Commodities Market Impact Weather

More Rain for Midwest, Warmer for Southern Plains

Elaine Shein
By  Elaine Shein , DTN/Progressive Farmer Associate Content Manager
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OMAHA (DTN) -- Precipitation and floods slowing or delaying fieldwork in the Midwest, warmer weather for the Southern Plains winter wheat belt, and rain in Brazil being favorable for second-crop corn are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Wednesday.

ABOVE-NORMAL RAINS IN MIDWEST

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for near- to above-normal rainfall during the five-day and six- to 10-day periods. This is expected to maintain conditions too wet for early spring fieldwork. This might include a heavy rain threat during the six- to 10-day periods if today's European model turns out to be correct. This threatens more flooding along the rivers of the Midwest.

MOSTLY DRIER TREND FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

In the Northern Plains, there is a slight chance of rain, up to half an inch, occurring in northwest Minnesota this weekend. This, along with projected warmer weather, may lead to increased melting of snow cover and some flooding along the Red River. Except for this system, the drier weather pattern will continue during the 10-day period.

WARMER FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS

In the Southern Plains, favorable soil moisture conditions are expected to continue for the developing winter wheat crop. Warmer weather during the next five to seven days will promote more rapid development of the wheat crop. A turn to cooler weather after that might slow growth rates somewhat.

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RAIN FOR BRAZIL

Rain, showers and thundershowers are forecast to develop through the southern crop belt of Brazil during the Thursday-to-Friday time frame, followed by lower temperatures. This will be somewhat unfavorable for the maturing crop, and it will likely slow harvest progress somewhat. Rain in Parana favors development of second-crop corn at the end of this week. Thunderstorms in Mato Grosso du Sol yesterday will slowly work northward into Mato Grosso during the next several days. This will cool the current hot conditions and favor development of second-crop corn.

DRIER TREND FOR ARGENTINA

It was drier and hotter yesterday in central Argentina. The forecast suggests generally below-normal rainfall during the next 10 days with variable temperatures, favoring maturing crops and harvesting. Soil moisture is diminishing in winter wheat areas that will be planted in early May.

DRY TREND IN BLACK SEA REGION

In the Black Sea region, winter wheat is breaking dormancy and greening up. The forecast suggests that the recent drying trend over eastern Ukraine will continue during the next 10 days. There is only one weather system that may bring significant rain to the region during that period, but this system is highly uncertain. There is increasing stress to development of winter wheat in the area.

DRIER, WARMER OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN AUSTRALIA

In Australia, there were moderate-to-heavy thunderstorms through New South Wales and southern Queensland during the weekend. Rainfall was a half inch to 2 inches and locally heavier. This provides a much-needed boost to soil moisture ahead of winter wheat planting. Wheat planting can begin in Queensland during April, but normally holds off in New South Wales until May. The area has been under severe drought conditions for a while. The forecast suggests that the region might see near- to above-normal temperatures and below-normal rainfall during the next 10 days. More rain will be needed to continue to ease drought conditions.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR NORTH CHINA

Mainly dry weather is expected to continue across the North China Plain during the next six to 10 days. Temperatures vary somewhat during this period. Rainfall will be needed to support increasing development of winter wheat, especially through climatologically drier north and west areas. Soil moisture and irrigation should be adequate to surplus in winter rapeseed areas of the Yangtze River Valley area at this time because the fall and winter precipitation was above normal. This area may see periodic rainy weather during the next 10 days. This may be unfavorable for mature rapeseed and will likely delay the harvest.

SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR SOUTH AFRICA

Showers and thundershowers along with cooler weather have occurred during the past couple of days in the maize and sugarcane areas of South Africa. Rainfall favors late-filling corn and late-developing sugarcane, but may be somewhat unfavorable for early maturing crops and any early harvesting.

Elaine Shein can be reached at elaine.shein@dtn.com

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Elaine Shein

Elaine Shein
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