DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...120 AT DEATH VALLEY CA

LOW WED...30 AT BIG PINEY WY

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7PM WEDNESDAY...ASHEVILLE NC 1.86 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

There is a trough in the Gulf of Alaska, a firm ridge across the West, a trough in the middle of the country, and a ridge off the East Coast. The central trough will continue eastward through Friday, leaving a piece of itself to roam the South and Southeast next week. The trough in the Gulf of Alaska will try to push the western ridge out of the way this weekend but is not expected to succeed as the ridge spreads northeast for next week. A disturbance will go over the top of the ridge and create a trough in the Northeast mid-to-late next week. The Pacific trough will flatten the northern extent of the ridge next weekend as it moves across Canada, but it will continue across the U.S.

The U.S. and European models are in general agreement, but I will favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Tuesday will be near to below normal across the Central and Southern Plains to the Southeast with above normal temperatures elsewhere. This pattern will generally continue next week with the highest temperatures in the Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies. A front will stall out in near the Gulf Coast next week with scattered showers continuing. Some isolated showers will be possible in the expanding heat in the Central and Northern Plains as well.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/SPRING WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers Tuesday night into Wednesday were disappointing and the region will be much drier over the next week. Isolated showers may develop at times but will be unlikely to have a large impact on developing to reproductive corn and soybeans. Heat will build back into the region next week and several days near 100 F will continue to stress crops.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WINTER WHEAT/LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system will continue to bring scattered showers through Friday as a front slips south. The region could stay active through Monday, which would benefit developing to reproductive corn and soybeans outside of further severe risks. Remaining winter wheat harvest will have to dodge the rain or continue to wait.

MIDWEST (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Heavy rainfall across northern areas on Wednesday missed some key areas of western Minnesota where drought likely intensified over the last week. But the rainfall was very welcome across northern Iowa, southern Minnesota, and Wisconsin, which helped to ease drought in these areas. The system will move slowly south over the next several days, continuing to bring moderate to heavy rain across the region. The rain will be helpful overall, but some of the wetter spots in northern Missouri and Illinois could use some dryness. After this system moves through, drier conditions will develop for next week. This may wipe out any benefit from the rainfall over the northwest but will benefit the saturated soils across the south and east.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): After a dry next couple of days, more showers will develop as a front sags into the area this weekend into next week. Conditions are mostly favorable for developing to reproductive cotton and soybeans.

SOUTHEAST (COTTON/LIVESTOCK): Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to produce favorable conditions for developing to reproductive cotton for the next week.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): Crop conditions continue to deteriorate as heat and dryness continue to take their toll on crops. A significant heat wave will build back into the region over the next couple of days and continue through next week, accelerating crop growth even further. There will be some isolated shower activity that moves through, but most areas are likely to miss out, creating more stress outside of northwest Alberta.

BRAZIL (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): Dry weather continues to stress filling corn, which is still a large portion of the crop still in the field. Winter wheat has fared better but could use more rainfall. A front will bring showers to southern areas through the weekend, which could offer limited benefit to corn that is still further behind developmentally. There is another chance for frosts Sunday through Tuesday mornings that could have more detrimental effects on corn across the south.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT): Dryness continues for most areas over the next week. Even with limited rainfall recently, soil moisture continues to be favorable for most of the winter wheat areas.

EUROPE (SPRING WHEAT/CORN): A system that has brought scattered showers to much of the continent this week will stall over eastern areas into next week. This has delayed winter crop harvest but will be highly beneficial for developing to reproductive crops over eastern areas which have been the only spots lacking adequate precipitation for spring-sewn crops this season. Conditions are highly favorable for most of the rest of the continent.

UKRAINE/SOUTHWEST RUSSIA (WHEAT/CORN/SUNFLOWERS): An overall hot and dry forecast is expected through the weekend. This could cause stress for some of the locally drier areas of the region, though many still have plenty of soil moisture to cope with the heat. The Volga Valley region of Russia will likely have the hardest time dealing with the heat. Showers and a break from the heat is expected to come next week.

CENTRAL RUSSIA/KAZAKHSTAN (SPRING WHEAT/GRAINS): Scattered showers across eastern areas of the region this week are turning isolated as an upper-level low spins north out of the main growing regions in the next day or two. Conditions in this half of the region are much better than the west, where dryness and heat have taken a toll on developing to reproductive small grains.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Periods of showers are maintaining overall favorable conditions for vegetative winter wheat and canola in most areas.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Periods of widespread showers and relatively stable temperatures continue favoring developing corn and soybeans.

INDIA (COTTON/SOYBEANS): Monsoon showers have been a little disappointing in the northwestern quarter of the country thus far but are in the area. Some cotton areas are doing better than others due to the discrepancy. Showers have been much more consistent and heavier across the east and south for soybeans. This pattern likely continues over the coming week.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers north. Temperatures near normal.

East: Scattered showers northwest. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast:

West: Scattered showers south Thursday and Friday. Mostly dry Saturday through Monday. Temperatures near to below normal through Sunday, near to above normal north and near to below normal south Monday.

East: Scattered showers through Saturday, south Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Temperatures near to above normal Thursday, near to below normal Friday through Sunday, near to above normal Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Tuesday through Thursday. Isolated showers east Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal north and near to below normal south Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday through Saturday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Friday. Isolated showers Saturday through Monday. Temperatures near to below normal through Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Tuesday through Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday through Thursday, near to above normal north and near to below normal south Friday and Saturday.

Mississippi Delta (soybeans/cotton)

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers Thursday. Scattered showers Friday through Monday. Temperatures near normal through Sunday, near to below normal Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Scattered showers Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday through Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday through Thursday, near normal Friday and Saturday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers south. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers north Thursday-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday through Monday. Temperatures above normal Thursday, near to below normal Friday and Saturday, below to well below normal Sunday and Monday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers MGDS through Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday, above normal north and below normal south Sunday, near normal north and well below normal south Monday.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Scattered showers north. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Thursday and Friday. Isolated showers east Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday and Monday. Temperatures near to below normal through Monday.

La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Thursday and Friday. Isolated showers east Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday and Monday. Temperatures near to below normal through Monday.

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