DTN Ag Weather Brief

DTN Ag Weather Brief

Joel Burgio
By  Joel Burgio , DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist
METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The most recent upper level charts feature a subtropical ridge centered over the Texas-Louisiana area. A strong west to east flow runs north of this ridge from northern California and Oregon through the Midwest to the middle Atlantic region. A weak to moderate short wave trough is shown over the north-central U.S. moving with this jet stream towards the east-southeast. To the north we see above normal height and ridging over southwest and central Alaska and from north of Hudson Bay to west and north Greenland. Trough centers are over far northwest Canada and through eastern Canada. We also note a elongated trough stretching from just off the coast of British Columbia into the Pacific, south of the Alaska ridge.

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The U.S. and European models are in fair to good agreement during the outlook period, although the European model features somewhat lower heights over the eastern Midwest than does the U.S. model at 8 to 10 days out. I favor a compromise between the models today. The sub-tropical ridge is expected to shift back to the Rockies during the outlook period, strongest over the central and southern Rockies region. A second ridge is shown in the western Atlantic during this period. This ridge is somewhat closer to the coast on the European model than on the U.S. model. Between these two ridges we see a weakness or a slight dip in the jet stream.

As noted above this trough is over the eastern Midwest on the European model and over the northeast U.S. and southeast Canada on the U.S. model. In either case it does not look very hot in the Midwest region and maybe not even in the Delta if the European model is more correct. It does look warmer today over the northern plains and the southern Canadian Prairies due to the further west position of the ridge. This is somewhat of a change from yesterday and is to be viewed with caution. Rainfall chances are somewhat harder to call. The European model suggests heavier rain chance from Indiana and Ohio eastward through the northeast U.S. while the U.S. model showers heavier rain chances from the southwest and central plains to the southern half of the western Midwest and into Illinois. A further north and east position of this anomaly is somewhat more likely due to the west position of the ridge. So while thundershowers may occur in the central/south plains region at times these are not expected to reach a level of near or above normal on a regional basis. I would tend to support a trend to near or above normal rains only for the north and east areas of the Midwest, with somewhat less in the southwest and central Midwest areas. I do support the drier outlook for the northern plains/Canadian Prairies region at this time.

Joel Burgio

DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...113 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE TX AND DEATH VALLEY CA LOW MON...25 AT COPPER BASIN ID

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7 PM YESTERDAY…GOODLAND KS 2.84 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in fair to good agreement during the outlook period, although the European model features somewhat lower heights over the eastern Midwest than does the US model at 8 to 10 days out. I favor a compromise between the models today.

The sub-tropical ridge is expected to shift back to the Rockies during the outlook period, strongest over the central and southern Rockies region. A second ridge is shown in the western Atlantic during this period. This ridge is somewhat closer to the coast on the European model than on the US model.

Between these two ridges we see a weakness or a slight dip in the jet stream.

As noted above this trough is over the eastern Midwest on the European model and over the northeast US and southeast Canada on the US model. In either case it does not look very hot in the Midwest region and maybe not even in the Delta if the European model is more correct. It does look warmer today over the northern plains and the southern Canadian Prairies due to the further west position of the ridge. This is somewhat of a change from yesterday and is to be viewed with caution. Rainfall chances are somewhat harder to call. The European model suggests heavier rain chance from Indiana and Ohio eastward through the northeast US while the US model showers heavier rain chances from the southwest and central plains to the southern half of the western Midwest and into Illinois. A further north and east position of this anomaly is somewhat more likely due to the west position of the ridge. So while thundershowers may occur in the central/south plains region at times these are not expected to reach a level of near or above normal on a regional basis. I would tend to support a trend to near or above normal rains only for the north and east areas of the Midwest, with somewhat less in the southwest and central Midwest areas. I do support the drier outlook for the northern plains/Canadian Prairies region at this time.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

MIDWEST (CORN, SOYBEANS): Generally favorable conditions for pollinating and filling corn and developing and filling soybeans in the western Midwest with no significant heat stress and mostly adequate moisture. Recent dry weather in the eastern Midwest has increased stress on corn and soybeans. Yesterday's rainfall will help but more rain is still needed. The lack of any significant heat is limiting stress. Crop development remains well behind normal in many areas. An early fall freeze could do major damage to crops this year.

NORTHERN PLAINS: Generally favorable conditions or developing corn and soybeans with mostly adequate moisture and no significant heat stress. Crop development is behind normal in most areas. An early fall freeze could do significant damage. Cooler temperatures this week will slow development of crops, however the longer range outlook points to warmer temperatures during the 6-10 day period.

EUROPE: Recent rainfall and cooler temperatures will ease stress to corn in western and central Europe.

