DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The most recent upper level analysis features a deep upper level low centered over the central plains region, the upper level reflection of the surface blizzard. We see an upper level ridge in the eastern U.S. with above normal heights covering most areas east of the Miss river in the U.S. and much of Canada from Manitoba and Hudson Bay eastward. This is promoting very warm weather, relative to normal, east of the central U.S. storm system. A weak ridge is indicated over western Canada and a trough is shown dipping into the Gulf of Alaska and also covering southwest of Alaska and areas nearby in the north Pacific.

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The U.S. and European models are in fair to good agreement early in the outlook period and for most areas later in the period as well. The European model features a somewhat deeper upper level trough over northeast and east-central Canada during the outlook period. This trough helps bring a new cold high southward into Manitoba by Thursday and into the Great Lakes region Friday. This suggests somewhat cooler conditions for the northeast plains and the northern Midwest than what the U.S. model is showing. The U.S. model eventually shows a 1036 mb high moving over Manitoba but not until day ten. A compromise is likely in order as it concerns this feature. Today's U.S. model shows a weak trough crossing the Rockies and the northern part of the central plains later in the period. This leads to a weak surface low over Nebraska and Iowa towards the end of the period. The European model is somewhat slower and a little further south with this trough/surface low and only has a weak low over southern Kansas at day ten. This is likely due to the surface high over the upper Midwest slowing down the progression of that next trough, on this model.

Again a compromise is in order. In either case a quite period for the central U.S. areas during much of the 6-10 day period, a welcome relief from the stormy weather currently being experienced. However, as we have seen a number of times already during this winter, this quite period may not last long.

Joel Burgio

DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...99 AT MCALLEN TX

LOW WED...10 BELOW ZERO AT FIRST CONNECTICUT LAKE NH

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7 PM YESTERDAY…CASPER WY 3.17 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in fair to good agreement early in the outlook period and for most areas later in the period as well. The European model features a somewhat deeper upper level trough over northeast and east-central Canada during the outlook period. This trough helps bring a new cold high southward into Manitoba by Thursday and into the Great Lakes region Friday. This suggests somewhat cooler conditions for the northeast plains and the northern Midwest than what the US model is showing. The US model eventually shows a 1036 mb high moving over Manitoba but not until day ten. A compromise is likely in order as it concerns this feature. Today's US model shows a weak trough crossing the Rockies and the northern part of the central plains later in the period. This leads to a weak surface low over Nebraska and Iowa towards the end of the period. The European model is somewhat slower and a little further south with this trough/surface low and only has a weak low over southern Kansas at day ten. This is likely due to the surface high over the upper Midwest slowing down the progression of that next trough, on this model.

Again a compromise is in order. In either case a quite period for the central US areas during much of the 6-10 day period, a welcome relief from the stormy weather currently being experienced. However, as we have seen a number of times already during this winter, this quite period may not last long.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS: An intense storm across the central Plains will continue to bring high winds and blizzard conditions to parts of the west-central and northern Plains and Rockies through Thursday. A blizzard warning remains in effect for areas from northeast Colorado and southeast Wyoming through western Nebraska, west, central and northeast South Dakota, eastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota. Impacts to travel, transport and livestock will be severe today. Heavy rain, snow melt, and ice jams on rivers have produced widespread flooding across the Upper Midwest.

MIDWEST (SOFT RED WINTER WHEAT, TRAVEL and TRANSPORT): Major storms impacting the region add to the snowpack in the northwest Midwest/northeast plains area impacting transportation and stressing livestock. Heavy rains and ice jams produce flooding on the rivers in the west while heavy rain in the southeast increases the risk of flooding there as well. Significant flooding is possible throughout the region this spring with little fieldwork expected to be accomplished during the month of March.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WHEAT/LIVESTOCK): Moderate to heavy rains this week favors the wheat crop which will be breaking dormancy in the next few weeks.

Improving soil moisture conditions in the recently drier areas of Texas and Oklahoma. Heavy rainfall is likely to create muddy conditions in the feedlots.

This will increase stress to livestock. Heavy snow, strong winds and blizzard conditions will increase stress to livestock in northeast Colorado and west to north Nebraska today.

BRAZIL (SOYBEANS/CORN/SUGARCANE/COFFEE): Favorable weather for developing second crop corn in central Brazil as the rainy season continues. Increasing disruptions to the soybean harvest in southern Brazil due to frequent shower activity.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/SUNFLOWER/WHEAT): A drier trend will favor filling and maturing corn and soybeans during this week. Drier weather in southern areas favors mature sunflower and the harvest.

SOUTH AFRICA (MAIZE/SUGARCANE): Scattered showers and thundershowers in southern growing areas will favor late reproductive and filling crops in the area. Drier, somewhat hotter weather elsewhere in the region is unfavorable for developing crops, especially in the driest areas of Northwest and northwest Free State.

EUROPE/UKRAINE/WEST RUSSIA (WINTER WHEAT): A much more active weather pattern continues this week in England, north and east France, Benelux, Germany and Poland. This may be either rain or snow during the week. The weekend featured moderate to heavy precipitation, mostly rain, for these areas. Precipitation, whether rain or snow, will mean adequate to surplus moisture for late winter/early spring growth of winter wheat and rapeseed and is mostly favorable. However, it might also mean delays to spring field work and impacts to travel and transport will be increasing.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/RAPESEED): An active fall and winter period near the Yangtze river valley of eastern China. This will provide adequate to surplus moisture for crops in the region come spring. This is mainly the winter rapeseed growing belt but the moisture has, at times, extended into the southern winter wheat belt. The northern winter wheat areas have been drier, typical for this area during the winter months. As the rain chances shift southward the dryness over the northern North China Plain may become more of a concern as we move through the month of March and into April. Increased rain in southern China will provide favorable moisture for planting early double crop rice.

