DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn was up 3 1/2 cents in the December contract and up 3 cents in the July. Soybeans were up 30 1/4 cents in the January contract and up 28 3/4 cents in the July. Wheat closed up 8 cents in the December Kansas City contract, up 7 1/2 cents in December Chicago, and up 7 1/2 cents in the December Minneapolis contract. The December U.S. dollar index is down 0.85 at 96.05. December gold is up $21.40 at $1,236.40 while December silver is up 48 cents and December copper is up $0.0605. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 177 points at 25,292. December crude oil is down $1.71 at $63.60. December heating oil is down $0.0530 while December RBOB gasoline is down $0.0346 and December natural gas is down 0.007.

Corn:

December corn closed up 3 1/2 cents at $3.66 3/4 Thursday, modestly benefiting from a tweet by President Trump shortly after 9 a.m. CDT which suggested progress in trade talks with China. Of course, the larger market response was in soybean prices, but after two weeks of lower trading and bearish market mood, corn prices also got a lift. Thursday's lower U.S. dollar also helped grain prices. Heavy rain moved through eastern Texas and Arkansas late Wednesday and is bringing more moisture to the eastern Midwest Thursday with damaging storms in Alabama. The seven-day forecast expects more rain in the central and Eastern Corn Belt, adding to harvest challenges in those areas. Early Thursday, USDA said export sales and shipments of corn totaled 15.5 million and 29.7 million bushels last week, a neutral showing. Corn shipments are up 76% in 2018-19, still a bullish pace, but sales have dropped off the past few weeks. With help from Thursday's rally, the trend in corn remains up as we head toward a quieter time of year. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.25 Wednesday, well above its September low of $3.00 and priced 38 cents below the December contract. In outside markets, the U.S. dollar index is down 0.85, related to a news report from The Times that the U.K. struck a tentative Brexit deal, which would allow European access to British financial firms. If true, many expect the Bank of England to raise interest rates in 2019.

Soybeans:

January soybeans closed up 30 1/4 cents at $8.82 Thursday, a session that was dominated by an unexpected tweet from President Trump, which said trade discussions with China were "moving along nicely." President Trump is expected to meet with China's President Xi Jinping at the G20 meeting in Buenos Aires on November 30 and Thursday's tweet will build anticipation for that event. It remains to be seen whether Thursday's tweet has merit or was a pre-election political ploy, but traders took it seriously enough to show a short-covering response after two weeks of bearish gloom. Early Thursday, USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of soybeans totaled 14.5 million and 48.3 million bushels, respectively, another bearish showing that has total soybean shipments down 39% in 2018-19 from a year ago. Once again, China remained largely unmentioned, except for a small old-crop cancellation and new-crop purchase. On the other hand, U.S. soybean meal exports are up 34% so far in the new 2018-19 season. Thursday's higher close helped soybeans stay in their sideways trend and remain well above their September low. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $7.44 Wednesday, priced $1.07 below the January contract and still well above the September low of $7.12. There were 813 delivery intentions of November soybeans early Thursday.

Wheat:

December K.C. wheat closed up 8 cents at $5.01 1/4 Thursday, benefiting from a higher price in Europe, a lower U.S. dollar, and indirectly, from the president's tweet. December milling wheat in Paris was up 2.25 euros (1.1%) Thursday as dry weather remains a concern, even though Western Europe has seen beneficial rains lately. Here in the U.S., more rain came to Oklahoma and Texas Wednesday, adding to this fall's planting challenges. An unexpected drop in Thursday's U.S. dollar index also contributed to Thursday's higher close in wheat, just as wheat futures were close to making new lows again this week. Early Thursday, USDA said last week's export sales of wheat totaled 21.4 million bushels, a higher amount than we have seen lately, thanks largely to Japan, the top buyer. Total wheat exports are still dragging however, down 21% in 2018-19 from last year's dismal pace. The trends in both, K.C. and Chicago wheat futures are currently down, but prices are holding sideways, while the trend in Minneapolis wheat is sideways. DTN's National HRW Index closed at $4.61 Wednesday, 33 cents below the December contract and holding above support at $4.50. Similarly, DTN's National SRW Index closed at $4.69 Wednesday.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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