DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The northern branch of the jet stream features a ridge over Alaska and western Canada extending into central Canada and a trough over eastern Canada extending across Greenland. This is producing warm temperatures in western Canada, mild/warm central, mild/cool in the east. The southern branch of the jet features a trough in the eastern pacific/Gulf of Alaska. A trough over the interior southwest U.S. A ridge over the Plains and a trough over the eastern U.S. and western pacific. The center of subtropical high pressure is located over the south-central atlantic.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

The U.S. and European models are in good agreement through the period. During the 6-10 day period the northern branch of the jet stream will feature a strong blocking ridge over Alaska and the Gulf of Alaska and a trough dominating most of Canada. This will be a cold pattern for Canada. The southern branch of the jet will feature a trough in the eastern pacific. A low to moderate amplitude jet stream with embedded disturbances across the U.S. and a ridge in the northwest atlantic. This will be a fairly active precipitation pattern across the Midwest, less so in the plains due to the speed of movement of systems. Temperatures will be variable, milder out ahead of systems, cooler behind them.

This pattern will feature variable temperatures in the Midwest. Precipitation near to below normal during the next 5 days, near to above normal days 6-10. The northern plains will see variable temperatures. Precipitation mostly below normal. The southern plains will see variable temperatures. Precipitation near to above normal during the next 5 days, near to below normal days 6-10. The Delta states will see variable temperatures. Precipitation near to below normal during the next 5 days, near to above normal days 6-10.

Mike Palmerino

DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...86 DEGREES AT WELTON AZ

LOW THU...15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO AT COWDREY CO

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7 PM YESTERDAY…GREENSBORO NC .87 INCH

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in good agreement during the period. The northern branch of the jet stream will feature a strong blocking ridge over Alaska and the Gulf of Alaska. And a trough dominating most of Canada. This will be a cold pattern for Canada. The southern branch of the jet will feature a trough in the eastern pacific. A low to moderate amplitude jet stream with embedded disturbances across the US. And a ridge in the northwest atlantic.

This will be a fairly active precipitation pattern across the Midwest, less so in the plains due to the speed of movement of systems. Temperatures will be variable, milder out ahead of systems, cooler behind them.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS/CANADIAN PRAIRIES: A heavy snowpack in the eastern Dakotas will lead to major flooding on the Red River this spring. Rainfall is expected to be limited during the next 7-10 days allowing for a more orderly snow melt.

MIDWEST (SOFT RED WINTER WHEAT, TRAVEL and TRANSPORT): Major flooding in the northern and western Midwest due to heavy rains last week and melting snow.

Additional light to moderate rain is expected over the weekend with the potential for a more significant system later next week.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WHEAT/LIVESTOCK): Adequate to surplus soil moisture for winter wheat as it breaks dormancy.

BRAZIL (SOYBEANS/CORN/SUGARCANE/COFFEE): Favorable weather for developing second crop corn in central Brazil. Drier weather in southern Brazil favors the soybean harvest.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/SUNFLOWER/WHEAT): Drier weather will favor maturing corn and soybeans and the early harvest.

SOUTH AFRICA (MAIZE/SUGARCANE): Beneficial showers brought needed moisture to western sections of the corn belt for a second week, although the rain came too late to significantly improve prospects of some earlier-planted crops.

WESTERN FSU (WINTER WHEAT): Winter wheat prospects are currently favorable across the region due to a wet fall and winter, though developing short-term dryness over southeastern bears watching.

CENTRAL EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/RAPESEED): A drying trend appears likely during the next week to 10 days or so. Rain early this month when also combined with early winter increased precipitation has improved the outlook for these crops this spring...following last season's drought. The current drying trend is favorable in terms of improving conditions for late winter fieldwork and prospects for early spring field work as well.

NORTH CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Recent moderate precipitation. This will provide a welcome boost to soil moisture in key growing areas. Planting typically occurs during May.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/RAPESEED): Moderate to locally heavy rainfall during this week through the southeast portion of the North China Plain, mainly from southeast Henan and southern Shandong southward. More widespread rain is need for north and west areas of the NCP to support increasing development of winter wheat in these areas. Soil moisture and irrigation should be favorable in winter rapeseed areas of the Yangtze river valley area at this time.

NORTH INDIA/PAKISTAN (WINTER WHEAT/RAPESEED): Episodes of scattered showers and cool temperatures during this winter likely favored development of winter crops in these areas, although the cool temperatures may have slowed development somewhat at times. Areas of local flooding where rains were heaviest...most notably in Pakistan. The region has turned drier and hotter during this week.

This will most likely favor maturing crops and early harvesting.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat highlights

West: Dry conditions. Temperatures near to above normal.

East: Dry conditions or just a little light rain in the east. Temperatures below normal.

Midwest Corn, Soybeans, Winter Wheat Forecast

West: Dry weather Friday. Rain develops on Saturday continuing into Sunday.

Light to moderate amounts are expected. Mostly dry weather Monday-Tuesday. Dry conditions or just a little light rain Wednesday. Rain on Thursday.

Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday, below normal Monday, variable Tuesday, above normal Wednesday-Thursday.

East: Mostly dry weather through Saturday. Light to moderate rain Sunday.

Mostly dry weather Monday-Wednesday. Dry conditions or just a little light rain Thursday. Temperatures below normal Friday, near to below normal Saturday, near to above normal Sunday, below normal Monday-Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday, above normal Thursday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures variable. Precipitation near to above normal.

Northern Plains corn, soybeans and spring wheat highlights…

Dry conditions. Temperatures variable.

Northern Plains corn, soybeans and spring wheat forecast…

Mostly dry weather Friday-Saturday. Light precipitation Sunday. Mostly dry weather Monday-Wednesday. Dry conditions or just a little light precipitation Thursday. Temperatures near to above normal Friday-Saturday, near to below normal Sunday, below normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday-Wednesday, variable Thursday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures variable. Precipitation below normal.

Central/Southern Plains wheat and livestock highlights...

Dry conditions. Temperatures near to above normal.

Central/southern plains wheat and livestock forecast...

Light to moderate rain Friday. Lingering light rain over northern and eastern areas Saturday. Mostly dry weather Sunday-Tuesday. Dry conditions or just a few light showers Wednesday-Thursday. Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday, variable Monday, above normal Tuesday-Thursday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures variable. Precipitation near to below normal.

Mike Palmerino can be reached at michael.palmerino@dtn.com

DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

(BAS)

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