DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...117 AT DEATH VALLEY CA

LOW THU...34 AT FORT ROCK OR

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 8PM THURSDAY...COLUMBIA SC 1.40 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

A trough is moving out of the Great Lakes, being replaced briefly by a new one for this weekend. The trough will move northeast through early next week being replaced by a large ridge. This weekend, a new trough forming in the west will make for a trough-west and ridge-east pattern which looks to be maintained through next week with weakening of the western trough late next week.

The U.S. and European models are in fair agreement but differ on how to develop the storm system for next week. I will use the European ensembles.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Wednesday will be near to above normal east of the Rockies and near to below normal west of the Rockies.

Temperatures will continue in this pattern through next week with the cool anomaly washing away by next weekend. A system pulls into the Canadian Prairies late next week and a lingering front will produce periods of showers for the Northern Plains through the Midwest. Another system may move across southern Canada with showers extending into the far northern portions of the country next weekend. Periods of showers will continue across the Deep South as moisture from the Gulf continues to move into the region.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (SPRING WHEAT/CORN): Scattered showers fell over the region Thursday, and even over the western Dakotas, which have been rather dry recently. Despite the showers, these areas are seeing stress to developing crops. Another storm brings several periods of scattered showers to the region next week.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Widespread moderate showers are expected Friday and Saturday. These showers will likely delay harvest activities again. Periods of isolated to scattered showers will continue next week as a system stays off the west, further delaying harvest but bringing good moisture for summer crops.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS/WHEAT): Recent rainfall was welcome after dry conditions had set up over most areas, especially in the east. The recent showers have put a substantial dent into the deficits, but they still remain. More widespread moderate to heavy rainfall is expected Friday through the weekend to keep up with moisture demand from developing crops. Scattered showers are likely to continue over western areas next week with some concern about returning dryness in the east.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): Scattered showers will remain in the area through next week and improve or maintain good crop conditions and prospects.

SOUTHEAST (COTTON): Periods of isolated to scattered showers will continue into next week, typical of this time of year. This should maintain good prospects on cotton so far this season.

BRAZIL (CORN/COTTON/WHEAT): The growing season for corn and cotton is just about over for most of the region and the continued dry conditions in the central and northern areas will have less of an impact going forward. Most of the wheat areas in the south are in good shape, as showers will lift north through the region Friday. The front to the system will stall from Mato Grosso do Sul to Parana or Sao Paulo, providing additional moisture for filling corn and soybeans and developing wheat this weekend. Another system moves through southern areas with additional moderate rainfall early next week.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT): Scattered showers occurred in and around Uruguay but have been absent elsewhere in the country. Concern over soil moisture deficits for the interior central and southern growing areas continues, as does stress on developing winter wheat. Mostly dry weather is expected through the weekend with a system bringing showers early next week, but mainly for eastern areas.

Cold air pouring in through the weekend may also cause frosts and freezes for portions of the region, which did occur Friday morning.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/RAPESEED/CORN): Heat and dryness have built into the northwestern sections of the continent this week, stressing developing summer crops and filling winter wheat, though recent showers should have provided adequate soil moisture. Showers over the eastern half of the continent continue to provide adequate to surplus moisture for developing summer crops. Another storm system will spread showers over western areas Friday and Saturday while the heat will stick around into the weekend before falling back toward normal.

A cutoff low will continue to provide showers in the east. Areas that are missed will see temperatures rise above normal and with the adequate soil moisture should foster growth.

UKRAINE/WEST RUSSIA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Dryness settles in to finish out the week. We are starting to get past the point where heat is a detriment on wheat, but above normal temperatures with dry weather through the weekend could be stressful to some of the drier areas for summer corn and sunflowers. Showers will move through the region again Sunday through early next week.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT): Recent moderate showers in eastern areas has been beneficial as the area has been rather dry. Another storm system will be slow to develop this weekend into next week, providing additional showers to the drier southeastern areas.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT): Favorable growing conditions continue for much of the wheat belt. Showers would be more welcome over Queensland, which has missed out on the more consistent activity recently, though soil moisture and irrigation continue to be adequate.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/RAPESEED/CORN/SOYBEANS): Conditions continue to be favorable for crops in China. Showers fell in the northeast for corn and soybean growth. Drier weather followed recent shower activity over the central areas for wheat and rapeseed harvest activities. And moderate showers in the south continued to be beneficial for developing sugarcane and rice.

INDIA (WINTER WHEAT/RAPESEED/RICE/COTTON): Monsoon moisture continues to spread across the country, and even made it up into northwest India, delaying harvesting of winter wheat and rapeseed. Overall the monsoon has been on normal pace and provided very beneficial moisture to most of the crops in the region.

An outbreak of locusts continues in western India. Extensive damage has been reported for the cotton and winter wheat crops. The swarm is starting to devastate newly planted summer crops, including cotton.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybean and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers northwest. Temperatures near to below normal.

East: Isolated showers east. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast:

West: Scattered moderate showers Friday, south Saturday-Sunday. Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal Friday-Sunday, above normal Monday-Tuesday.

East: Scattered showers Friday, south Saturday-Sunday. Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Tuesday, mostly west. Temperatures near to above normal Friday-Sunday, above normal Monday-Tuesday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Thursday, mostly west. Isolated showers west Friday. Isolated showers north Saturday-Sunday.

Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday-Sunday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers north and west. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Scattered moderate showers Friday-Saturday. Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Tuesday, mostly east. Temperatures near to above normal Friday, near normal Saturday, near to above normal Sunday-Tuesday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Friday. Isolated showers Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday-Sunday.

Mississippi Delta (soybeans and cotton)

Summary: Scattered showers south. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers Friday-Saturday. Isolated showers Sunday-Tuesday.

Temperatures near normal Friday-Saturday, near to above normal Sunday-Tuesday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Sunday.

Temperatures near normal Wednesday-Sunday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Moderate to heavy showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers north Friday-Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Scattered moderate showers Monday-Tuesday. Temperatures near normal north and below normal south Friday, below normal Saturday-Sunday, near normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers south. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers south Friday-Saturday. Isolated showers south Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Scattered showers south Tuesday night. Temperatures above normal north and near normal south Friday, above normal north and below normal south Saturday, above normal north and near normal south Sunday, above normal Monday-Tuesday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

DTN Ag Meteorologist

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