Commodities Market Impact Weather

Short Drier Stretch

Bryce Anderson
By  Bryce Anderson , DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist
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OMAHA (DTN) -- A brief period of drier conditions for central U.S. fieldwork, and ongoing favorable South America trends, are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Wednesday.

NARROW MIDWEST PLANTING WINDOW

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for very warm to hot and dry conditions over the Midwest during the next two days. This combination will improve planting conditions. Progress will still be uneven due to saturated soils. Rain and thunderstorms return to the western and northern areas at the end of this week and continue through early next week. Extreme rains may occur, causing a new round of fieldwork disruption along with flooding. Some fields in the east-central and southeast Midwest may continue to show improvement, as rain will be slower to reach these areas and higher temperatures will last longer.

LIMITED NORTHERN PLAINS DRYING

In the Northern Plains, warmer and drier conditions will continue for another day Wednesday. The pattern turns colder and wetter beginning later Thursday and especially Friday, with a new round of planting disruptions. The region looks to become wet and then much cooler again through the coming weekend and Monday.

DRY MIDWEEK IN SOUTHERN PLAINS

Southern Plains areas will be very warm and dry through Friday. This combination will favor winter wheat development along with row crop fieldwork. Thunderstorms redevelop in the region during the weekend and again early next week. Renewed rain will cause planting delays, notably in central and eastern areas.

WARMER AND DRIER FOR DELTA

The Delta will be drier and warmer through the next week, possibly longer. This pattern will allow widespread fieldwork and planting progress.

LIGHT PRAIRIES SHOWERS

Midweek rain showers are indicated for the Canadian Prairies. North-central and eastern areas have up to one-half inch (50 millimeters) possible. Rain of similar intensity moves into southwestern areas Friday and Saturday. Planting conditions are slowly improving.

FAVORABLE BRAZIL CONDITIONS

Across Brazil, second-crop (safrinha) corn areas continue with a late-season drier trend; however, soil moisture is favorable for filling crops, while dry conditions will favor harvest. Southern Brazil will be drier, allowing improved harvest conditions after recent heavy rain.

MILD IN ARGENTINA

In Argentina, dry conditions through Friday will favor seasonal fieldwork, including harvesting summer crops and planting winter wheat. Light rain during the weekend does not look too much of a concern. Heavier rains may occur in the Cordoba and Santa Fe area early next week.

VARIABLE BLACK SEA FORECAST

Across the Black Sea region, light-to-moderate rain is in store for western Ukraine over the next five days. Eastern Ukraine and Russia will be dry. The entire region will have above normal temperatures. Soil moisture is generally favorable for crops at this point.

COOL WITH SHOWERS IN EUROPE

Eastern Europe will have additional moderate-to-locally-heavy rain through early next week. The entire continent is also in line for below normal temperatures. Wheat crop prospects are looking much larger than drought-affected production a year ago.

SCATTERED AUSTRALIA SHOWERS

Across Australia, the best chance for needed rain to occur continues to focus on south-central and southeast Australia during the next 10 days. This might include the easternmost areas of Western Australia's wheat belt. It should including wheat growing areas of South Australia and Victoria.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @BAndersonDTN

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Bryce Anderson

Bryce Anderson
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