Commodities Market Impact Weather

Late-Arriving Midwest Moisture

Bryce Anderson
By  Bryce Anderson , DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist
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OMAHA (DTN) -- A wetter and cooler pattern over the central United States and ongoing dry conditions in central Brazil are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Tuesday.

COOLER AND WETTER PATTERN

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for much cooler conditions over the Plains and Midwest during the middle of the week. This includes a threat of freezing in the far northern sector, possibly crimping some corn and soybeans ahead of maturity. The notably cooler pattern will be accompanied by periods of rain. Rain will be too late to benefit drought-stressed crops.

SOUTHERN PLAINS RAIN CHANCE

In the Southern Plains, a strong system will bring showers and thunderstorms and much lower temperatures during this week. Rain verification will be closely tracked for possible improvement in soil moisture for winter wheat planting.

COLD IN NORTHERN PLAINS

Northern Plains crop areas have seen moderate showers and sharply falling temperatures during the last couple of days. Some snow has also occurred near the Rockies with the system. The well-below-normal temperatures will lead to frosts and freezes through Wednesday morning, ending the fill period on corn about two to three weeks early in some areas.

DRY FOR DELTA HARVEST

The Delta has very little rainfall expected this week. Drier conditions will favor harvest progress.

ISOLATED SOUTHEAST SHOWERS

The Southeast has occasional isolated showers over the weekend but must areas were dry. There is still favorable soil moisture for filling crops. Isolated to scattered showers will increase in coverage throughout the week, especially as the upper level low moves off to the north this weekend.

COLD PRAIRIES TREND

The Canadian Prairies had scattered showers across the west along with windy conditions noted over the weekend. A little bit of snow fell against the Rockies but did not significantly accumulate. Temperatures have fallen below freezing Monday morning across the north and are likely to be more widespread Tuesday and perhaps Wednesday morning. This could lead to any immature filling crops halting for the season, well-ahead of normal. Otherwise, little precipitation for the rest of this week will favor spring wheat harvest.

STILL DRY IN CENTRAL BRAZIL

Across Brazil's crop areas, scattered showers continued to fall over Rio Grande do Sul over the long weekend. More periods of showers will continue in this region through the coming weekend. Full-season corn is being planted in the south, where soil moisture is looking good for germination. Models continue to suggest the wet season may be late this spring, delaying soybean planting in the central and north areas.

SCATTERED ARGENTINA RAINFALL

Scattered showers fell across the north and far south Argentina crop areas during the weekend, boosting soil moisture in those areas. Temperatures did fall below freezing in the south, however, which may happen again at the end of the week and into the weekend. Several disturbances are lining up for the region this week. Showers will be concentrated over the far north and the east, where soil moisture is still mostly favorable, leaving much of the interior dry and needing rainfall.

VARIABLE AUSTRALIA PRECIPITATION

Queensland is falling short on rainfall to start the spring and could use more. Some showers fell across Western Australia and portions of New South Wales, but very little occurred elsewhere. Some scattered showers will drift north over the next several days through Queensland, which will benefit developing to reproductive wheat and rapeseed, but more would be welcome.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @BAndersonDTN

Bryce Anderson

Bryce Anderson
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