DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The northern branch of the jet stream features a weak trough over Alaska. A ridge over northwest Canada. The polar vortex over north-central and northeast Canada and a weak ridge over Greenland. This is producing cool/cold temperatures in Canada. The southern branch of the jet features a ridge in the western Gulf of Alaska. A trough in the eastern pacific. A weak ridge over the western U.S. A trough over the central U.S. and a strong ridge over the eastern U.S. and western atlantic. The center of subtropical high pressure is located over the Carolinas.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

The U.S. and European models are in good agreement though 6 days. Fair-poor agreement days 7-10. We are leaning more towards the intermediate run (6z) of the U.S. model. During the 6-10 day period the northern branch of the jet stream will feature a ridge over eastern Alaska and western Canada. A trough over central and eastern Canada extending into Greenland. This will produce variable temperatures in western Canada, cool/cold temperatures in central Canada and variable temperatures in the east. The southern branch of the jet will feature a ridge in the eastern Gulf of Alaska. A trough in the eastern pacific. A ridge over the western U.S. A trough over the central and eastern U.S. and a ridge in the western atlantic. The main focus of rainfall associated with this trough will be over the eastern U.S. extending back into the eastern Midwest. Episodes of cooler than normal temperatures behind disturbances can be expected under the trough over the central U.S.

This pattern will feature variable temperatures in the Midwest. Rainfall near to below normal west, near to above normal east. The northern plains will see near to below normal temperatures during the next 5 days, variable days 6-10. Rainfall below normal during the next 5 days, near to below normal days 6-10. The southern plains will see variable temperatures. Rainfall near to above normal during the next 5 days, near to below normal days 6-10. The Delta states will see near to above normal temperatures. Rainfall near to above normal during the next 5 days, near to below normal days 6-10.

Mike Palmerino

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...107 AT DEATH VALLEY CA

LOW THU...16 AT BODIE STATE PARK CA

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7 PM YESTERDAY… 5.43 INCHES, Spencer Iowa.

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in fair to good agreement during the first

2-3 days of the outlook period, only fair agreement during the last part of the period... especially as it concerns the Midwest region. I favor a blend between the models today but with a bias towards the US model.

A strong short wave trough is expected to move across the northern plains and the upper Midwest before lifting northward into Canada during the first few days of the period. Surface high pressure behind this trough will bring some cooler weather southward over the northern plains and then into the Midwest, especially the western Midwest. Rainfall associated with the trough will mainly occur in Canada, however the cold front ahead of the surface high will also lead to scattered thundershowers mainly along, south and east of the Ohio river and through the lower Miss river valley. The European model is somewhat weaker overall with the trough/surface high combination but similar in nature. The US model also shows a secondary trough forming over the eastern Canadian Prairies and dropping southward into the northern Midwest at the end of the period. This suggests a second cold front and more cool to very cool weather for the northern plains and Midwest regions. The European model is further north and west with this system, with a warming trend noted over the south and east Midwest and Delta through the east of the 10 day period.

In either case cool to cold weather appears likely for the Canadian Prairies, the northern plains and probably the northwest Midwest region as well. It is somewhat uncertain as to how cool it may become in the east and south Midwest, the Delta and the central and south plains... especially late in the period. Rainfall potential appears highest for the east and south Midwest and Delta region but if the European model is correct the northwest Midwest may see more rain late in the period with a stronger east and south US ridge slowing down the east and south progression of the secondary cold front.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

TROPICS: There are no organized systems in either the Atlantic or east Pacific regions at this time. The next 5 days may see the formation of a tropical system out over the central Atlantic and also off the west coast of Africa. We may also see a system form well to the south-southeast of southern Baja in the eastern Pacific during this time frame.

DELTA (COTTON,SOYBEAN,WHEAT): Rain, showers and thunderstorms are expected in this area during the weekend and possibly early next week as well. Heavy rain is likely. Rain will slow the harvest of corn and soybeans and the planting effort for winter wheat. Rain is unfavorable for open boll cotton.

MIDWEST (CORN, SOYBEANS): Rainfall totals during the past 72 hours of 2.50-6.50 inches from northern Iowa to southern Minnesota and in southeast South Dakota and northeast Nebraska will likely delay crop harvests. Flooding of fields is likely occurring. More favorable conditions for harvesting in the south and east Midwest. These area may turn wetter early next week.

NORTHERN PLAINS (SPRING WHEAT, CORN, SOYBEANS): Rainfall and strong winds during the past 24 hours. Harvest delays are likely occurring. After today a more favorable weather pattern for crop harvests is expected.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS/SORGHUM): Recent, drier and hotter weather has likely dried soils somewhat for planting winter wheat. Rain and thunderstorms at the end of this week will bring needed moisture to Oklahoma and north-central Texas crop areas.

CHINA (SOYBEANS): Showers and thunderstorms during today will be followed by rain and more cool to cold weather during the weekend...unfavorable for maturing soybeans and likely delaying the harvest.

CHINA (North China Plain): Widespread rain and thunderstorms across the North China Plain during this week, due to the remnants of typhoon Mangkhut, will provide needed moisture for planting winter wheat next month. However, rain likely delays the summer crop harvests and is unfavorable for maturing summer crops...especially open boll cotton. Drier, cooler weather is expected during the weekend and early next week.

AUSTRALIA (WHEAT/COTTON/SORGHUM): Drought, dryness and low irrigation has significantly impacted wheat in northern New South Wales and southern Queensland this season and if the pattern does not change soon this will also impact sorghum and cotton.