Hot, dry weather in July coincided with tasseling and silking corn. This, along with dry soils will lead to some yield losses. Rain and cooler temperatures ease stress to soybeans and sunflowers. Hot, dry weather in July will have some impact on soybean and sunflowers although these crops are more heat tolerant than corn. Favorable crop conditions in southeast Europe.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (WHEAT/CANOLA/BARLEY): Some stress to spring grains in southwest areas of the Canadian Prairies due to dryness but recent rain will help ease stress. Mostly favorable conditions elsewhere. Some stress to canola in southwest areas of the Canadian Prairies, although with some recent improvement. Mostly favorable conditions elsewhere. Some of the crop is as much as 2 weeks behind normal development raising concerns over an early fall freeze causing damage. Below normal temperatures during the next 5 days will further slow development of crops. Longer range outlooks are looking somewhat warmer today.

UKRAINE/WEST AND SOUTH RUSSIA (CORN/SUNFLOWER): Favorable conditions for corn, sunflowers and soybeans in Ukraine and Russia.

RUSSIA/KAZAKH (SPRING WHEAT): Rain during early August has helped eased dryness over western portions of the eastern former Soviet Union stabilizing yield prospects after hot/dry weather during much of July caused irreversible yield losses. Central and eastern areas have seen a turn to hot/dry weather following favorable weather in July. Crops are currently in reproductive to early filling stages.

CHINA (SOYBEANS/CORN): Good/excellent moisture conditions for reproductive and filling corn and soybeans in northeast China. Low pressure associated with former typhoon Lekima is expected to bring more rain to northeast China crop areas early this week. This system brought heavy rains and high winds to east-central China during the weekend, likely leading to severe flooding and some wind damage to crops.

INDIA (SOYBEANS/GROUNDNUTS/COTTON/SUGARCANE): Widespread monsoon rain continues to favor developing oilseeds and cotton in west-central India.

AUSTRALIA: Dry weather continues to impact wheat in the minor growing areas of northeast Australia causing a further decline in wheat conditions. Some beneficial rains in southern New South Wales and northeast Victoria for vegetative wheat. However more is needed to maintain crop conditions. Mostly favorable moisture conditions in the remainder of Victoria, South Australia and West Australia. However more rain would benefit.

BRAZIL: Some damage to flowering wheat in central Brazil due to freezing temperatures in early July. Little or no damage is expected from recent cold weather.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat highlights

West: Light to moderate showers with isolated heavier, favoring central and southeast Iowa and southeast Minnesota during the past 24 hours. Dry or with only very light showers elsewhere in the region. Temperatures averaged near to above normal yesterday.

East: Light to moderate showers and thunderstorms with some heavier during the past 24 hours. The heaviest activity looks to have been in southern and some of central Illinois, far north Illinois and possibly in southern and eastern Indiana and Ohio. Temperatures averaged near to below normal northwest, near to above normal elsewhere in the region.

Midwest Corn, Soybeans, Winter Wheat Forecast

West: Dry or with only a few light to locally moderate showers through northeast areas today or during tonight. Mainly dry during Wednesday. Scattered to widely scattered light to moderate showers during Thursday or Thursday night. Temperatures average near to below normal today, below normal Wednesday and especially Thursday.

Scattered moderate to locally heavy showers and thundershowers Friday into Saturday, possibly favoring southern and eastern areas. Dry or with only a few light showers Sunday. Scattered showers and thundershowers redevelop Monday, possibly favoring north and east areas. Temperatures average near to below normal Friday, near to above normal Saturday through Monday.

East: Light rain or showers may linger in the east and south today. Dry or with only a few light showers favoring northern areas Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Temperatures average near to above normal today, near to below normal Wednesday, below normal Thursday.

Scattered to widely scattered showers and thundershowers, favoring western and northeast areas Friday or Saturday. Scattered to widely scattered light to locally moderate showers Sunday into Monday. This activity may shift into the eastern and southern areas. Temperatures average near to below normal Friday, near to above normal Saturday, above normal Sunday and Monday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to above normal during this period. Rainfall near to above normal north and far east areas, near to below normal southwest and central locations.

Northern Plains highlights...

Light to locally moderate showers with isolated heavier in north-central and east areas during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged above normal for the morning lows, below normal for the afternoon highs.

Northern Plains corn, soybeans and spring wheat forecast…

Dry or with only a few light showers through northeast areas today. Mostly dry or with only a few very light showers tomorrow and Thursday. Temperatures average well below normal today, below normal tomorrow, near normal Thursday.

A few light showers favoring eastern and southern areas Friday or Friday night. Mainly dry Saturday through Monday. Temperatures average near to below normal Friday, below normal Saturday, near to above normal west and near to below normal east Sunday, above normal Monday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to average above normal west, near to above normal east, during this period. Rainfall near to below normal.

Joel Burgio can be reached at joel.burgio@dtn.com

DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

(BAS)

Joel Burgio