DTN's Quick Takes

Periodic Updates on the Grains, Livestock Futures Markets

Illustration by Nick Scalise

Grains

OMAHA (DTN) -- As we head toward the close, July corn is up 3/4 cents, July soybeans are down 10 3/4 cents, and July K.C. wheat is down 2 1/4 cents. Numerous Twitter sources say the National Oilseeds Processors estimated 163.6 million bushels of soybeans were crushed in May, up 10% from a year ago, but less than expected. Soybean oil stocks fell to 1.856 billion pounds. Soybean prices did not show much reaction to the numbers, remain lower with ongoing concerns about trade with China. Friday's June U.S. dollar index is quiet while outside commodities are mixed.

Posted 10:35 -- July corn is up 4 3/4 cents, July soybeans are down 5 cents, July K.C. wheat is up 1 3/4 cents and July Chicago wheat is up 3 1/2 cents. The corn market recovered, turning its attention to the forecast for hot weather this weekend in the Midwest, possibly adding stress on corn in the drier areas of the Corn Belt. Soybeans recovered from the sharp losses overnight and on the open, but still remain lower as the market is nervous about what China may do to retaliate against U.S. proposed tariffs. Winter wheat markets have recovered with corn, but heading into the weekend, we could see pressure ahead of a favorable harvest weekend. The U.S. dollar is still lower, down 0.14.

Posted 08:36 -- After the 8:30 a.m. open, July corn is down 6 cents, July soybeans are down 21 cents, July K.C. wheat is down 14 cents and Minneapolis July is down 9 cents. China has made it clear they will retaliate against the U.S. if the proposed 25% tariff on $50 billion of Chinese goods is implemented, sending U.S. soybean prices to fall to new lows. Corn is following soybeans and wheat lower until the weather becomes an issue for the new-crop, which currently poses no threats. Winter wheat remains under pressure as harvest moves through Kansas. The Northern Plains received severe weather Thursday night with hail and wind damage reported along the northern tier of North Dakota along the Canadian border. The U.S. dollar has moved lower and is down 0.178.

Livestock

Posted 11:54 -- Triple-digit gains continue to hold in cattle futures through the end of the morning. This is expected to carry market support into closing bell with the potential for increased market activity to develop early next week. August live cattle futures are trading $2.80 per hundredweight (cwt) higher, with feeder cattle futures trading nearly $4 per cwt in spot-month contracts. Even though lean hog futures have seen moderate gains, the pullback from losses seen earlier in the week as well as early Friday morning is helping to bring underlying support back into the market.

Posted 10:41 -- Triple-digit gains are now being seen in the cattle trade. The sharp losses seen earlier in the week seem to have caused the very limited trade to quickly develop across the complex. August live cattle futures are leading the live cattle trade higher with a $2.60-per-hundredweight (cwt) rally. Feeder cattle futures are leading the charge higher with gains of $3 to $3.40 per cwt seen in nearby contracts. This unchecked buyer support is likely to add volatility to the market not only through the rest of the day, but also early next week. It has been hard for lean hog futures not to get caught up in the market emotion, which is helping to pull prices back from moderate-to-strong losses midmorning.

Posted 09:43 -- Early market pressure and selling activity quickly ran out of gas, allowing buyers to step back into the market and fill the vacuum through the first hour of trade. Trade volume remains extremely light, which is creating additional softness through the entire complex. Feeder cattle futures are trading as much as $1.17 per hundredweight higher in front-month August futures, which is helping to spark light buyer support in live cattle trade. Lean hog futures remain mixed in a narrow range, but well off of session lows seen early Friday morning. Limited trade activity is likely to be the main focus and driver of market action.

(BAS)