Frost and freeze conditions in southern West Australia during this past weekend and in southeast areas of Australia early in this week is unfavorable for wheat, especially reproductive wheat. Reports suggest that barley in southwest Australia may have been impacted much more than wheat since not much of the wheat was flowering at the time of the coldest readings.

INDIAN MONSOON: A westward moving disturbance, now over the central India region, is expected to bring rain and thunderstorms to the north Maharashtra, west Madhya Pradesh, east Gujarat areas at the end of this week or during the weekend. Late Monsoon rains will provide a welcome boost to soil moisture and irrigation in the area. There is a significant chance that this rain would also reach key cotton and groundnut areas of west Gujarat later in the weekend.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (WHEAT, CANOLA): Episodes of light to moderate precipitation and periods of cool or very cool temperatures during the next 7 days.

Precipitation will likely slow harvest operations and field work during this period, although southwest areas show good harvest progress to date as does much of the key Saskatchewan growing belt.

SOUTH and EAST UKRAINE and SOUTH RUSSIA: Much needed rain has occurred in the region during September after a very dry August. The rainfall will improve planting prospects for winter wheat but more rain will be needed to replenish soil moisture. Dryness is a continuing concern in winter grain areas of Central Region Russia and the Black Soils Region of Russia as well as through the Volga valley.

EUROPE: Late summer, early autumn dryness has again increased the risk to winter grains and oilseeds as planting season begins. However one storm has brought rain to England this week with a second storm expected to bring more rain to England and then Belgium, the Netherlands and Germany area later this weekend. It is not certain how much of France will receive generous rains but some might. Strong winds and the heavy rain will also delay autumn fieldwork, including the harvest of summer crops and the planting of winter crops.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

West: Heavy rain and thunderstorms from southeast South Dakota across southern and eastern Minnesota during the past 24 hours. Light to moderate showers with locally heavier through northeast, central and west Iowa and east Nebraska during this time. Only a few light showers southeast Iowa and north Missouri.

Temperatures well above normal from northern Iowa southward. Highs 89 to 95F yesterday.

East: Moderate to locally heavy showers through central and north Wisconsin and southern Michigan during the past 24 hours. A few light showers in southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois. Mainly dry elsewhere in the region.

Temperatures well above normal. Highs yesterday averaging 89 to 95F, except it was 77 to 87F in southern areas of Wisconsin and Michigan.

Forecast...

West: Mostly dry today through Sunday. Temperatures average below normal today and Saturday, near to above normal Sunday.

Scattered to widely scattered light to locally moderate showers developing late Monday or during Monday night. Drier during Tuesday. Scattered to widely scattered showers may redevelop late Wednesday or Wednesday night. Temperatures average above normal Monday, near to below normal Tuesday, near normal Wednesday.

East: Dry or with only a few light showers in the east and southeast areas during today. Light rain or showers through the lower Ohio river valley during Saturday. Showers and light rain may through southeast areas Sunday. Dry elsewhere in the region Sunday. Temperatures average near to above normal west and above normal east today, near to below normal Saturday, near to above normal west and below normal east Sunday.

Scattered showers and thundershowers favoring southern and western areas Monday or Monday night, southern and eastern areas during Tuesday. Drier Wednesday. Rainfall 0.30-1.50 inches and locally heavier, heaviest from south and east Illinois eastward. Temperatures near to above normal.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to average below to possibly well below normal northwest, somewhat more variable south and east. Rainfall near to below normal west, near to above normal east.

Northern Plains (Spring Wheat, Corn, Soybeans, livestock)

Summary: Rain and strong winds during the past 24 hours. Rainfall averaging

0.50-1.10 inches and locally heavier. Temperatures averaged below normal yesterday, especially for the daytime highs.

Forecast: Mostly dry today and Saturday. Dry or with only a few light showers during Sunday. Temperatures average below normal today, near to above normal west and below normal east Saturday, near to above normal Sunday.

Mostly dry or with only a few light showers favoring eastern areas Monday.

Mostly dry Tuesday. Light to locally moderate showers develop through eastern areas Wednesday or Wednesday night. Temperatures average near normal Monday and Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average below normal during this period, possibly well below normal at times. Rainfall below normal west and central areas, near to below normal east.

Central/Southern Plains (Winter Wheat, livestock)

Summary: Rain and strong wind gusts during the past 24 hours. Rainfall averaging 0.25-1.00 inch and locally heavier through northeast, central and southwest Kansas, the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles and west Oklahoma. Light to moderate showers also in southeast Nebraska and in northeast Texas yesterday.

Sprinkles and light showers otherwise. Temperatures averaged well above normal for the morning lows, above to well above normal for the afternoon highs. Highs mostly 90-95F, except east Colorado, northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska saw highs of 76 to 84F yesterday.

Forecast: Moderate to very heavy rain and thunderstorms through Oklahoma except the Panhandle, north-central and northeast Texas today and tonight. Showers and thunderstorms may linger in southeast areas Saturday. Mainly dry Sunday.

Temperatures average near to below normal today and Saturday, near to above normal Sunday.

Scattered to widely scattered light and moderate showers develop over northeast and central areas during Monday or Monday night before settling southward during Tuesday. Drier during Wednesday. Temperatures average near to above normal Monday, near to below normal north and central areas and near to above normal south Tuesday and Wednesday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to below normal north and near to above normal south during this period. Rainfall near to below normal west, near to above normal east.

Joel Burgio can be reached at joel.burgio@dtn.com

(SK)

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