Commodities Market Impact Weather

OMAHA (DTN) -- A warm Midwest pattern, and possible tropical weather activity in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Monday.

FAVORABLE MIDWEST PATTERN

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for a warm and dry pattern over the Midwest during the next week to 10 days. This pattern will be favorable to crops; however, sustained heat and dryness may be stressful to crops that have less than adequate root systems.

POSSIBLE GULF TROPICAL ACTIVITY

In the Gulf of Mexico, a tropical system may form in the northeastern sector of the Gulf during this week. This system would threaten to bring rain and wind to the area from Florida to southeast Louisiana and northward into the southeastern U.S. Heavy rains could threaten severe flooding. Meanwhile, tropical activity may limit the amount of moisture flowing northward into the interior of the U.S. and support a drier trend.

SOUTHERN PLAINS HARVEST DELAYS

In the Southern Plains, thunderstorms during the past weekend and early this week are unfavorable for wheat harvest. Drier and warmer conditions during the balance of the week will be more favorable.

FAVORABLE NORTHERN PLAINS TREND

Northern Plains conditions remain favorable for developing corn, soybeans and spring wheat. Cooler weather is likely during the five-day period with some moderation during the six-to-10-day period. Periodic thundershowers will mostly favor developing crops, except in areas of local flooding due to heavy thunderstorms.

VARIABLE PRAIRIES CONDITIONS

In the Canadian Prairies, recent showers and warm weather will have favored developing crops in the region. Temperatures are expected to vary somewhat during the next 10 days, with conditions sometimes cooler and sometimes warmer. Rainfall is forecast near to above normal east and near to below normal west. Crop development is behind normal and needs continued warm weather to ensure favorable growth before fall frosts occur.

DRY EUROPE PATTERN

Across Europe, recently-hot conditions have eased. However, the pattern remains dry. Late-filling wheat and rapeseed and developing corn, sunflower and sugar beets are under stress due to dryness even with less hot weather. Rainfall is expected to average near to mostly below normal for the next 10 days, while temperatures remain near to mostly above normal.

BENEFICIAL RUSSIA TREND

In the Black Sea region, temperatures are expected to be lower during the next week to 10 days. Rainfall chances increase somewhat as well, especially in eastern Ukraine and the Black Soils region but possibly in southern Ukraine and south Russia as well. Improving conditions for sunflower and corn.

PATCHY BRAZIL FROST

South-central Brazil had some occurrences of frost during the past weekend. Frost damage to crops is expected to be light.

SCATTERED INDIA MONSOON RAIN

India monsoon rains continue to show a scattered and variable pattern. North-central and west-central crop areas have not seen rain as of yet. Monsoon rain has also not arrived in northwest India crop areas.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @BAndersonDTN

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