Commodities Market Impact Weather

OMAHA (DTN) -- A sharp cold wave during the next five days in the central U.S. and rain prospects in southern Brazil and the Black Sea region are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Thursday.

COLD FOR MIDWEST

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for moderate late-week rain in the southern Midwest. A colder temperature pattern will then spread throughout the region. Temperatures may fall below freezing several nights into early next week. This will need to be monitored for frost on recently emerging crops and developing wheat. The forecast could bring fieldwork and planting delays and necessitate replanting if the damage is too severe.

SOUTHERN PLAINS FREEZE CHANCE

In the Southern Plains, drought conditions in western areas have been stressful to winter wheat. Scattered rainfall Thursday offers very little easing of dryness. Following the showers, a cold pattern is forecast through the next five days. Below-freezing temperatures may cause a concern for developing to reproductive wheat in Nebraska. Kansas wheat areas may have some scattered frost as well. The cold could be damaging to newly planted row crops and could force some replanting.

NORTHERN PLAINS FREEZE THREAT

Northern Plains areas have moderate rain forecast Thursday, followed by cold air through most of the next seven days. Temperatures may go below freezing and will need to be monitored. Another round of rain is indicated through the seven- to 10-day period. This combination could bring fieldwork and planting delays. Acreage loss to prevented planting is possible.

SHORT-TERM DELTA SHOWERS

The Delta has a few showers ahead in the next two days. The remainder of the seven- to 10-day period brings favorable conditions for fieldwork and planting. Developing crops should find generally favorable weather for development. However, temperatures will fall well below normal this weekend into early next week and slow growth.

RAIN FORMS IN BLACK SEA REGION

Across the Black Sea region, periods of moderate scattered showers continue through Friday in Ukraine and through the weekend in Russia, easing recent dryness. One to 2 inches and locally more in Russia this week could reverse much of the dryness concerns in the region.

USEFUL EUROPE RAIN

Crop areas of Europe have seen recent rains ease dryness. Additional beneficial showers move through over the weekend into early next week, though temperatures will go below normal for a few days. Developing to reproductive wheat and rapeseed to the south continue to see favorable conditions.

SOUTHERN BRAZIL RAIN CHANCE

Rain chances are increasing in southern Brazil over the next week. This prospect is important for safrinha corn moisture. Central areas have lighter rain ahead, which will likely not receive enough rainfall to ease recent dryness in Goias and Minas Gerais.

DRY ARGENTINA PATTERN

Argentina crop areas will be dry through the next several days. The drier trend benefits harvest; however, recent dryness has been unfavorable for river transport of commodities.

FAVORABLE AUSTRALIA MOISTURE

Australia winter wheat planting activities will continue to increase over the course of the next week. Soil moisture is adequate and was boosted by a system bringing moderate to heavy rain in the east last week.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @BAndersonDTN

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