastern U.S. and Canada, a trough in central Canada, and another developing off the coast of British Columbia. The parade of troughs will continue to move through North America through next week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

In the 6-10 day period, the parade of troughs will continue across North America with a ridge possibly taking shape in the West next weekend.

The U.S. and European models have the same sort of pattern but with distinct differences in how to develop systems. I will favor the European with differences.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Wednesday will be near to above normal in the West and East with cooler conditions in the Central U.S. A warming trend is expected through next weekend. A system will move continue through eastern areas of the country late next week with scattered showers and potential for heavy rain. Some showers will be possible in the Great Lakes next weekend.

John Baranick

DTN Ag Meteorologist

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...108 AT CIBOLA AZ, YUMA AZ, BLYTHE CA, AND WINTERHAVEN CA

LOW THU...23 AT PETER SINKS UT AND STANLEY ID

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7PM THURSDAY...JACKSONVILLE FL 2.78 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

There is a ridge in the eastern U.S. and Canada, a trough in central Canada, and another developing off the coast of British Columbia. The parade of troughs will continue to move through North America through next week with a ridge possibly taking shape in the west next weekend.

The U.S. and European models have the same sort of pattern but with distinct differences in how to develop systems. I will favor the European with differences.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Wednesday will be near to above normal in the west and east with cooler conditions in the Central U.S. A warming trend is expected through next weekend. A system will move continue through eastern areas of the country late next week with scattered showers and potential for heavy rain. Some showers will be possible in the Great Lakes next weekend.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system will bring showers through the region early next week and could be on the heavier side, but that is not certain yet. Temperatures mostly above normal should favor maturing crops and harvest, unless the heavy rain does indeed occur.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Some isolated showers will be possible through the next week, but most areas should stay dry while temperatures remain above normal. A system early next week could bring some more widespread showers to the region but that is not certain yet. This will favor maturing corn and soybeans and harvest and deplete soil moisture for winter wheat establishment unless the heavier showers materialize.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Isolated to occasionally scattered showers will continue over the next week as a couple of systems move through, while temperatures will continue to be above normal. This will favor maturing corn and soybeans and early harvest. A system early-to-mid next week could bring some more widespread showers to the region but that is not certain yet. Soil moisture is still favorable for winter wheat planting and establishment as well but is declining.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): Nicholas and its remnants brought some heavier rains to the southern end of the region earlier this week, which may have caused damage to maturing cotton and soybeans. Otherwise, isolated showers will be possible through the next week.

SOUTHEAST (COTTON/LIVESTOCK): Nicholas and its remnants will continue to spread moderate showers across the region for the next couple of days, which may negatively impact maturing cotton. Otherwise, isolated showers over the next week will be possible.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST (WINTER WHEAT): Drought continues to have a tight grip on the region. Winter wheat establishment is unlikely to find much success until more favorable moisture develops. A system moving through this weekend could bring much needed rainfall. But dryness looks to come back afterward.

BRAZIL (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Southern states will stay active into next week as a front remains stalled. This will favor winter wheat and recharge soil moisture for corn and soybeans. Central states are still awaiting the start of the wet season, which looks to be delayed. Soybean planting restrictions lifted this week but will need more moisture for seed-to-soil contact in these central areas before planting picks up. Models are suggesting it will stay relatively dry through the end of September with only isolated showers in Mato Grosso at times.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Dry conditions are expected for the next week with only some isolated showers early next week. Winter wheat has gotten some moisture lately but could use more as it gets further into reproduction. More moisture is needed for corn and soybean planting as well.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): A system continues to slowly move through the continent this week with scattered showers. Drier conditions would be favorable for maturing and harvest of crops to the north, but the showers will benefit winter wheat planting and establishment, especially over the south where it has been drier. Another system could bring rainfall to western areas this weekend into early next week as well.

UKRAINE/SOUTHWEST RUSSIA (WHEAT/CORN/SUNFLOWERS): Dry weather this week has favored maturing and harvest of summer crops, but the region could use more moisture for winter wheat planting and establishment. This is especially true across Russia, where it has been overly dry this summer. Some showers will move through over the weekend and into next week, which could help with that. Temperatures will cool significantly next week, which will help to hold on to some of the soil moisture.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Favorable conditions continue for reproductive winter wheat and canola in most areas. Showers would still be beneficial in northern New South Wales and Queensland, but irrigation supplies are adequate.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Outside of some flooding, which may have occurred in July, conditions have been mostly favorable for corn and soybeans this season. Scattered showers in northeast areas will add to soil moisture but will not help crops as they mature. Occasional showers on the North China Plain are prepping soils for winter wheat and canola planting.

INDIA (COTTON/SOYBEANS): Monsoon showers moved back into central cotton and soybean areas, benefiting soil moisture for some areas that have seen erratic rainfall this year. Showers continue to be in a more sporadic nature through the next week.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers north. Temperatures above to well above normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers Friday. Mostly dry Saturday and Sunday. Scattered showers Monday-Tuesday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Monday, near to above normal Tuesday.

East: Isolated showers Friday and Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Isolated showers Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures above normal through Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday and Friday. Isolated showers Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal Wednesday and Thursday, near normal Friday through Sunday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers north. Temperatures above to well above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers Friday. Mostly dry Saturday and Sunday. Scattered showers Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Monday, near to below normal Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Wednesday through Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday through Sunday.

Mississippi Delta (soybeans/cotton)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers through Tuesday. Temperatures above normal through Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Wednesday through Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal Wednesday through Sunday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Tuesday. Temperatures near normal Friday, above normal Saturday through Monday, near to below normal Tuesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated showers southwest. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal through Tuesday.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Saturday. Isolated showers Sunday. Mostly dry Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday, near to below normal Monday and Tuesday.

La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Saturday. Isolated showers Sunday. Mostly dry Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday, near to below normal Monday and Tuesday.

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