DTN Ag Weather Brief

DTN Ag Weather Brief

Mike Palmerino
By  Mike Palmerino , DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist
METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The northern branch of the jet stream features a weak trough over Alaska. The polar vortex over northern Canada and a weak ridge over Greenland. This is producing hot temperatures over western Canada, warm/hot over central Canada, mild/warm in the east. The southern branch of the jet features a trough in the eastern pacific/Gulf of Alaska. A strong ridge in the western U.S. and a trough in the south-central and eastern U.S. extending into the western atlantic. Centers of subtropical high pressure are located in the southwest U.S. and over the north-central Gulf of Mexico.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

The U.S. and European models are in fair-good agreement during the 6-10 day period. The pattern will feature a strong ridge over the western U.S. and western atlantic. A weak trough between these two ridges will be the focus of scattered showers and thunderstorms which will tend to favor the southeast plains and the southern and eastern Midwest. It will be drier to the north and west with limited rainfall in the northwest Midwest and little rainfall in the northern plains. No persistent very hot weather is expected with this pattern in the Midwest as the strong ridging remains back over the western U.S. However at times the western U.S. ridge will nose into the northern plains producing some significant hot weather.

This pattern will feature near to above normal temperatures in the Midwest. Rainfall near to below normal northwest, near to above normal south and east. The northern plains will see above normal temperatures during the next 5 days, near to above normal days 6-10. Rainfall below normal. The southern plains will see variable temperatures. Rainfall near to below normal during the next 5 days, mostly below normal days 6-10. The Delta states will see variable temperatures during the next 5 days, near to above normal days 6-10. Rainfall near to below normal.

Mike Palmerino

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU…DEATH VALLEY CA 120 DEG

LOW THU...WEST YELLOWSTONE MT 32 DEG

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7 PM YESTERDAY…ORLANDO FL 2.40 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in fair-good agreement during the 6-10 day period. The pattern will feature a strong ridge over the western US and western atlantic. A weak trough between these two ridges will be the focus of scattered showers and thunderstorms which will tend to favor the southeast plains and the southern and eastern Midwest although even in these areas rainfall may be limited. It will be drier to the north and west over the northwest Midwest and northern plains. No persistent very hot weather is expected with this pattern in the Midwest as the strong ridging remains back over the western US. However at times the western US ridge will nose into the northern plains producing some significant hot weather.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

MIDWEST (CORN, SOYBEANS): Favorable weather for filling corn and soybeans with adequate soil moisture and no persistent hot weather. However a drying trend in the northwest Midwest will deplete soil moisture.

NORTHERN PLAINS (SPRING WHEAT, CORN, SOYBEANS): Episodes of above to much above normal temperatures and mostly dry conditions will deplete soil moisture increasing stress to filling corn and soybeans.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS/SORGHUM): Some stress to filling corn and soybeans during the period but not severe due to the lack of persistent heat and a few showers.

WEST TEXAS (COTTON): Dry conditions or just a few light showers during the next 7 days. Near to below normal temperatures through the weekend will ease stress to irrigated fields. Temperatures trend warmer next week.

EUROPE (WHEAT, CORN, SUGARBEET): Scattered showers and thunderstorms and more moderate temperatures have developed easing crop stress.

AUSTRALIA (WHEAT): The minor northeast areas are being impacted by dryness.

More favorable crop conditions in the major growing areas in the south and west.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (WHEAT, CANOLA): Limited rainfall and episodes of hot weather stress filling wheat and canola in some southern areas.

NORTH CHINA (CORN AND SOYBEANS): Some beneficial showers and thunderstorms are expected throughout the region during the next 5 days.

CENTRAL CHINA (CORN, SOYBEANS, GROUNDUTS, COTTON: Some beneficial showers and thunderstorms during the next 5 days over northern areas.

INDIAN MONSOON: A break in the monsoon in the major oilseed areas of west-central India is depleting soil moisture leading to an increase in temperatures in the Gujarat. Moderate temperatures in the major soybean areas of western Madhya Pradesh implies soil moisture is still adequate with some limited showers and thunderstorms occurring at this time.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

West: Dry conditions. Temperatures near to above normal with highs in the middle 80s to middle 90s f.

East: Dry conditions or just a few light showers with locally heavier.

Temperatures near to above normal with highs of 85-90 f.

Forecast...

West: Dry weather through Sunday. Dry conditions or just a few light showers Monday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday. Light to moderate amounts with locally heavier are expected. Dry conditions or just a few light showers Wednesday. Dry weather Thursday. Temperatures near to above normal through Tuesday with highs in the middle 80s to middle 90s f, variable Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday.

East: Scattered light showers Friday. Dry conditions or just a few light showers Saturday-Monday. Episodes of scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday-Thursday. Light to moderate amounts with locally heavier expected.

Temperatures near to above normal with highs in the middle 80s to low 90s f.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures near to above normal. Rainfall below normal northwest, near to below normal south and east.

Northern Plains (Spring Wheat, Corn, Soybeans, livestock)

Summary: Dry conditions. Temperatures much above normal central and west with highs in the middle 90s to low 100s f. Near to above normal in the east with highs in the middle to upper 80s f.

Forecast: Dry weather through Sunday. Dry conditions or just a few light showers with locally heavier Monday. Dry weather Tuesday-Thursday. Temperatures above to much above normal through Sunday, near to above normal Monday, variable Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday, above to much above normal Thursday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures near to above normal. Rainfall below normal.

Central/Southern Plains (Winter Wheat, livestock)

Summary: Dry conditions. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Dry weather Friday-Saturday. Dry conditions or just a few light showers with locally heavier Sunday-Thursday. Temperatures variable.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures variable. Rainfall below normal.

Mike Palmerino can be reached at michael.palmerino@dtn.com

(SK)

Mike Palmerino