Commodities Market Impact Weather

Strong Storm System Early Next Week for Midwest

Elaine Shein
By  Elaine Shein , Associate Managing Editor
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OMAHA (DTN) -- Beneficial moisture chances for Argentina and southern Brazil and heavy precipitation for early next week in the Midwest are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Friday.

STRONG SYSTEM NEXT WEEK IN MIDWEST

The DTN Ag Weather forecast calls for a brief drier period through the weekend for most areas. Another strong system moves through early next week with heavy snow over the north and west and heavy rain toward the Ohio River. Saturated soils remain a concern.

COLD IN SOUTHERN PLAINS

In the central and Southern Plains, it will be mostly dry through the weekend. A system will spread some snowfall over portions of Nebraska and Kansas and maybe some showers and thunderstorms over far eastern Oklahoma and Texas, but miss the drier areas to the southwest that need additional moisture. Temperatures will be below to well-below normal behind the system, but should not damage crops or overly stress livestock.

VARIABLE TEMPERATURES FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

For the Northern Plains, temperatures are rebounding Friday but will fall back below normal late this weekend through the middle of next week, stressing livestock. Temperatures will rise back above normal toward the end of next week.

SOUTHERN BRAZIL SHOWERS NEXT WEEK

Brazil has a good chance for more persistent showers in the southern growing areas Friday through early next week to ease some dryness. Continued periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected over the rest of the growing areas, though northeastern areas continue to fall behind in needed rainfall. Crop damage and reduced production is expected in this area. Otherwise, there is little delay in the continued harvest of soybeans and planting of cotton and safrinha (second crop) corn as showers are spotty enough to work around.

BENEFICIAL ARGENTINA RAIN

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continued Wednesday into Thursday in Argentina, benefiting developing to reproductive corn and soybeans. Another good shot comes early next week. If the showers are more isolated than expected, concern over dryness will return.

WARM FOR BLACK SEA REGION

Russia and Ukraine will have above-normal conditions for the next seven to 10 days. Otherwise the snow that fell last week and the showers this week have boosted soil moisture in the area.

BENEFICIAL SOUTH AFRICA TREND

South Africa's conditions will be drier through the weekend in the major crop areas, but showers look to come back by early next week. No significant concerns are expected for crops.

NORTHWEST AFRICA NEEDS MORE RAIN

In northwest Africa, above-normal weather and a lack of showers during the last two weeks have stressed developing to reproductive wheat for most of the region. With little prospect for showers in the next week or two, damage to the crop is looking more likely.

RAIN, WARMER FOR EUROPE

Periods of rainfall and above-normal temperatures continue for much of Europe, though the south and southeast growing areas could use more precipitation. Warmer weather mostly favors winter wheat and rapeseed crops, but leaves them less winter hardy than usual this time of year. The pattern continues to favor above-normal temperatures and no major cold snaps are expected for at least the next two weeks.

EASTERN AUSTRALIA RAIN

In Australia, heavy rain is turning more showery and locally heavy, mostly toward the coast, but continues through early next week. Boosts to irrigation supplies have been reported. It is mostly too late for much of the crops, however.

DRIER PATTERN FOR INDIA

Decent rains during the last month or two have been beneficial for the winter crops in India. The weather pattern is drier during the next 10 days, but crops look to be in good shape.

ADEQUATE TO SURPLUS CHINA MOISTURE

Precipitation has been more than adequate this winter in China's winter wheat and rapeseed areas. There will be adequate to surplus soil moisture for crop areas this spring, including irrigation reserves to the north.

Elaine Shein can be reached at elaine.shein@dtn.com

(CZ)

Elaine Shein

Elaine Shein
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