INDIA/PAKISTAN (WINTER WHEAT/RAPESEED): Episodes of scattered showers and cool temperatures during this winter will favor development of crops, although the cool temperatures may have slowed development somewhat at times. Areas of local flooding where rains were heaviest...most notably in Pakistan.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat highlights

West: Moderate to heavy rain, 0.75-2.00 inches and locally heavier, along with strong winds through western and northwestern areas yesterday. Rain is currently changing to freezing rain or snow in the west. Showers elsewhere in the region. Temperatures averaged above to well above normal yesterday.

East: Moderate to locally heavy rain, 0.25-1.25 inch and locally heavier, from south and east Illinois into southwest and central Indiana during the night.

Showers and light rain elsewhere in the region yesterday or overnight.

Temperatures averaged well above normal yesterday.

Midwest Corn, Soybeans, Winter Wheat Forecast

West: Rain changes to snow from west to east across northern areas today before ending tonight. Rain showers ending as snow showers elsewhere in the region. Strong, damaging, winds throughout the region today will diminish tonight. Mainly dry Friday and Saturday. Temperatures average above normal this morning, colder this afternoon, below normal Friday and Saturday.

Mostly dry Sunday through Tuesday. Temperatures average below normal Sunday and Monday, near to below normal Tuesday.

East: Rain and thunderstorms southeast and east-central Illinois eastward today into tonight. Showers and light rain northwest areas during this time.

Increasingly strong winds. Drier and windy tomorrow. Fair Saturday.

Temperatures average well above normal today, near to below normal Friday, below normal Saturday.

Mostly dry or with only a little light precipitation Sunday through Tuesday.

Temperatures average below normal.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to vary somewhat during this period. Precipitation near to below normal.

Central/Southern Plains wheat and livestock highlights...

Precipitation totals averaging 0.50-1.50 inches through north-central areas yesterday with rain changing to snow during the night. Precipitation averaging 0.25-0.75 inch in northeast Colorado, also rain changing to snow. These areas experienced very strong wind gusts yesterday and last night with blizzard conditions at times. Showers, 0.10-0.50 inch and locally heavier, through north and east Kansas, east Oklahoma and east Texas yesterday and last night...except extreme northwest Kansas saw rain change to snow and experienced very strong wind gusts during the night. Strong wind gusts also the balance of the region as well during the night. Temperatures averaged above to well above normal yesterday.

Central/southern plains wheat and livestock forecast...

Strong winds and snow lingers in north-central and northeast areas today.

Drier and very windy elsewhere in the region today. Mostly dry tomorrow and Saturday. Temperatures average below normal today, Friday and early Saturday, near to below normal later Saturday.

Mostly dry Sunday. A little light precipitation may develop through west-central and southwest areas Monday or Tuesday. Mainly dry elsewhere in the region during this time. Temperatures average near to slightly above normal Sunday, near to below normal Monday and Tuesday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to above normal during this period. Precipitation near to below normal.

BRAZIL SOYBEANS AND GRAINS

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

A few afternoon showers and isolated thundershowers favoring northwest and east Parana yesterday. Mainly dry in RGDS during this time. Temperatures averaged near to below normal, warmest northern areas.

Forecast...

Episodes of scattered showers and thundershowers mainly in Parana today and Friday. Scattered showers redevelop in RGDS during Saturday. Temperatures average near to below normal today and Friday. Warmer in the northern areas Saturday.

Scattered showers and thundershowers favoring RGDS, Santa Catarina and southern Parana Sunday into Monday. Drier Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal north, near to below normal south.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Scattered to widely scattered thunderstorms, some locally heavy, favoring eastern Mato Grosso and MGDS, yesterday. Dry or with only a few light showers with locally heavier elsewhere in the region. Temperatures averaged near to above normal with highs of 86 to 97F reported.

Forecast...

Episodes of scattered thundershowers will tend to favor MGDS today through Saturday. A few light showers with locally heavier elsewhere in the region during this time. Temperatures mostly above normal in Mato Grosso, mostly near normal in MGDS and Goias.

Scattered to widely scattered showers and thundershowers develop in Mato Grosso and Goias during the Sunday to Tuesday time period. Temperatures return to more normal levels during this period.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, North Buenos Aires…

Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged near to slightly below normal. Highs upper 70s to low 80s F.

Forecast...

Mostly dry today and Friday. Dry or with only a few light showers with locally heavier during Saturday. Temperatures average near to below normal today and Friday, near normal Saturday.

Mostly dry or with only a few light showers Sunday. Dry Monday. Showers may develop in the western most areas Tuesday. Temperatures average near to above normal Sunday and Monday, somewhat cooler Tuesday.

La Pampa, South Buenos Aires…

Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal west, near to below normal east, yesterday.

Forecast...

Mostly dry today. Showers tonight mainly in La Pampa. Showers during Friday in La Pampa and western most areas of Buenos Aires. Sprinkles or light showers move through central and eastern areas Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal today, somewhat cooler tomorrow and especially Saturday.

Dry or with only light showers through eastern areas Sunday. Mostly dry Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures average near to above normal Sunday, below normal Monday and Tuesday.

Joel Burgio

DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

(BAS)

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