DTN Midday Livestock Comments

Live Cattle Futures Hold Narrow Gains

Rick Kment
By  Rick Kment , DTN Analyst
(DTN file photo by Russ Quinn)
General Comments

Very limited trade is seen across the livestock market with traders focusing on narrow gains in live cattle futures, while the rest of the complex has slowly but steadily given back early support at midday. Corn markets are higher in light trade. December corn futures are 4 cents higher. Stock markets are higher in light trade. The Dow Jones is 422 points higher while Nasdaq is up 116 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Live cattle futures are holding single-digit gains in most contracts. There is very little additional direction seen across the market despite a late-morning pullback in feeder cattle and hog markets. This could allow for markets to remain well contained in a narrow trading range through not only the end of the session, but the rest of the week. Cash cattle interest is still slow to develop with a few dressed bids starting to pop up through the North. Early bids are seen at $180 to $183 per hundredweight (cwt), while live bids are still unavailable. Asking prices are still elevated, firming at $119 to $120 per cwt live and $187 dressed. Active trade may not be seen until late in the week. Boxed Beef cut-outs at midday are lower, $1.33 lower (select) and down $0.42 per cwt (choice) with light movement of 82 total loads reported (52 loads of choice cuts, 16 loads of select cuts, 5 loads of trimmings, 9 loads of ground beef).

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FEEDER CATTLE:

Feeder cattle futures have slipped lower with losses of 30 to 47 cents per cwt as traders remain focused on market pressure through midweek. March futures are leading the losses lower, as traders continue to focus on the lack of increased market direction seen through the week. Prices continue to remain stuck within the wide $16-per-cwt trading range seen over the last two months, although markets remain in the bottom half of this trading range due to concerns of long-term beef movement through early 2019.

LEAN HOGS:

Early gains have faded through the morning with prices 20 to 70 cents per cwt lower at midday. The overall lack of support in the complex February futures are leading the market lower with losses of 70 cents per cwt, although very little additional direction is expected to be seen through the rest of the complex. Following a $5-per-cwt pullback in February futures over the last two weeks, there continues to be concerns of market erosion, even though prices are still hovering in the wide sideways trend seen over the last couple of months. This range is expected to hold through the end of the year, although traders may focus on additional direction based on any news in global pork demand. Cash prices are higher on the National Direct morning cash hog report. The weighted average price is $0.14 higher at $49.47 per cwt with the range from $45 to $50.74 on 7,401 head reported sold. Cash prices are lower on the Iowa/Minnesota Direct morning cash hog report. The weighted average price is $0.41 lower at $48.44 per cwt with the range from $45 to $49.50 on 2,541 head reported sold. The National Pork Plant Report posted 193 loads selling on the morning report. Pork carcass values fell $1.94 per cwt at $66.59 per cwt. Lean hog index for 11/26 is $57.17, down $0.27, with a projected two-day index is unavailable at this time.

Rick Kment can be reached at rick.kment@dtn.com

(CZ)

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Rick Kment