DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

March corn closed up 3 1/4 cents and December 2019 corn was up 2 1/2 cents. March soybeans closed down 8 1/2 cents and November soybeans were down 6 1/4 cents. March K.C. wheat closed down 6 3/4 cents, March Chicago wheat was down 9 1/2 cents and March Minneapolis wheat was down 6 3/4 cents. The March U.S. dollar index is up 0.73 at 96.46. February gold is down $9.50 at $1,258.40 while March silver is down 18 cents and March copper is down 0.0265. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 180 points at 22,680. February crude oil is down $0.20 at $46.08. February heating oil is down $0.0038 while February RBOB gasoline is up $0.0048 and February natural gas is up $0.217.

For the week:

March corn closed down 6 1/4 cents and December 2019 corn was down 4 1/2 cents. March soybeans were down 16 cents while November 2019 soybeans were down 14 1/2 cents. March Kansas City wheat was down 15 1/2 cents, March Chicago wheat was down 16 cents, and March Minneapolis wheat was down 22 3/4 cents.

Corn:

March corn closed up 3 1/4 cents at $3.78 1/2 Friday, a modest rebound on lighter volume that put prices down 6 1/4 cents for the week. Like several commodities, corn price was influenced this week by outside markets and investor nervousness in general as the Dow Jones Industrials fell to new lows for the year with several worries in the news to choose from. Corn's own export news, however, remained favorable for prices in spite of the lower week of trading. After seeing bullish export sales on Thursday, USDA announced another 8.8 million bushels (222,504 mt) of U.S. corn sold to unknown destinations for 2018-19 on Friday. While the central U.S. enjoyed a mostly mild week of winter weather, Friday's seven-day forecasts for crops in Brazil and Argentina look favorable with beneficial rains expected in southern Brazil. For now, the trend in cash corn remains up in spite of this week's selling. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.41 Thursday, down from its highest prices in six months and 35 cents below the March contract. Most commodities were lower again Friday with Dow Jones Industrials down 180 points, pressing new lows for the year.

Soybeans:

March soybeans closed down 8 1/2 cents at $8.97 3/4 Friday and were down 16 cents on the week. Prices continue to show disappointment in the amount of soybeans sold since China began buying from the U.S. again last week. Including Friday's announcement from USDA that 4.2 million bushels (115,500 mt) of U.S. soybeans were sold to unknown destinations for 2018-19, a total of 122.6 million bushels (3.34 mmt) of soybean sales have been announced by USDA, including some to unknown. Given USDA's estimate that China will import 90.0 mmt of soybeans in 2018-19, the nine-day tally represents less than half of China's average monthly total and so there may be more purchases on the way. Time is running short, however, as soybean harvest has begun in Mato Grosso and Friday's seven-day forecast looks favorable for crops in both, Brazil and Argentina. Brazil's new-crop soybean prices are also competitive with the U.S. even though China's 25% tariff remains in place. Technically, the trend of soybean prices has turned back to sideways. The fundamental outlook remains bearish and the trade environment is highly uncertain. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $8.10 Thursday, down from its highest price in four months and $0.84 below the January futures contract.

Wheat:

March K.C. wheat closed down 6 3/4 cents at $5.02 3/4 Friday and was down 15 1/2 cents on the week, finding little happening lately to offer support for prices. Russia's much-awaited Friday meeting resulted in wheat prices sinking lower as Dow Jones reported there was no plan announced to curb wheat exports, as some had hoped. The March U.S. dollar index is down roughly a half-point from a week ago, but that came at a cost, as investors were heavy sellers in the stock market and most commodities. The primary problem for U.S. wheat prices, of course, is that all-wheat ending supplies are likely to exceed a billion bushels in 2018-19 without some increase in exports, which has yet to be seen. As of Thursday's weekly report, total wheat export commitments were down 12% from last year's meager pace. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported Argentina's wheat crop is 68% harvested after having problems with recent rains. Friday's seven-day forecast is more favorable for crops, showing mainly light rain amounts expected. For cash HRW and HRS wheats, the trends are sideways, while the trend for cash SRW wheat remains up. DTN's National HRW Index closed at $4.81 Thursday, below its three-month high and down 29 cents from the March futures contract. DTN's National SRW Index closed at $4.92 Thursday, also down from its highest price in three months.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @ToddHultman1

(CZ)

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