DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The northern branch of the jet stream features a weak ridge over Alaska and northwest Canada. A trough over north-central and northeast Canada and a ridge over Greenland. This is producing mild/cool temperatures over western Canada, mild/warm central and east. The southern branch of the jet features a trough in the Gulf of Alaska. A ridge in the eastern pacific and a low amplitude jet stream with embedded disturbances across southern Canada and the northern U.S. Centers of subtropical high pressure are located over Louisiana and the southwest atlantic.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

The operational run of the US and European models are in good agreement through 8 days, fair agreement days 9-10. During the 6-10 day period the northern branch of the jet stream will feature a ridge over Alaska and western Canada. The polar vortex over north-central and northeast Canada and a weak ridge over Greenland. This will produce variable temperatures across southern Canada. The southern branch of the jet will feature a trough in the eastern pacific/Gulf of Alaska. A ridge over the western U.S. extending into the Plains.

A trough over the eastern US and a ridge in the western atlantic. This is will be a limited rainfall pattern for the central U.S. between the ridge to the west and the trough to the east. Temperatures will be warmer the closer you are to the ridge, more variable the closer you are to the trough. This pattern will generally favor developing corn and soybeans in the Midwest with no persistent hot weather and scattered showers favoring crop growth which is behind normal in most areas.

This pattern will feature variable temperatures in the Midwest. Rainfall near to above normal during the next 5 days, near to below normal days 6-10. The northern plains will near to below normal temperatures during the next 5 days, variable days 6-10. Rainfall near to below normal during the next 5 days, below normal days 6-10. The southern plains will see variable temperatures during the next 5 days, near to above normal days 6-10. Rainfall near to below normal during the next 5 days, below normal days 6-10. The Delta states will see variable temperatures. Rainfall near to below normal.

Mike Palmerino

DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...115 AT DEATH VALLEY CA

LOW THU...36 AT BRYCE CANYON UT AND 1 MILE EAST OF DILLON CO AND STANLEY ID

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7 PM YESTERDAY…Steuben, WI, 3.33 inches

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

Wednesday July 24th to Sunday July 28th.

The US and European models are in fair to good agreement during the first

2-3 days of the period, fair agreement at the end of the period. I favor a compromise between the models today but with a slight bias towards the European model. A moderate to somewhat strong short wave trough is shown moving from western Canada, across the Canadian Prairies to Ontario and the upper Midwest of the US between Wednesday and Friday of next week. The strong western US ridge is pushed south and a little to the west as this trough tracks across.

The primary trough settles southward over the Midwest and drifts into the eastern US at the end of the period. A secondary trough is shown moving over southwestern Canada and the northern plains during this time. The subtropical ridge is mainly in the southwestern US during this time frame. A second subtropical ridge is hinted at over Florida and in the southwest Atlantic. This is a variable temperature pattern for the north and central plains regions, the Midwest and the Delta but not either too hot or too cool. There does not appear to be a lot of rainfall with this pattern but the upper troughs and surface cool and warm fronts may generate some scattered shower activity at times.

The US model is similar to the European model through next Friday, although not quite as strong with the western US ridge Wednesday and Thursday. At the end of the period the US model puts more emphasis on the new trough moving across the Canadian Prairies and dipping down into the northern plains than does the European model. The US model does not show any significant upper level ridging at the end of the ten day period and even the ridge depicted early in the period in the western US is not very strong.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

TROPICS: There are no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic at this time.

DELTA (COTTON,SOYBEANS,WINTER WHEAT): The region continues mainly dry during the next few days. A cold front drops into the region after that bringing with it the risk of scattered showers and thundershowers followed by cooler temperatures. Flooding remains a concern in the region due to high river levels and recent rainfall.

MIDWEST (SOFT RED WINTER WHEAT, CORN, SOYBEANS): Some stress to developing crops due to high daytime temperatures, relatively high nighttime lows and high humidity during the next 1-2 days. Scattered moderate and to locally heavy showers and thunderstorms during the weekend will be followed by drier and much cooler conditions early next week. Some risk of local flooding with these storms, especially in Iowa.

NORTHERN PLAINS: Favorable weather for developing corn, soybeans and spring wheat is expected to continue during the next 10 days with no significant heat and mostly adequate soil moisture.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEAN/SORGHUM): Hot/dry weather will favor the remaining winter wheat harvest in Kansas during the next day or two.

Some risk for thunderstorms Sunday. Extreme heat depletes soil moisture increasing stress on developing corn, soybeans and sorghum, especially pollinating corn. Cooler weather preceded by thunderstorm activity will favor summer crops later this weekend and early next week.

WEST EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/RAPESEED, CORN, SUNFLOWER, SUGAR BEETS): Key growing areas in France are expected to see below normal rainfall and increasing temperatures during the next 5 to 7 days, increasing stress to developing crops once again. The forecast models suggest that cooler temperatures will move into France with a chance for shower activity at the end of next week or next weekend. However, it is unlikely that this will be enough to ease concerns in the region.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (WHEAT/CANOLA/BARLEY): A variable temperature pattern continues during the next 10 days. Cooler now, warmer early and middle next week, cooler again later next week and next weekend. Showers diminish during the weekend and early next week. Some shower activity again later next week. A somewhat more favorable pattern for crops at this time, although a more consistent warmer temperature pattern would be preferred.

UKRAINE/WEST AND SOUTH RUSSIA (CORN/SUNFLOWER): Corn and sunflower in south and east Ukraine, west and south Russia will benefit from periodic shower activity and a variable temperature pattern during the next 10 days. The region has recently been running at below normal temperature levels. Warmer weather is likely this weekend and early next week before it turns much cooler again.

NORTH CHINA (SOYBEANS/CORN): Mostly favorable conditions for corn and soybean growth at this time. Periodic showers and limited hot weather will favor developing crops.

NORTH CHINA PLAIN (CORN/GROUNDNUTS/RICE/COTTON): The Monsoonal rainfall continues to struggle to become established in this area. We generally look for a stronger southeast China ridge that serves to push the moisture north and west into the North China Plain region. I see signs of this ridge in southeast China early next week, however it does not stay there long. This might mean a chance for needed rains to occur early next week followed by another extended dry spell.

INDIA (SOYBEANS/GROUNDNUTS/COTTON/SUGARCANE): A few significant thunderstorms were reported yesterday in previously very dry areas of western Rajasthan and western Gujarat. Coverage low but this is the first rain of any note in these areas in awhile. The Monsoonal rains have been redeveloping over southern and east-central India during this week. There are signs that the rain will make a run at moving back to the north and west next week. This implies a fair to good chance that key growing areas in eastern Gujarat, West Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra will see more rain next week and at least a fair chance that this rain will reach into western Gujarat as well. Meanwhile, southern and east-central India has received and will receive needed rains that they didn't get much of when the Monsoon first moved northward earlier in the rainy season.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat highlights

West: Light showers with locally heavier in northeast Iowa and southeast Minnesota during the past 24 hours. A few light showers in southwest Minnesota.

Dry elsewhere in the region. Temperatures averaged above to well above normal.

High temperatures mostly 89 to 97F, hottest southern areas.

East: Moderate to heavy showers and thunderstorms from northern Illinois through southern Wisconsin during the past 24 hours. Scattered light showers through northern Indiana, southern Michigan and western Ohio with isolated heavier in southwest Ohio. Temperatures averaged above normal. High temperatures mostly 86 to 95F, hottest west and south areas.

Midwest Corn, Soybeans, Winter Wheat Forecast

West: Mostly dry today. Scattered showers, 0.25-0.75 inch and locally heavier, in South Dakota and Minnesota tonight. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, 0.30-1.50 inches and locally heavier, during Saturday, Saturday night or early Sunday. Drier later Sunday. Temperatures 93 to 101F today, 77 to 96F tomorrow,

77 to 83 Sunday. Temperatures at or near 100F today from central and southeast Nebraska through southern Iowa and northern Missouri.

Mostly dry Monday through Wednesday. Temperatures average below normal Monday, near to below normal Tuesday and Wednesday. High temperatures mostly low to middle 80s.

East: Mostly dry or with only a few lingering showers in northern areas today.

Light to moderate thundershowers with some heavier possible will mainly occur in Wisconsin, Michigan and northern Illinois during Saturday. Scattered showers and thundershowers, 0.30-1.50 inches and locally heavier, during Sunday or Sunday night. Temperatures mostly 94 to 98F today, 93 to 97F Saturday except cooler in Wisconsin, low 80s north to low 90s south Sunday.

Scattered showers and thundershowers linger in southern areas early Monday, drier later in the day Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures average below normal. Highs upper 70s to low 80s Monday, low 80s Tuesday and Wednesday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to average from slightly below to slightly above normal during this period. Rainfall is expected to average near to below normal.

Northern Plains corn, soybeans and spring wheat highlights

Mostly dry yesterday. Scattered thundershowers during the night favoring southern North Dakota and South Dakota. Temperatures averaged near to below normal yesterday.

Northern Plains corn, soybeans and spring wheat forecast…

Scattered showers and thundershowers favoring southern areas this afternoon or tonight. Mostly dry Saturday. Dry Sunday. Temperatures average below normal west and northeast and above normal southeast today, below normal during the weekend. High temperatures during the weekend mostly in the 70s to a few low 80s.

Mostly dry Monday and Tuesday. Dry or with only a few light showers during Wednesday. Temperatures average above normal west and near normal east Monday, above normal Tuesday and Wednesday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to vary somewhat during this period. Rainfall near to below normal.

Central/Southern Plains wheat and livestock highlights...

Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures above to much above normal. High temperatures yesterday were mostly 97 to 105F, 100-105F across west and central Kansas.

Central/southern plains wheat and livestock forecast...

Mostly dry today and most of Saturday. A few thundershowers Saturday night favoring northern and west-central areas. Scattered to widely scattered thunderstorms Sunday, favoring southwest, central and east areas. Temperatures 100-105F again today, cooler north and northwest but still 97 to 103F elsewhere in the region Saturday. The cooling trend continues Sunday. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s north and west areas Sunday, still 95 to to 100F in east and south Oklahoma and north-central Texas.

Southeast areas may see scattered showers lingering Monday, mainly through northeast Texas and southeast Oklahoma. Mostly dry Tuesday and Wednesday.

Temperatures average below normal. High temperatures mostly in the 80s during this period, except central and northeast Texas may still reach the low 90s Monday before turning cooler Tuesday and Wednesday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average below to near normal during this period. Rainfall near to below normal.

Joel Burgio can be reached at joel.burgio@dtn.com

DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

(BAS)

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